France 2012: the official thread

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

BREAKING SARKOZY IS CANDIDATE!! BREAKING

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Now it begins.

Now polls will begin to be relevant and worth watching.

Now the party will begin to be over for Hollande.

Now people who could hide the love fest of polls will have to show who they actually are too.

Actual campaign will begin.

Actual fights will begin.



I would maintain all what I said one year ago, if Sarkozy kept his campaigning skills and if there effectively is a big abstention, he can really do it.

If he doesn't succeed to be as good as he could be, and if anti-Sarkozism is so big that it would make more people voting against him than abstaining, then he can lose.

The only poll that I found worth watching was a few days ago, it was about the reasons why people would vote for Hollande, about 66% of them said the reason of their vote was against Sarkozy. Which shows what's remains pretty obvious since then, Hollande doesn't raise much adhesion, and all his campaigns have been like that, being the nice calm smiling guy doing witty jokes, waiting people to vote for him. With the actual campaign beginning, he will now have to face 2 big adversaries, Mélenchon on his left, Sarkozy on his right. I'd doubt he could continue to be the waiting guy during a long time.

I would also maintain what I said one year ago about Mélenchon and Le Pen. The latter was really a total journalistic excitation, no way she does the 2nd run, to be honnest she managed to pretty well last high, and she could even make a better campaign than what I expected, but still, she's too empty to manage something enormous.

Mélenchon on the other hand is totally fit for such an election, which is a big fight of personalities overall. He has a very constructed and solid discourse. He is, by far, or along with Sarkozy, the most charismatic man, he benefits of the fact that the 2 classical figureheads of the French far-left, Laguillier and Besancenot, are no more here, and their substitutes are almost invisible. Unlike Marine Le Pen, he didn't have all journalists arround him saying 'that could be the huge surprise!!' for months and months, then he could benefited of a freshness effect, to become an actual surprise, and also, in the campaign, he could very well slap Marine Le Pen. This plus the fact that the current context gives more credibility to what he says, with a Hollande that can easily appear as a smiling do nothing mild guy, maybe he wouldn't do the 2nd run, but he could really make a coup, and then breaking this over annoying PS for the future.

Bayrou? GO IN BEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAARN. May he opens a choir with Jean de Lassalle, and eventually Douste, they could also open an orange beret factory, so that he could rpoudly do some 'Made in France'. May he does anything but stops politics, he would be more useful writing books, actually. That being said, he does what he always did, anti-Sarkozism, then maybe he could contribute to make Sarkozy lose if it works.

So far anti-Sarkozim is the main thing all the contenders but Mélenchon mainly did. It's a bit short to win...

Also, the 'permanent referendum' that Sarkozy proposes can be a winning strategy, French like referendum, it's always appealing.

He wasn't bad on TV tonight actually. Can't wait to see how he could handle the campaign.

If he wins, it would confirm what I tend to think for a while, all the European periphery may very well change, but the core, the axis, France-Germany, may as well stay stable. I also tend to think that from Greece to France, in all countries in which people have to swallow 'rigor', people would still be ready to accept it nowadays, the big time for our societies would be 2016-2017, when after that people did a lot of sacrifices to please markets, they don't see results.

In short, Mélenchon 2012? No. Mélenchon-Montebourg 2017? Beware!

And in case Hollande wins, that would work too, they would show they are as pointless and inefficient at taking the major challenges we are facing.

Well, yeah, no matter who wins, all those stuffs mainly remain a show, a show that would show that demos will have to find new ways to have kratos on their lives...

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Sarkozy hold his 1st meeting.

The slap machine began, and on the tough force since the very 1st round.

When one says to the English press that one is liberal and when one says to the French that the enemy is Finance, one LIES, one lies morning and evening.

Good one, and the PS is back to his old schizophrenia with that. The words 'English' and 'liberal' are quite crippling. He also amongst other things well pointed out the messy and petty electoral agreements between PS and Greens.

Everything is back, tough clear slaps, national lyrism, easy to get concepts. And he pushes a maximum on the referendum strategy. 'If social corpses block politics then I'll give all power to the PEOPLE to decide for himself, because the PEOPLE knows very well what is good for them or not, there shouldn't be any barriers between the power and THE PEOPLE.'

The meeting was sober in its design, the 1st big stuff would be in Marseille on Sunday, but still, at the end of that one you had the exciting crowds chanting 'NICOLAS! NICOLAS! NICOLAS!'...'SARKO! SARKO! SARKO!'. Hollande never had such stuffs so far. Sarkozy will have to confirm if his skills are back or not during this meeting. So far so good.

Hollande was then speaking on TF1 at 20h, like Sarkozy did yesterday, one hour after this meeting. So far he doesn't answer so bad, but he remains very on the defensive, and not clear and messy to expose his ideas, while Sarkozy knows how to find clear lines.

Can't wait to see Mélenchon entering in the actual campaign now, apparently Le Pen is less comfortable for it, she just refused a debate on France2 with him. Not good for her to flee... I think she'll get her sigs, no matter it would be with some help or not, she would be more dangerous outside of the game than inside I'd think, or at least the hypothesis of this would be considered more hazardous by the Right, and the Left would prefer having her to harm Sarkozy.

I hope Dupont-Aignan and Nihous will have their sigs too, that would be less % for Marine Le Pen.

Sarkozy 10,5 millions people audience yesterday on TV, quite big, but lol, DSK had done 14 millions at the same place to explain himself on his 'New-York adventure'. Would be interesting to know Hollande's audience.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Just a comment on productivity causd by big businesses.

It's wrong. In Canada, I remember reading than 70% of the GNP is created by small businesses.

Small businesses are way more productive than the big ones.

That's one of the big argument of this campaign, France is a model of economy which enjoys very big companies, and thus has several very big worldwide ones, but their international dimensions precisely make a lot of jobs internationally and not necessarily in France, then both PS and UMP are fighting to say 'I'll be the one who will develop PME more!' (PME being the French acronym for small business, small and middle business to be precise). And both of them basing themselves on German economical results to say 'thats' the way Germany succeeded to be economical champion', and then the fight becomes, amongst other things, who will be the best at copying the German economical model. It was at least the case so far, I'd be surprised Sarkozy pushes too much in this direction, a bit of Germany can fine to be elected (recent polls said that 82% of French had a good opinion of Germans, well, it was ordered by the German embassy in Paris though), but too much Germany wouldn't be much sexy, he planed to invite Merkel during his campaign though.

That being said, 10 years ago, the 1st European economical power was France, and it had the same economical model than now, Germany became the 1st European economical power after Schroeder screwed social rights in his country, and well, the rise of China which would have bought a lot of big cars and of industrial machines would have helped too.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Awwwwww

People get crazy about that, Libération, Le Nouvel Obs, Le Télégramme de Brest, for those I heard of, everybody analyzing the stuff, 'is it tactic?? is it not?? is the fact it's been posted on a Russian site first a strategy?? blahblahblah'.

Ah and, on the very night of the publication of Sarkozy campaign poster you might have seen all the parodies of it. But who cares about Hollande poster?? I've only quickly seen it once on itélé.

Anything Sarkozy does makes people crazy...

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

To be fair:



I wonder which one is worse. Very Hollande, nothing great, nothing awful, middle. That being said, I don't know if that will be the definite poster.

Ah, and, a guy on Internet pointed out that the sea behind Sarkozy on his poster, comes from a pic from a pics bank, and it's a pic of...Aegean Sea. ^^

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

I just heard Le Pen bitched the fact it was a Greek sea on Sarkozy's poster the 20h of TF1 tonight.

She should pay attention, a pic of some of her posters that showed a tramp sleeping on the floor, and accusing Sarkozy of being responsible of this, also comes from a pics bank, and is in fact some American actor doing it ^^.

Mayas is fancy.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Portray of the future of Guyanne's seaside?

Thankfully all this very bad clownerie about xenophobia and inefficient securitarism will stop or go lower after this election, either he loses and it stops, either he gets elected and he won't have to run through this as much as now since he won't have to run for reelection. F***, we could still have Coppé maintaining the flame though...

I can only hope there won't be any major riots in some rough districts before the elections, because then, it could go quite tough...

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Sarkozy 10,5 millions people audience yesterday on TV, quite big, but lol, DSK had done 14 millions at the same place to explain himself on his 'New-York adventure'. Would be interesting to know Hollande's audience.

According to Le Figaro, Hollande's interview the following day got 6.4 million viewers.
Meanwhile TF1's new political show got their worst prime time market share since 1991: just 2.2m people (8.9% market share) watched Bayrou and Joly last night.

Thank you, I was thinking about checking but hadn't done. As for the other audience, normal, look at the candidates.

Ah, and, about Sarkozy's meeting in Marseille:

Sarkozy is in dah place.

Goes tougher and tougher against Hollande. As one of the political analyst says, I can't remind the words have already been that violent under the Vth. I wonder if it could last this way 2 months, Hollande will have to find a new behavior anyhow, being the cute avoiding guy might not be enough. Especially if the main tactic remains 'this is a referendum against Sarkozy', what a high esteem of his project, and 'you have a bad assessment!' that will be easily wiped out by Sarkozy with 'seen there has been the biggest crisis since WW2? are you being serious?'. But apparently Socialistes can't help acting dumb, same for Borloo affair, they spent the whole day fighting harsh against...rumors, congrats.

They definitely renounced about thinking before opening their mouthes?

So far they are stuck in anti-Sarkozism and reciting boring technical measures, yay.

Good one of Sarkozy's meeting:

Where's the truth when you act like Thatcher in London, and like Mitterand in Paris?

Oh also Sarkozy continues more than ever to push toward a totally plebicitary regime with his referendums stuff (and the only one to underline it is Mélenchon), he is going to push the logic of the Vth Republic to the overdose, which would thankfully in the end help to get rid of it later.

Marine Le Pen is really turning more and more radical, if only in her attitude, and her 'IdF meat is all halal!!' blatant attempt at twisting reality won't help her I think. Having a more and more over nervous and scary face in interviews and meetings is really unappealing. That's actually the most scary looking politician I can remind of since that guy that excited Germany several decades ago, even those of Lega Norde don't look that aggressive but merely dumb when they make their excited downright racist speeches.

Meanwhile, today, Sarkozy looks cool and even bashed Hollande on 'what? you don't accept criticism? you shouldn't run then...'.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

LOL, Le Pen was even more despicable than I expected. And Mélenchon was k**king brilliant, if only I agreed with him on policies I'd be enthused to vote for him.

Anybody truly on the Left would agree with him. I clearly don't give a penny about the Left-Right divide, or for most of it, and overall for it's future, but in the end I very well might finish with a Front de Gauche ballot in my hands.

And yeah, he showed all his potential tonight, while Le Pen made a big time of contempt, and show all her arrogance almost stating that 40% of workers belonged to her, and using polls (bloody non sensical polls) to present herself as the 3rd big political force of the country which only deserved to speak with the 2 biggest ones.

In the end she appears at best as an arrogant, and anyhow as a little spoiled girl making her tantrums, was rather enjoyable how Mélenchon succeeded to ridiculize her while remaining quite classy, if he keeps controlling his nerves (the opposite would be his major flaw) then he has a lot of chances to realize what I think about him.

Marine Le Pen is already becoming less and less stable, and it's only the beginning of the campaign.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

...Montebourg for PM though ofc

If you're being serious I must say it's always very enjoyable to see how comments from abroad can be exotic.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

If you're being serious I must say it's always very enjoyable to see how comments from abroad can be exotic.

I was joking

How about for finance minister? And no, that's not a joke.

I must say it's always very enjoyable to see how comments from abroad can be exotic.

Seriously, Montebourg on Economy? What about Jospin in Sports (hey he played basket-ball)?

You want a Ministry for Montebourg? Hmm, let me know...

PM: Moscovici, Sapin, Aubry, other, no way for Montebourg
Interior: Valls, other, no way for Montebourg
Foreign Office: Védrine, Fabius, Lang, other, no way for Montebourg
Economy: Cahuzac, Moscovici, Aubry??, other, no way for Montebourg

Was going to try to write a full shadow govt for an eventual PS victory, but heck, it's 03.03 am and seems my mind is resisting to this idea, then I won't go further by now, should have been in my mind while I was still thinking Hollande could have significant chances, that is well, circa his victory in primaries.

Since Montebourg seems to raise some attention, the biggest he could hope would be Justice, very eventually Labour/Social affairs, very eventually external trade, and my mind is resisting again to try to find some other eventualities.

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Lol at thinking anybody in the 'big boys' (sorry Martine, but well, she was far more feminine when she was young, and even rather cute) of PS is looking at doing this. And about Montebourg, he and his ideas would certainly be part of the future of the Left, at least on the short term, but seeing as a man full of conviction is a bit too much, that's merely a fanfaron, of which the energy might be useful in the future, when (thankfully!!) this bloody PS will be destroyed, or will deeply mutate, but well...

And well, Hollande and FN, he has nothing to do to put the hand on the eventual FN voters that can still move, that is at most anything that would go beyond 10%, since a majority of those would vote for the most anti-system possible thing, then eventually Le Pen, in 1st round, and in a Hollande-Sarkozy run off, they would automatically vote against the incumbent. Thinking Hollande can, and would, put the hand on some FN people by playing on some far-rightist speeches is rather, lol.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Abroad I don't know, but in France it's clear for everybody now that 2002 was the widespread of the Left. Which is one way to assume its weakness too.