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| | |-+  France 2012: the official thread
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Author Topic: France 2012: the official thread  (Read 132108 times)
Governor Varavour
Simfan34
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« Reply #2000 on: May 01, 2012, 05:06:54 pm »
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If Hollande is as bad as I think he'll be perhaps Sarko will make a comeback in 2017? Or do French politics not work like that? Chances are there won't be a UMP in 2017.
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« Reply #2001 on: May 01, 2012, 05:08:32 pm »
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Sort've OT, but have any good viral videos gone round this election? Like, skits.
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« Reply #2002 on: May 01, 2012, 10:49:29 pm »
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Wildly unpopular -> At 47% (or at least 46%)

Not exactly a huge margin to make up with a debate against a weak performer forthcoming.

French presidential elections are like US presidential elections - the loser is always guaranteed an absolute minimum 45/46 percent of the vote. In 2008 despite being from the same party as Bush being the most hated President in American history and despite a Vice-Presidential running mate like Sarah Palin who was an object of ridicule and complete crackpot - McCain still got 46% of the vote.

By French standards, if Sarkozy loses 54-46% it will be regarded as a landslide
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #2003 on: May 02, 2012, 12:16:45 am »
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The mini-mini-Sarko-poll-bump has now stopped:

54-46 Hollande (new IFOP poll)

http://fr.news.yahoo.com/sondage-hollande-vainqueur-face-%C3%A0-sarkozy-080611570.html

53.5-46.5 Hollande (new BVA poll)

http://www.ladepeche.fr/article/2012/05/02/1343055-sondage-hollande-toujours-en-tete.html
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« Reply #2004 on: May 02, 2012, 12:20:33 am »
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Wildly unpopular -> At 47% (or at least 46%)

Not exactly a huge margin to make up with a debate against a weak performer forthcoming.

French presidential elections are like US presidential elections - the loser is always guaranteed an absolute minimum 45/46 percent of the vote. In 2008 despite being from the same party as Bush being the most hated President in American history and despite a Vice-Presidential running mate like Sarah Palin who was an object of ridicule and complete crackpot - McCain still got 46% of the vote.

By French standards, if Sarkozy loses 54-46% it will be regarded as a landslide

You might want to read up on the 2002 French presidential election.

And I'm sure Obama would have absolutely crushed McCain if they were running in France.
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« Reply #2005 on: May 02, 2012, 12:21:09 am »
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Wildly unpopular -> At 47% (or at least 46%)

Not exactly a huge margin to make up with a debate against a weak performer forthcoming.

French presidential elections are like US presidential elections - the loser is always guaranteed an absolute minimum 45/46 percent of the vote. In 2008 despite being from the same party as Bush being the most hated President in American history and despite a Vice-Presidential running mate like Sarah Palin who was an object of ridicule and complete crackpot - McCain still got 46% of the vote.

By French standards, if Sarkozy loses 54-46% it will be regarded as a landslide

You might want to read up on the 2002 French presidential election.

2002 seems to be the exception, not the rule.
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« Reply #2006 on: May 02, 2012, 02:28:48 am »
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If Hollande is as bad as I think he'll be perhaps Sarko will make a comeback in 2017? Or do French politics not work like that?

Well, Giscard seriously considered running again in 1995 (and hoped to become Prime Minister in 1993).



Wildly unpopular -> At 47% (or at least 46%)

Not exactly a huge margin to make up with a debate against a weak performer forthcoming.

French presidential elections are like US presidential elections - the loser is always guaranteed an absolute minimum 45/46 percent of the vote. In 2008 despite being from the same party as Bush being the most hated President in American history and despite a Vice-Presidential running mate like Sarah Palin who was an object of ridicule and complete crackpot - McCain still got 46% of the vote.

By French standards, if Sarkozy loses 54-46% it will be regarded as a landslide

Indeed. For example, Mitterrand was fairly popular incumbent in 1988 and was expected to win rather easily. He got 54.02% and that was a landslide by French standards.

You might want to read up on the 2002 French presidential election.

An incumbent vs. an extremist, who suddenly advanced into second round. Kind of like 1991 Louisiana gubernatorial ("vote for crook, not a fascist"). Chirac got his 82.21% not because he was so popular, but because everyone (outside of FN, of course) hated his opponent. It would look very diffrent with regular gaullist vs. socialist runoff.

And Chirac was hardly popular. In fact, he got the lowest support for an incumbent President in the first round.

When we're talking about current election, all comparisions to the fluke of 2002 are irrevelant.
« Last Edit: May 02, 2012, 02:36:46 am by Allez Hollande »Logged

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« Reply #2007 on: May 02, 2012, 11:44:28 am »
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Today is the TV debate apparently.

And it's shown on TV5 Europe @ 9pm local time.

Too bad I can't understand French, so watching it is pretty much useless because I won't understand what they are saying or if one of them makes a major gaffe (which will probably not happen anyway because they are no Rick Perrys).

Why isn't the German-French ARTE showing the debate and employing some French-German translators during the debate ? (Checked their schedule, not happening though.)

So, does anyone of the French posters here know a stream that translates the debate into German or English ? Huh
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« Reply #2008 on: May 02, 2012, 11:51:36 am »
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I've no idea. I doubt you'll find any translated live stream, though maybe there's some chance of a translated version being posted on youtube.

As for me, obviously I'm going to watch it. Conventional wisdom seems to be that Sarkozy will win it because he is more energic and pugnacious, but if he is too aggressive this might easily backfire (see, quite ironically, the 2007 debate with an infuriated Royal facing a phlegmatic Sarko).
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HashCAN     americans saw the EP elections and people cringing at Europeans being morons and electing Nazis; so they massively said "NO" and decided to prove that they're still bigger morons



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« Reply #2009 on: May 02, 2012, 12:24:51 pm »
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Hmm, when I checked the ARTE teletext in the morning, it said that they won't broadcast the debate.

On their homepage it now says they will broadcast it (maybe only over the Internet, because their TV schedule on their website still says nothing about the debate) ... Smiley

And it will have a simultaneos French-German translation:

http://www.arte.tv/de/Praesidentschaftswahl-2012--Chat-und-Debatte-live/6623018.html#comment-516639784
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« Reply #2010 on: May 02, 2012, 12:28:14 pm »
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Any streams online?
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« Reply #2011 on: May 02, 2012, 12:38:16 pm »
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Any streams online?

ARTE (French with German translation)
TV5 Europe

And maybe France24 too.
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« Reply #2012 on: May 02, 2012, 12:54:58 pm »
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Any French-language livestreams? (Links if possible)
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« Reply #2013 on: May 02, 2012, 01:02:42 pm »
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Any French-language livestreams? (Links if possible)

Those Tender mentioned are probably in French.
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HashCAN     americans saw the EP elections and people cringing at Europeans being morons and electing Nazis; so they massively said "NO" and decided to prove that they're still bigger morons



"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

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« Reply #2014 on: May 02, 2012, 01:04:26 pm »
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http://www.france24.com/fr/tv-en-direct-chaine-live - French
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« Reply #2015 on: May 02, 2012, 01:09:53 pm »
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Any with English? Pretty sure the BBC broadcast the last debate, but it seems we can't even expect that anymore.
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« Reply #2016 on: May 02, 2012, 01:13:01 pm »
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France 24 I'm guessing.

Also, thanks for the link.
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7.35, 3.65

« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  » - Charles de Gaulle



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« Reply #2017 on: May 02, 2012, 01:19:46 pm »
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Any with English? Pretty sure the BBC broadcast the last debate, but it seems we can't even expect that anymore.

Try flicking about some of the random news channels if you have Virgin or Sky. CNN International maybe?
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #2018 on: May 02, 2012, 01:21:36 pm »
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Can someone explain why the debate is just three days before the election?
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« Reply #2019 on: May 02, 2012, 01:36:58 pm »
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Can someone explain why the debate is just three days before the election?

I suppose so it's fresh in people's minds. I'm pretty sure most European countries have them pretty close to Election Day.
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Antonio V
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« Reply #2020 on: May 02, 2012, 01:41:07 pm »
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Can someone explain why the debate is just three days before the election?

Tradition.


Anyways, just watching Sarko's TV clip, and it's basically a negative spot ! I don't get it. I thought they were banned ? Did Sarko just break the law ? Huh
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HashCAN     americans saw the EP elections and people cringing at Europeans being morons and electing Nazis; so they massively said "NO" and decided to prove that they're still bigger morons



"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

Peppino, from the movie Baaria
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« Reply #2021 on: May 02, 2012, 01:42:43 pm »
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Can someone explain why the debate is just three days before the election?

Because it's not the US and French voters (or most voters anywhere) don't like election campaigns that last 2 years.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #2022 on: May 02, 2012, 01:43:21 pm »
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ARTE now says they are not allowed to stream the debate ... Sad

WTF ?
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Antonio V
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« Reply #2023 on: May 02, 2012, 01:44:03 pm »
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ARTE now says they are not allowed to stream the debate ... Sad

WTF ?

Damn !
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HashCAN     americans saw the EP elections and people cringing at Europeans being morons and electing Nazis; so they massively said "NO" and decided to prove that they're still bigger morons



"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

Peppino, from the movie Baaria
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« Reply #2024 on: May 02, 2012, 01:45:56 pm »
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ARTE now says they are not allowed to stream the debate ... Sad

WTF ?

Damn !

Fuckers:

Quote
Débat Sarkozy / Hollande

Pour des raisons indépendantes de notre volonté, nous ne sommes plus autorisés à diffuser le débat prévu ce soir.

Le chat est en conséquence annulé. Nous vous prions de nous excuser pour ce désagrément.

Le dossier Présidentielle reste accessible
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