France 2012: the official thread

[Simfan34]

If Hollande is as bad as I think he'll be perhaps Sarko will make a comeback in 2017? Or do French politics not work like that? Chances are there won't be a UMP in 2017.

[You kip if you want to...]

Sort've OT, but have any good viral videos gone round this election? Like, skits.

[DL]

Wildly unpopular -> At 47% (or at least 46%)

Not exactly a huge margin to make up with a debate against a weak performer forthcoming.

French presidential elections are like US presidential elections - the loser is always guaranteed an absolute minimum 45/46 percent of the vote. In 2008 despite being from the same party as Bush being the most hated President in American history and despite a Vice-Presidential running mate like Sarah Palin who was an object of ridicule and complete crackpot - McCain still got 46% of the vote.

By French standards, if Sarkozy loses 54-46% it will be regarded as a landslide

[Tender Branson]

The mini-mini-Sarko-poll-bump has now stopped:

54-46 Hollande (new IFOP poll)

http://fr.news.yahoo.com/sondage-hollande-vainqueur-face-%C3%A0-sarkozy-080611570.html

53.5-46.5 Hollande (new BVA poll)

http://www.ladepeche.fr/article/2012/05/02/1343055-sondage-hollande-toujours-en-tete.html

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Wildly unpopular -> At 47% (or at least 46%)

Not exactly a huge margin to make up with a debate against a weak performer forthcoming.

French presidential elections are like US presidential elections - the loser is always guaranteed an absolute minimum 45/46 percent of the vote. In 2008 despite being from the same party as Bush being the most hated President in American history and despite a Vice-Presidential running mate like Sarah Palin who was an object of ridicule and complete crackpot - McCain still got 46% of the vote.

By French standards, if Sarkozy loses 54-46% it will be regarded as a landslide

You might want to read up on the 2002 French presidential election.

And I'm sure Obama would have absolutely crushed McCain if they were running in France.

[Nagas]

Wildly unpopular -> At 47% (or at least 46%)

Not exactly a huge margin to make up with a debate against a weak performer forthcoming.

French presidential elections are like US presidential elections - the loser is always guaranteed an absolute minimum 45/46 percent of the vote. In 2008 despite being from the same party as Bush being the most hated President in American history and despite a Vice-Presidential running mate like Sarah Palin who was an object of ridicule and complete crackpot - McCain still got 46% of the vote.

By French standards, if Sarkozy loses 54-46% it will be regarded as a landslide

You might want to read up on the 2002 French presidential election.

2002 seems to be the exception, not the rule.

[Senator Kalwejt]

If Hollande is as bad as I think he'll be perhaps Sarko will make a comeback in 2017? Or do French politics not work like that?

Well, Giscard seriously considered running again in 1995 (and hoped to become Prime Minister in 1993).

Wildly unpopular -> At 47% (or at least 46%)

Not exactly a huge margin to make up with a debate against a weak performer forthcoming.

French presidential elections are like US presidential elections - the loser is always guaranteed an absolute minimum 45/46 percent of the vote. In 2008 despite being from the same party as Bush being the most hated President in American history and despite a Vice-Presidential running mate like Sarah Palin who was an object of ridicule and complete crackpot - McCain still got 46% of the vote.

By French standards, if Sarkozy loses 54-46% it will be regarded as a landslide

Indeed. For example, Mitterrand was fairly popular incumbent in 1988 and was expected to win rather easily. He got 54.02% and that was a landslide by French standards.

You might want to read up on the 2002 French presidential election.

An incumbent vs. an extremist, who suddenly advanced into second round. Kind of like 1991 Louisiana gubernatorial ("vote for crook, not a fascist"). Chirac got his 82.21% not because he was so popular, but because everyone (outside of FN, of course) hated his opponent. It would look very diffrent with regular gaullist vs. socialist runoff.

And Chirac was hardly popular. In fact, he got the lowest support for an incumbent President in the first round.

When we're talking about current election, all comparisions to the fluke of 2002 are irrevelant.

[Tender Branson]

Today is the TV debate apparently.

And it's shown on TV5 Europe @ 9pm local time.

Too bad I can't understand French, so watching it is pretty much useless because I won't understand what they are saying or if one of them makes a major gaffe (which will probably not happen anyway because they are no Rick Perrys).

Why isn't the German-French ARTE showing the debate and employing some French-German translators during the debate ? (Checked their schedule, not happening though.)

So, does anyone of the French posters here know a stream that translates the debate into German or English ?

[Californian Tony]

I've no idea. I doubt you'll find any translated live stream, though maybe there's some chance of a translated version being posted on youtube.

As for me, obviously I'm going to watch it. Conventional wisdom seems to be that Sarkozy will win it because he is more energic and pugnacious, but if he is too aggressive this might easily backfire (see, quite ironically, the 2007 debate with an infuriated Royal facing a phlegmatic Sarko).

[Tender Branson]

Hmm, when I checked the ARTE teletext in the morning, it said that they won't broadcast the debate.

On their homepage it now says they will broadcast it (maybe only over the Internet, because their TV schedule on their website still says nothing about the debate) ...

And it will have a simultaneos French-German translation:

http://www.arte.tv/de/Praesidentschaftswahl-2012--Chat-und-Debatte-live/6623018.html#comment-516639784

[You kip if you want to...]

Any streams online?

[Tender Branson]

Any streams online?

ARTE (French with German translation)
TV5 Europe

And maybe France24 too.

[RogueBeaver]

Any French-language livestreams? (Links if possible)

[Californian Tony]

Any French-language livestreams? (Links if possible)

Those Tender mentioned are probably in French.

[You kip if you want to...]

http://www.france24.com/fr/tv-en-direct-chaine-live - French

[Leftbehind]

Any with English? Pretty sure the BBC broadcast the last debate, but it seems we can't even expect that anymore.

[RogueBeaver]

France 24 I'm guessing.

Also, thanks for the link.

[You kip if you want to...]

Any with English? Pretty sure the BBC broadcast the last debate, but it seems we can't even expect that anymore.

Try flicking about some of the random news channels if you have Virgin or Sky. CNN International maybe?

[Keystone Phil]

Can someone explain why the debate is just three days before the election?

[You kip if you want to...]

Can someone explain why the debate is just three days before the election?

I suppose so it's fresh in people's minds. I'm pretty sure most European countries have them pretty close to Election Day.

[Californian Tony]

Can someone explain why the debate is just three days before the election?

Tradition.


Anyways, just watching Sarko's TV clip, and it's basically a negative spot ! I don't get it. I thought they were banned ? Did Sarko just break the law ?

[Tender Branson]

Can someone explain why the debate is just three days before the election?

Because it's not the US and French voters (or most voters anywhere) don't like election campaigns that last 2 years.

[Tender Branson]

ARTE now says they are not allowed to stream the debate ...

WTF ?

[Californian Tony]

ARTE now says they are not allowed to stream the debate ...

WTF ?

Damn !

[Tender Branson]

ARTE now says they are not allowed to stream the debate ...

WTF ?

Damn !

Fuckers:

Débat Sarkozy / Hollande

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