France 2012: the official thread

[Colbert]

Hollande   35,58
Sarkozy   23,84
Le Pen   17,03
Bayrou   7,03
Mélenchon   6,15
Joly   4,81
Villepin   1,84
Morin   1,30
Lepage   0,16
Dupont-Aignan   0,40
Boutin   0,36
Nihous   0,09
Arthaud   0,96
Poutou   0,46
Chevènement   0,00
   

so, for all lefts, i count : 47,96 %


but, since 1995, total left is (maximum) 40 %


so, my predict is : holland will lose a lot of %. He is overestimated.

[Colbert]

test : what if....proportionnal is introduced


I use results of cantonales 2011 for the test. Misc right goes to UMP, and presidential majority too, misc left goes to PS

[Colbert]

last IFOP poll


hollande 32.5  (-2.5)
sarkozy 26 (+1)
le pen 19 (+2)

[Colbert]

I know LH2 sucks

you know, IFOP is under control of Laurence Parisot, so... one or another...same sh*t

[Colbert]

I know that. I make a misunderstooding (hum...)

I mean...i don't talk about efficiency, but about ideological minds behind big poll institutes.



(in an idealist world, electoral polls would been forbidden...and we would have VERY exciting night-elections days^^)

[Colbert]

anyway, those 2e round results are fantaisist

even De Gaulle didn't break the wall of 56 points

and in 1980, for poll institutes, Giscard was given winner by 60-40 vs Mitterrand...

the 2012 2e round will be more too close-to-call (except if Marine goes in final)

[Colbert]

Hollande   32,70
Sarkozy   26,29
Le Pen   17,49
Bayrou   6,81
Mélenchon   6,34

Since your last edition :

Hollande -0.37 (-1.41%)
Sarkozy +0.92 (+2.81%)
Le Pen +0.08 (+0.46%)
Bayrou -0.03 (-0.44%)
Mélanchon -0.41 (-6.47%)
others -0.19 (-1.83%)

[Colbert]

Since 1 month :


Hollande :    -1,48   (-4,22%)
Sarkozy :    2,33   (+9,88%)
Le Pen :    1,19   (+7,26%)
Bayrou :    -0,68   (-9,12%)
Mélenchon :    -0,4   (-6,32%)
Others :    -0,96   (-8,62%)


Left* :    -1,73   (-3,67%)
Right* :    2,39   (+5,27%)

      
(*without bayrou)

[Colbert]

IFOP poll, 30 nov.


HOLLANDE 29.5 (-3)
SARKOZY 26 (=)
LE PEN 19.5 (+0.5)
BAYROU 8.5 (+2.5)
MELENCHON 7.5 (+0.5)
others 9 (-0.5)


http://www.atlantico.fr/decryptage/sondage-ifop-presidentielle-2012-hollande-sarkozy-ecart-resserre-marine-pen-jean-luc-melenchon-francois-bayrou-jerome

[Colbert]

IFOP LEFT & RIGHT (20 oct., 4 nov., 16 nov., 30 nov.)


LEFT* :

20 oct. : 46.5
4 nov. : 43.5
16 nov. : 44.5
30 nov. : 41.5



RIGHT* :

20 oct. : 47
4 nov. : 49.5
16 nov. : 49.5
30 nov. : 50



(yark yark, I had said that left always goes to 40 % in prez elections )





*without bayrou

[Colbert]

i speaked about the first round

[Colbert]

2 questions


1-what represent flags under your pseudos?

2-where is post in the Essays thread on homely's work on France since 1750 ?




this 2012 campain will be very exciting, with a 5-players game


will hollande crush between mélanchon and bayrou?
will sarko cruch between bayrou and marine ?
will mélanchon or marine qualified for the final ?


the only problem for bayrou is the first round, becaue in case of qualification for the final, he'll win in ever configuration (even if he'll have difficulties on the legislative election)

[Colbert]

profile of the voter-type on IFOP last poll


Mélanchonist is a man, 25-35 years old, worker, artisan or small shopkeeper, belong to public employment, living in Paris's conurbation

Hollandist is a woman, 18-24 years old, employee, belong to public employment, living in Paris or paris's conurbation

Bayrouist is a man, 25-34 years old, high-white collar, belong to private sector, living in rural area

Sarkozist is a woman, 65+ years old, pensioner, had worked in private sector, living in paris or paris's conurbation

Marinist is a woman, 35-49 years old, worker, belong to independant sector, living in rural area

[Colbert]

continuing in the same IFOP poll, voting intentions (minim. 10%) by categorie


men

1-Hollande 29%
2-Sarkozy 25%
3-Le Pen 18%
4-Mélanchon 10%

women

1-Hollande 30%
2-Sarkozy 27%
3-Le Pen 21%

18-24 yo

1-Hollande 48%
2-Sarkozy 25%
3-Le Pen 11%


25-34 yo

1-Hollande 25%
2-Le Pen 21%
3-Sarkozy 19%
4-Bayrou 11%
5-Mélanchon 10%


less 35yo

1-Hollande 34%
2-Sarkozy 21%
3-Le Pen 17%
4-Bayrou 10%

more 35 yo

1-Hollande 28%
2-Sarkozy 27%
3-Le Pen 20%


35-49 yo

1-Le Pen 32%
2-Hollande 24%
3-Sarkozy 18%


50-64 yo

1-Hollande 29%
2-Sarkozy 27%
3-Le Pen 19%


65+ yo

1-Sarkozy 37%
2-Hollande 30%

artisans/small shopkeeper

1-Hollande 25%
2-Le Pen 23%
3-Sarkozy 18%
4-Mélanchon 12%


white collar

1-Sarkozy 27%
2-Hollande 26%
3-Bayrou 15%
4-Le Pen 11%



intermediate job

1-Hollande 27%
2-Le Pen 26%
3-Sarkozy 21%
4-Bayrou 10%
5-Mélanchon 10%



employees

1-Hollande 42%
2-Le Pen 24%
3-Sarkozy 14%




blue collar

1-Le Pen 37%
2-Hollande 17%
3-Sarkozy 17%
4-Mélanchon 12%


pensioners

1-Sarkozy 38%
2-Hollande 29%
3-Bayrou 10%


unemployed/not active

1-Hollande 38%
2-Sarkozy 21%
3-Le Pen 19%


salaried on private sector

1-Hollande 27%
2-Le Pen 26%
3-Sarkozy 21%
4-Bayrou 10%


salaried on public sector

1-Hollande 33%
2-Le Pen 27%
3-Mélanchon 15%
4-Sarkozy 11%


employer/independant

1-Le Pen 29%
2-Sarkozy 21%
3-Hollande 20%




rural areas

1-Hollande 29%
2-Sarkozy 27%
3-Le Pen 25%



no-parisian urban areas

1-Hollande 29%
2-Sarkozy 25%
3-Le Pen 20%


parisian urban area

1-Hollande 34%
2-Sarkozy 28%
3-Mélanchon 13%
4-Le Pen 11%

[Colbert]

IMOO a good rating would be :


12 months ago : 5%
11 months ago : 10%
10 months ago : 15%
9 months ago : 20%
8 months ago : 25%
7 months ago : 30%
6 months ago : 40%
5 months ago : 50%
4 months ago : 60%
3 months ago : 70%
2 months ago : 80%
1 months ago : 90%
current month : 100%

[Colbert]

New IFOP poll out - Full numbers for every candidate in 1st round are not given in the article.

At any rate: 1st round - Hollande 28, Sarkozy 26
2nd round - Hollande 54, Sarkozy 46

http://www.ntn24.com/news/news/sarkozy-gains-ground-socialist-9250

1-HOLLANDE 28% (+0.5)
2-SARKOZY 26% (+2)
3-LE PEN 19% (-1)
4-BAYROU 12% (+1)
5-MELENCHON 6% (-0.5)
6-JOLY 3% (-2)
7-"sonstige" 5.5%

[Colbert]

The PS seems to be morphing ever so slowly into the second incarnation of the RadSocs: a bunch of experienced local notables who dominate local elections but which is not able to win anything of worth nationally.

great ! you point exactly right on the target

[Colbert]

what is a marinentum?

[Colbert]

BBF I really like much your blog, but everytime, it"s irritate me about your heavy remanence of MARION "Marine" Le pen.


As I know, if you come this way, you have no reason to call Martine Aubry "Aubry" or Ségolène Royal "Ségolène".

[Colbert]

last ifop

hollande 27
sarko 23
MARINE (^^) 21
bayrou 12

[Colbert]

more than the presidential, the legislative elections will be f... interesting. Vivement June 2012 !

[Colbert]

more than the presidential, the legislative elections will be f... interesting. Vivement June 2012 !

My constituency is pretty interesting:

Fredo vs. Balkany's brother or something vs. common PS-Green candidate

mine was not : XXe arrondissement is a strong place of parisian left.


In my opinions, if surprise there will have, it will be on west side of France. The last cantonal elections had reveled failures in the strong wall of anti-FNism on the line Brest-Limoges. (heart of chirac's vote and moderate votes)

[Colbert]

So it's starting to look highly possible that Sarkozy could be knocked out in the first round?  (When is that, by the way?)

April 22.

It was actually way more likely around the time of the DSKgate, where Marion was polling up to 24% and he was polling as low as Chirac-2002 levels. His support seems to have stabilized at a pretty low 23-25% but still pretty much above Marion's highs. That being said, nothing can be excluded, though I doubt Sarkozy will be knocked out. He's a formidable campaigner and once he starts campaigning seriously, my opinion is that he'll go back up.

frankly, I can't myself make bet on the finalists. Sarko is a very good candidate, but with few reserves.
Hollande is a weak candidate, but the other leftists candidates can't compete against him. If, as I think, left make 40 % of vote, Hollande will be finalist. (and, of course, if left is stronger than 40 %, finalist too)
Marine seems to be at her top. It would be difficult for her to pass from 20 to 25 %.
Bayrou is rising, but he start from very far.

[Colbert]

(yes he lose)


MLP battle, part II.

Some secret polls, as said the newspaper Marianne and some commentators, give MLP and Nicolas Ier equal at 22%

So, UMP is using is power to afraiding mayors wich could give their approve to MLP candidature.

But, le canard enchainé, the so-called "satiric" newspaper (and, for real, public office of intelligence service, FBI-like) said that Socialist Party is helping MLP to have the signatures (?) she need.

The only "chance" for MLP to don't be candidate is this : she present her 500/600 signs to the constitutionnal court, but, at the last moment, some of the mayors said "no".
So, she had no time to have others signatures, and can be candidate.


(sorry for my english)

[Colbert]

Can't wait to see Mélenchon entering in the actual campaign now, apparently Le Pen is less comfortable for it, she just refused a debate on France2 with him. Not good for her to flee...

I think tactically, she wants to debate with a PS or UMP leader. melanchon is not boxing in the same category (hum...i'm afraid this expression was not american, but word-to-word translation^^)