France 2012: the official thread

[Beet]

I read an article that said Le Pen was taking some of the Socialists' voters because she promised tariffs. Also she is against the euro.

Suppose that Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Spain and Italy were forced to leave the euro, where would this leave Le Pen? Could the National Front then claim vindication, saying it had been right all along? Or would the mainstream parties be able to adjust to the situation and co-opt the protectionist issue and the euro issue?

[Beet]

What is the position of this Montebourg gentleman on the euro? If he were truly strong in his principles he would not have endorsed Hollande. The PS has been completely captured by the neo-liberals.

[Beet]

Is "European protectionism" kind of like the preservation of free trade within Europe but raising tariff barriers to countries outside it?

[Beet]

Because the left wing parties are too hollowed out spiritually to oppose neo-liberalism, you get situations like this.

blue collar

1-Le Pen 37%
2-Hollande 17%
3-Sarkozy 17%
4-Mélanchon 12%

[Beet]

Besides his handsome good looks and charming demeanor, what bread-and-butter Socialist issues is Hollande (oops) hammering Sarkozy on?

[Beet]

The problem with Hollande is that he's just running to lick Angela Merkel's and Christine Lagarde's bush. How would he be different than Sarkozy? Merkel and Lagarde will tell him to cut spending, bust unions, and open markets to cheap foreign imports, all in a bid to restore "competitiveness". Which is code for reducing the French standard of living because in the German mind, the French are too well-off relative to their productivity.

How is that left-wing?

The problem is not that PS loses constantly so someone else needs to take up the left-wing banner. Even if Hollande narrowly won the election, it would be just like the recent election in Denmark. A rear-guard victory by a declining political force. The problem is, no one takes up the left-wing banner. I was reading this weekend of a survey taken in Belle Epoque Germany in which the surveyers expressed astonishment that only 88 percent of the proletariat in one town supported the SPD. Naturally, it was assumed that proleterian = SPD. Now, the 'Socialist' party manages less than a fifth of the blue collar vote, yet not an eyebrow is raised. The PS problem is that they have lost the workers' vote. Why should the worker support Hollande over Sarkozy? Heck, Marine Le Pen is more left wing than Hollande at this point. She is the only one standing up to Frankfurt. And Victor Orban is the most Keynesian, Kirchnerist leader in Europe.

[Beet]

What do (inaccurate as it happens, but that's not the issue) bourgeois assumptions about the solidity of working class support for the SPD a century ago have to do with the sociology of the PS vote of today? Support for the PS is not as closely linked to class (or to other socioeconomic factors) as most other (Western/Northern) European social democratic parties for historical reasons - not only do you have the old Catholic/Anti-Clerical divide (which worked against the formation of 'normal' class politics), but the socialist party that was embedded in working class communities was the Commies and not SFIO - and that has certainly been electorally unhelpful at times, sure. But that's not news and has nothing to do with the current crisis.

Perhaps the reason why people don't make a fuss out of it is that the FN has been the largest party with ouvriers in all presidential elections since 1995. Even 2007. So some historical perspective would help, fo 'sho.

Fascinating, gentlemen. I only mentioned the SPD a century ago because that was a time when, according to various sources I have read, the socialist parties were on the ascendancy everywhere in Europe, whereas today, it is the reverse with one or two exceptions, and so I detect some continental-wide trends in both instances. Are there any good books or online sources to recommend to learn more about the historical patterns by class and demographic among previous French Presidential elections?

[Beet]

Merkel has nothing to worry about. A couple hundred basis points rise in the FRAGER10YR and Hollande will be on bended knee.

[Beet]

What does GOTV look like in France? Do you guys get calls from party volunteers reminding you to vote? Is there absentee balloting?

[Beet]

Wow, Melenchon is surging. I've suspected for a while now that there's a lot of room for an anti-neoliberal alternative on the left. I wouldn't be surprised if he were taking votes from both Hollande and Le Pen.

[Beet]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/nicolas-sarkozy/9189231/Francois-Hollande-would-destroy-Frances-economy-within-two-days-Nicolas-Sarkozy-claims.html

Someone's been stealing from David Cameron's "a re-elected Labour government would turn us into Greece" playbook.

The European right brought us into this sh*t and now they claim they're the only ones who can save us. How lame.

European consensus brought the crisis. The left-wing goverments in Spain and Britain did no better when they were still in office.

Yup, that is why Le Pen and Melenchon are the only true alternatives, and Melenchon is the only left-wing alternative. Sarkozy and Hollande are separated only by cosmetic differences, for most intents and purposes. The primary benefit of a Hollande victory for the left-wing would be to show that they can actually win somewhere significant. There is no real benefit for the right-wing except to further demoralize the European left; they would probably be better off in the opposition anyhow.

[Beet]

Come on guys, Hollande can do this. He can do this!!