France 2012: the official thread

[Franzl]

So what's this "Porschegate"?

DSK photographed driving a Porsche (which wasn't even his, in the end). French people tend to think left-wingers don't have the right to be wealthy.

Class based populism bothers me... Only Greens shouldn't have the right to drive a Porsche

[Franzl]

People still think that sex scandals matter in France as much as they do in the US.

If he's in prison in New York, he can't campaign in France.

And if this turns out to be true.....calling it simply a "sex scandal" isn't really right.

[Franzl]

No one in New York knows who DSK is well enough to think that accusing him of rape would get them celebrity.

Haven't thought of that.....but, unfortunately, probably true

[Franzl]

Thank you Fab, I'm glad to see we are in agreement there.

You're welcome.
I respect men and women, whatever their opinions (though I have some exceptions, like Panzergirl and though I must acknowledge it's difficult for me to have great consideration for Besancenot, Bayrou, Hamon and Villepin ).

What I feel very badly is the media and Internet curée... It's just disgusting.
And even if it's true, why not wait for some sounder pieces of facts ?

I'm surprised that the first comments are only in 2 categories:
- DSK is sexually obsessed (Panzergirl, Bernard Debré, the Internet mob)
- it's a conspiracy (Boutin, Le Guen, some socialists rank-and-file).
Why not consider an attempt by one person to have some celebrity ?
This is what I think most likely (though not certain at all, don't make me say what I haven't said).

No one in New York knows who DSK is well enough to think that accusing him of rape would get them celebrity.

It seems that medias from all over the world, including the US, have big titles on this.

After it happened, though. I'm certain many if not most New Yorkers have only heard of his name since this news item came out.

Why should some random hotel maid get such an idea?

[Franzl]

What's different about NYPD's story now?

[Franzl]

What's different about NYPD's story now?

Apparently he didn't "left the hotel precipitously" as it has been said. He even went to a restaurant before embarking in the plane.

OK. Although why did he leave his personal belongings in the hotel room? Don't think this is a game changing detail, honestly.

Innocent until proven guilty....but we'll see.

[Franzl]

DSK is clearly not a victim of any sort, and he's getting quite fair treatment as an accused person of a very serious crime.

Frankly, trying to turn this into something else seems quite dishonest and desperate to me.

[Franzl]

Who is a person like me supposed to support, anyway? Sarkozy? I don't particularly like him, but I don't think his policies are terrible. Is there any credible right-wing alternative?

[Franzl]

It's not like maximum penalties are really given very often in cases like this, and certainly not for someone like DSK. His lawyers will get him a relatively good sentence even if he's guilty.

On another issue....I'm really having trouble figuring out what I personally believe. It would be nice if this were some big misunderstanding, but I dunno...

[Franzl]

These numbers are marvellous... Too bad they won't last.

What would your actual prediction be if the election were held today?

[Franzl]

As long as Antonio doesn't physically harm himself as a result....Sarkozy actually winning would be hillarious

[Franzl]

53-47 in CSA this morning: excruciating, Antonio, isn't it ?

I give up.

I can feel your pain

[Franzl]

Damn, I'm getting really nervous now. 

I refuse to believe that the PS, or the European Left in general, could be so inept to let this one slip from their fingers. I just refuse to believe it.

I'll be LMAO if France proves you wrong.

[Franzl]

I'd view it as a compliment, but I doubt the French would.

[Franzl]

Economist editorial. Can't say I disagree with them, quite the opposite.

http://www.economist.com/node/21551461

Quite a reasonable and realistic description, yes.

[Franzl]

So what are the odds of Sarkozy pulling this off?

[Franzl]

So what are the odds of Sarkozy pulling this off?

With my usual pessimism, I'd give him 10%. I'm pretty sure Nate would give him less than 5%.

Oh that sure of it? For some reason I was still thinking about 2:1 odds or so.

[Franzl]

Sorry Haven't been following the everyday events closely. Just had it in my head that Sarkozy was much stronger than anyone would have expected, look for a closer race, etc.

Thanks for the information.

[Franzl]

(...which comes as a confirmation of the fact the French are morons, but that's besides the point)

I'm sure Phil will have no trouble agreeing with that

[Franzl]

Aside from the trolling, Phil, I think what they're trying to get at is this: what makes you so certain? You've been adamant that Sarkozy will win for the whole campaign.

I imagine nothing. He's just half-trolling and will have bragging rights in the unlikely event that Sarkozy actually wins.