France 2012: the official thread

[Californian Tony]

Sky just pronounced Bayrou as Bi-roo. Christ.

You mean like Bee-roo ?

The correct pronounciation is obviously By-roo, though some in France still call him Beh-roo.

[You kip if you want to...]

Sky just pronounced Bayrou as Bi-roo. Christ.

You mean like Bee-roo ?

The correct pronounciation is obviously By-roo, though some in France still call him Beh-roo.

Bee-roo, yeh

[Keystone Phil]

Sky just pronounced Bayrou as Bi-roo. Christ.

Oh, what animals!

[RogueBeaver]

They should really pronounce it "perennial candidate"

[Californian Tony]

They should really pronounce it "perennial candidate"

"Perennial candidate" ? You don't know France.

Laguiller : 6 candidacies (74, 81, 88, 95, 02, 07)
Le Pen : 5 candidacies (74, 88, 95, 02, 07)
Mitterrand : 4 candidacies (65, 74, 81, 88)
Chirac : 4 candidacies (81, 88, 95, 02)

Bayrou ran only 3 times...

[Ethelberth]

Correct answer is probably, [bajru].

[Californian Tony]

Correct answer is probably, [bajru].

Exactly. This might, however, confuse our Anglo posters, who are used to speak a language whose phonetics are so ridiculously f**ked up.

[Tender Branson]

New IFOP poll:

52% Hollande
48% Sarkozy

[Californian Tony]

Yeah, Phil, we know, Sarkozy will be reelected.

[Senator MaxQue]

What?
Bayrou isn't pronounced Beh-rou?

[Californian Tony]

What?
Bayrou isn't pronounced Beh-rou?

Nope, but this is the kind of mistake every single journalist makes. Sort of how everybody called Mitterrand Mitt'rand.

[Insula Dei]

Yeah I noticed someone pronouncing it Beh-rou as well on France 2 and thinking to myself that I had been mispronouncing the name for all that time. I feel vindicated now.

[Beet]

Come on guys, Hollande can do this. He can do this!!

[Californian Tony]

Come on guys, Hollande can do this. He can do this!!

No, no no. You're wrong. He must do this.

[You kip if you want to...]

Come on guys, Hollande can do this. He can do this!!

No, no no. You're wrong. He must do this.

Come on, what are the chances that Nicolas gain 2% in two days?

[Hashemite]

At least the map won't be boring as hell.

Not to sound like a pedant, but I basically predicted a fairly close finish when every leftie had masturbatory moments over the 60-40 and 62-38 polls.

[Californian Tony]

At least the map won't be boring as hell.

Not to sound like a pedant, but I basically predicted a fairly close finish when every leftie had masturbatory moments over the 60-40 and 62-38 polls.

I never thought this would last. But 54/46 (or even 55/45) was a fairly probably outcome, especially after Sarko was unable to even come ahead of the first round.

[Bacon King]

New IFOP poll:

52% Hollande
48% Sarkozy

BK poll analysis (which usually goes ignored, but still)

Shift is mostly due to Bayrou voters shifting from supporting Hollande to abstaining, and previously abstentionist Le Pen voters breaking to Sarkozy. Fairly expected I suppose. 

[big bad fab]

BREAKING NEWS !
2012 Big Bad Tracker #55 - 4 May 2012   


My very last tracker !!!       

With raw datas :
Hollande 52.95
Sarkozy 47.05

With vote transfers datas applied to real first round results:
Hollande 52.97
Sarkozy 47.03

No, I haven't cheated.

Simple average of all the last polls of each pollster, without weighting: 52.75 / 47.25
Weighted average of all the last polls of each pollster: 52.70 / 47.30

Now, you can go to the prediction thread and put all the mess you want

[Vasall des Midas]

A last minute shift toward closeness, in a race between two long established candidates that ought to be easily pollable, but not quite towards "up for grabs now!" territory.

1/6 says the pollsters are right. 1/5 says they're being way to cautious and will have egg on their face when Sarkozy comes within a point or wins tomorrow. 19/30 says they're just making it up and Hollande will win by 54.5-45.5 just like they predicted last week.

[Californian Tony]

I still don't get this.

[Bacon King]

I still don't get this.

The trend isn't that odd. As I've looked at the polls over the last few weeks, while there's been a lot of statistical noise in the break-downs, there's one trend that's generally been consistent. The closer the election has gotten, more and more Le Pen voters are deciding to support Sarkozy instead of not voting in the second round.

[Californian Tony]

Polls say Sarko has been gaining ground on both Le Pen and Bayrou voters. But I still fail to see a reason why he would. Well, maybe a couple Le Pen voters could like his recent populist turn, but most of them should see it as opportunist pandering (especially since he was already assured to take a half of them, the other half should be harsher for him). As for Bayrou voters : .

[Keystone Phil]

Ah, tomorrow...

[ZuWo]

I've read that the polls after the debate showed that while Hollande was considered slightly more convincing than Sarkozy in the presidential debate overall, a majority of Bayrou and Le Pen voters thought Sarkozy did better on that front. This may explain why Sarkozy appears to be gaining votes both among Bayrou and Le Pen voters.