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| | |-+  France 2012: the official thread
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Author Topic: France 2012: the official thread  (Read 121483 times)
Antonio V
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« Reply #2100 on: May 04, 2012, 09:37:10 am »
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Sky just pronounced Bayrou as Bi-roo. Christ.

You mean like Bee-roo ?

The correct pronounciation is obviously By-roo, though some in France still call him Beh-roo.
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22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

It REALLY is.



"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

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« Reply #2101 on: May 04, 2012, 09:41:17 am »
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Sky just pronounced Bayrou as Bi-roo. Christ.

You mean like Bee-roo ?

The correct pronounciation is obviously By-roo, though some in France still call him Beh-roo.

Bee-roo, yeh
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #2102 on: May 04, 2012, 09:45:21 am »
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Sky just pronounced Bayrou as Bi-roo. Christ.

Oh, what animals!
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« Reply #2103 on: May 04, 2012, 09:48:18 am »
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They should really pronounce it "perennial candidate"
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Antonio V
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« Reply #2104 on: May 04, 2012, 09:52:49 am »
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They should really pronounce it "perennial candidate"

"Perennial candidate" ? You don't know France.

Laguiller : 6 candidacies (74, 81, 88, 95, 02, 07)
Le Pen : 5 candidacies (74, 88, 95, 02, 07)
Mitterrand : 4 candidacies (65, 74, 81, 88)
Chirac : 4 candidacies (81, 88, 95, 02)

Bayrou ran only 3 times... Tongue
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22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

It REALLY is.



"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

Peppino, from the movie Baaria
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« Reply #2105 on: May 04, 2012, 10:15:52 am »
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Correct answer is probably, [bajru].
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Antonio V
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« Reply #2106 on: May 04, 2012, 10:24:43 am »
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Correct answer is probably, [bajru].

Exactly. This might, however, confuse our Anglo posters, who are used to speak a language whose phonetics are so ridiculously f**ked up. Tongue
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22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

It REALLY is.



"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

Peppino, from the movie Baaria
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« Reply #2107 on: May 04, 2012, 11:35:24 am »
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New IFOP poll:

52% Hollande
48% Sarkozy
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Antonio V
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« Reply #2108 on: May 04, 2012, 11:44:07 am »
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Yeah, Phil, we know, Sarkozy will be reelected.
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22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

It REALLY is.



"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

Peppino, from the movie Baaria
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« Reply #2109 on: May 04, 2012, 11:46:50 am »
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What?
Bayrou isn't pronounced Beh-rou?
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Antonio V
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« Reply #2110 on: May 04, 2012, 11:55:09 am »
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What?
Bayrou isn't pronounced Beh-rou?

Nope, but this is the kind of mistake every single journalist makes. Sort of how everybody called Mitterrand Mitt'rand.
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22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

It REALLY is.



"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

Peppino, from the movie Baaria
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« Reply #2111 on: May 04, 2012, 03:44:35 pm »
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Yeah I noticed someone pronouncing it Beh-rou as well on France 2 and thinking to myself that I had been mispronouncing the name for all that time. I feel vindicated now.
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« Reply #2112 on: May 04, 2012, 03:50:16 pm »
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Come on guys, Hollande can do this. He can do this!!
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Antonio V
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« Reply #2113 on: May 04, 2012, 04:06:35 pm »
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Come on guys, Hollande can do this. He can do this!!

No, no no. You're wrong. He must do this.
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22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

It REALLY is.



"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

Peppino, from the movie Baaria
You kip if you want to...
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« Reply #2114 on: May 04, 2012, 04:16:04 pm »
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Come on guys, Hollande can do this. He can do this!!

No, no no. You're wrong. He must do this.

Come on, what are the chances that Nicolas gain 2% in two days?
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« Reply #2115 on: May 04, 2012, 04:17:40 pm »

At least the map won't be boring as hell.

Not to sound like a pedant, but I basically predicted a fairly close finish when every leftie had masturbatory moments over the 60-40 and 62-38 polls.
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Antonio V
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« Reply #2116 on: May 04, 2012, 04:26:21 pm »
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At least the map won't be boring as hell.

Not to sound like a pedant, but I basically predicted a fairly close finish when every leftie had masturbatory moments over the 60-40 and 62-38 polls.

I never thought this would last. But 54/46 (or even 55/45) was a fairly probably outcome, especially after Sarko was unable to even come ahead of the first round.
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22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

It REALLY is.



"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

Peppino, from the movie Baaria
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« Reply #2117 on: May 04, 2012, 04:29:30 pm »
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New IFOP poll:

52% Hollande
48% Sarkozy

BK poll analysis (which usually goes ignored, but still)

Shift is mostly due to Bayrou voters shifting from supporting Hollande to abstaining, and previously abstentionist Le Pen voters breaking to Sarkozy. Fairly expected I suppose. 
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big bad fab
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« Reply #2118 on: May 04, 2012, 05:10:28 pm »
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BREAKING NEWS !
2012 Big Bad Tracker #55 - 4 May 2012   



My very last tracker !!! Tongue      

With raw datas :
Hollande 52.95
Sarkozy 47.05

With vote transfers datas applied to real first round results:
Hollande 52.97
Sarkozy 47.03

No, I haven't cheated.

Simple average of all the last polls of each pollster, without weighting: 52.75 / 47.25
Weighted average of all the last polls of each pollster: 52.70 / 47.30

Now, you can go to the prediction thread and put all the mess you want Tongue
« Last Edit: May 04, 2012, 06:59:01 pm by big bad fab »Logged

Enjoy the French elections !
Enjoy polling analysis !
Enjoy my tracker !

http://sondages2012.wordpress.com/
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« Reply #2119 on: May 05, 2012, 03:49:33 am »
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A last minute shift toward closeness, in a race between two long established candidates that ought to be easily pollable, but not quite towards "up for grabs now!" territory.

1/6 says the pollsters are right. 1/5 says they're being way to cautious and will have egg on their face when Sarkozy comes within a point or wins tomorrow. 19/30 says they're just making it up and Hollande will win by 54.5-45.5 just like they predicted last week.
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Antonio V
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« Reply #2120 on: May 05, 2012, 04:02:34 am »
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I still don't get this.
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22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

It REALLY is.



"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

Peppino, from the movie Baaria
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« Reply #2121 on: May 05, 2012, 06:23:30 am »
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I still don't get this.

The trend isn't that odd. As I've looked at the polls over the last few weeks, while there's been a lot of statistical noise in the break-downs, there's one trend that's generally been consistent. The closer the election has gotten, more and more Le Pen voters are deciding to support Sarkozy instead of not voting in the second round.
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Antonio V
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« Reply #2122 on: May 05, 2012, 08:19:33 am »
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Polls say Sarko has been gaining ground on both Le Pen and Bayrou voters. But I still fail to see a reason why he would. Well, maybe a couple Le Pen voters could like his recent populist turn, but most of them should see it as opportunist pandering (especially since he was already assured to take a half of them, the other half should be harsher for him). As for Bayrou voters : Huh.
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22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

It REALLY is.



"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

Peppino, from the movie Baaria
Keystone Phil
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« Reply #2123 on: May 05, 2012, 08:20:26 am »
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Ah, tomorrow...
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« Reply #2124 on: May 05, 2012, 09:29:47 am »
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I've read that the polls after the debate showed that while Hollande was considered slightly more convincing than Sarkozy in the presidential debate overall, a majority of Bayrou and Le Pen voters thought Sarkozy did better on that front. This may explain why Sarkozy appears to be gaining votes both among Bayrou and Le Pen voters.
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