France 2012: the official thread

[Keystone Phil]

Highlighted to make it clearer. Doesn't that sound clear in English ? Because if I spelt the sentence in French there would be no doubt on who the "him" would refer to.

That sentence should probably be written:

If someone is able to explain to me how(Sarkozy could win re-election), I'd consider him the greatest psephologist of all time.

Sarkozy will be re-elected.

Explain.

What is with you people? What needs to be explained? I believe he will receive more votes in Sunday's election than Francois Hollande. Disagree? Cool. Not sure what has to be explained though.

[ModerateCoward]

I think Sarkozy is done now that Bayrou endorsed Hollande.

[RogueBeaver]

Even if this is a mini-bump (which I won't believe until another poll backs it up) there isn't enough time when voting starts in under 3 days. Has France ever had a Dewey Defeats Truman moment? I'd be thrilled if Sarko pulls it out but will only believe it when I see it.

[Meeker]

Wake me up when Sarkozy actually ties or leads a poll.

[Proud Lieberal from Northeast]

Sarkozy will be re-elected.

OK, you posted it for like 4th time now.

Is there any reason you keep posting this one-liner outside of trolling?

[Keystone Phil]

Sarkozy will be re-elected.

OK, you posted it for like 4th time now.

Is there any reason you keep posting this one-liner outside of trolling?

Oh, yeah, there is a reason: because I think he's going to win. Next stupid question, please...

[Χahar]

Don't feed the troll, kids

[Keystone Phil]

Don't feed the troll, kids

"Explain."

[DL]

Sarkozy will be re-elected.

OK, you posted it for like 4th time now.

Is there any reason you keep posting this one-liner outside of trolling?

Oh, yeah, there is a reason: because I think he's going to win. Next stupid question, please...

BTW: Have you figured out how to get santorum stains out of your bed sheets? What's the best detergent?

[Keystone Phil]

Sarkozy will be re-elected.

OK, you posted it for like 4th time now.

Is there any reason you keep posting this one-liner outside of trolling?

Oh, yeah, there is a reason: because I think he's going to win. Next stupid question, please...

BTW: Have you figured out how to get santorum stains out of your bed sheets? What's the best detergent?

My detractors have achieved the moral high ground here!

[Senator Sbane]

Phil, are you just going by your gut with these predictions. I guess you mentioned the "shy Sarkozy effect", but is there any proof of that? Others seem to have debunked that.....Will you get mad if people make fun of you on May 6th?

[Keystone Phil]

Will you get mad if people make fun of you on May 6th?

I'm confused. Now we make fun of people when their predictions are correct?

For those that make fun of me either way for political predictions, I think they need to seek out The Professor for advice in certain areas.

[Senator Sbane]

Will you get mad if people make fun of you on May 6th?

I'm confused. Now we make fun of people when their predictions are correct?

For those that make fun of me either way for political predictions, I think they need to seek out The Professor for advice in certain areas.

Hey if you made a thoughtful prediction backed up by some evidence of thought.....

[Keystone Phil]

Will you get mad if people make fun of you on May 6th?

I'm confused. Now we make fun of people when their predictions are correct?

For those that make fun of me either way for political predictions, I think they need to seek out The Professor for advice in certain areas.

Hey if you made a thoughtful prediction backed up by some evidence of thought.....

"Thoughtful prediction": "OBVIOUSLY HOLLANDE BY SIX TO EIGHT POINTS. SARKOZY IS DONE! ALLEZ FRANCOIS!"

Please don't seriously try to tell me that anything other than that would be deemed "thoughtful" by the denizens of this board. The predictions, signatures, commentary, etc. have been anything but thoughtful.

[big bad fab]

If someone is able to explain me why, I'll consider him the greatest psephologist of all times.

Sarkozy ?

Highlighted to make it clearer. Doesn't that sound clear in English ? Because if I spelt the sentence in French there would be no doubt on who the "him" would refer to.

OK, I read the sentence too fast. But now I understand what you wanna say.

Why is Sarkozy closing the gap ?

Sarkozy collecting most of the right- and center-voters of which there are a lot according to the first round.

Even if 15% of Melenchon's voters vote for Sarkozy, Hollande could be in trouble if many LePen voters also hold their noses and vote for Sarkozy.

But, the good thing is that Bayrou's decision today might have saved Hollande from a really close race.

Bayrou's endorsement won't have any effect: it just pollutes the last days of campaign for Sarkozy.
We are on something like 53-47 currently (my last tracker tomorrow ).

Have just published the latest polls on my blog. CSA 53-47, LH2 53-47, OpinionWay 52.5-47.5, IFOP 53-47, Harris 53-47.
Last BVA was 53.5-46.5 and last IPSOS 53-47.
Let's wait for IFOP tomorrow and maybe IPSOS and TNS-Sofres.

(Math would ba ble to tell us which polls are planned, but he doesn't post any longer since I've noticed he stole one article from my blog Too bad !)

[Hashemite]

Locking this thread pre-emptively seems like a nice idea.

[Meeker]

Locking this thread pre-emptively seems like a nice idea.

Yeah, I think any insightful discussion has probably come to a close.

[big bad fab]

Why can't the troll go to the prediction thread I've opened ?
It's not aimed to remain a very serious and useful thread, so... go there, please

[Keystone Phil]

Why can't the troll go to the prediction thread I've opened ?

Wow. Ok, dude.

[Bacon King]

Enter, before Keystone Phil comes in to say Sarkozy will win re-election:

http://www.lefigaro.fr/assets/pdf/barometre-de-la-presidentielle-2012-V9.pdf

Wow, a bit interesting. Comparing OpinionWay's poll from last week to today, it looks like most of the 1.5 point swing is due to a few very specific shifts.

There's a huge change for younger voters; 18-24 year olds go from 61% Hollande to 54% Hollande. I don't know if that's just due to a small sub-sample size or what.

There's a significant shift in Le Pen's supporters; Hollande loses eight points with most of the change due to an increase number of PanzerGirl voters saying they'll abstain. That makes sense.

However, Melenchon's supporters went from 91% Hollande, 2% Sarko, 7% not voting, to 77% Hollande, 9% Sarkozy, 14% not voting. This seems a bit off. I can understand more leftists deciding to stay home, but what sort of Melenchon voter would actually be voting for Sarko over Hollande?

[asexual trans victimologist]

Will you get mad if people make fun of you on May 6th?

I'm confused. Now we make fun of people when their predictions are correct?

For those that make fun of me either way for political predictions, I think they need to seek out The Professor for advice in certain areas.

Hey if you made a thoughtful prediction backed up by some evidence of thought.....

"Thoughtful prediction": "OBVIOUSLY HOLLANDE BY SIX TO EIGHT POINTS. SARKOZY IS DONE! ALLEZ FRANCOIS!"

The thing is, content-wise, that actually is thoughtful in that it's based on evidence and facts, although four to six is looking more likely now.

[Tender Branson]

There are 4 surveys out now (all conducted yesterday) and Sarkozy has an average of 47.1%

I would probably start to worry a bit if he breaks 48%, but I think Hollande has this now.

[Tender Branson]

Germans strongly favor Sarkozy over Hollande (quite surprising):

(Reuters) - A majority of Germans across the political spectrum support Chancellor Angela Merkel's insistence that the euro zone stick with tough austerity measures to reduce its heavy debt load, according to a poll published on Friday.

The results of the Infratest Dimap survey, published in Die Welt newspaper, will provide political cover for Merkel as she faces increased calls in the euro zone for a softening of fiscal discipline and a greater emphasis on boosting economic growth.

The poll showed 55 percent of Germans favor keeping the focus on budget discipline - including a majority of those supporting the main opposition parties - and only 33 percent back growth initiatives funded by new credits.

Germany's own economy, the largest in Europe, is performing strongly despite the euro zone debt crisis and unemployment is at two-decade lows. But German taxpayers are unhappy about having to bail out heavily indebted countries such as Greece which many here regard as spendthrift and feckless.

Socialist candidate Francois Hollande, tipped to win France's presidential runoff on Sunday, has said he will make reviving economic growth his top priority if elected and has criticized Merkel's heavy focus on budget cuts and tax hikes.

The survey showed 50 percent of Germans polled backed French President Nicolas Sarkozy, a centre-right ally of Merkel, for a second five-year term, while only 24 percent preferred Hollande.

At home, Merkel's Christian Democrats (CDU) remain the most popular party with 34 percent, comfortably ahead of the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) at 28 percent, the poll showed.

But the CDU's current coalition ally, the liberal Free Democrats, would win only 4 percent of the vote, below the 5 percent threshold for entering parliament. This would force Merkel to look for another coalition partner.

Political analysts see a 'grand coalition' of the CDU and the SPD as the most likely alternative if the FDP is ousted from the Bundestag lower house after the 2013 national election.

The Infratest Dimap poll was conducted among 1,004 people on April 30 and May 1.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/04/us-germany-austerity-poll-idUSBRE8430KZ20120504

[Californian Tony]

BTW, some TV journalists have been assaulted by UMP militants during a Sarkozy meeting yesterday. It apparently hasn't had been much reported in the news, but I still find it quite telling about the feelings among Sarko's campaign.

[You kip if you want to...]

Sky just pronounced Bayrou as Bi-roo. Christ.