France 2012: the official thread

[MaxQue]

Hervé Maurey (NC-Eure), close to Morin and supported by Arthuis, should easily win given that the NC and AC dominate the group.

But, NO!

Zocchetto won, since the two other candidates retired minutes before the vote, to show unity.
Apparently, according to some medias, AC senators refused to let NC control the group, since they already the Assembly group. They didn't wanted than the NC had more control on the center.

As usual, they are fighting each other while they aren't very relevent (well, except in Senate, since the right hasn't a majority).

[MaxQue]

Sorry if I don't apreciate people who deem an entire people sexist because of a few things he heard. You have no clue what the heck you are talking about, but you say it as if it were an evidence. This is called bigotry, and I find it interesting it comes from someone who usually points out bigotry in everybody.

I must have missed the part where I called an entire people sexist. A country having a sexist culture isn't the same as everyone in it being sexist. I would have thought that rather obvious.

And while I realize you may be blind to it, being French and all, France is known to be a pretty sexist nation. Not as bad as most non-industrialized nations of course, but still.

Wow. Must I remember you a thread about Israel where I was in the same situation than you? You can't condemn me and trying to defend you from the same thing at the same time.

Well, DSK is probably out of the race, which is good, since IMF ran neo-liberal politics. French left doesn't need to be a soft copy of the right.

[MaxQue]

Imagining that he could flee is just ridiculous.

Sure...

He has money, he can flee if he wants.
Some people just don't want to go in jail.

[MaxQue]

Imagining that he could flee is just ridiculous.

Sure...

He has money, he can flee if he wants.
Some people just don't want to go in jail.

It would make him definitely guilty and as popular as Hitler - yes, in France too. If he wants a future, he has no choice but staying.

Well, people are often not rationnal in situations like that.
They panick and do something stupid.

[MaxQue]

Gustaf, I'm not arguing with you as long as you keep missing my points and putting words in my mouth (because 90% of your post is based only on that). I might be wrong in my argument, but at least I genuinely try to adress the points you make.

Well, I'm thinking he may has a point on French people.

Not a socialist leader expressed any compassion to the alleged victim.
Comments on French news sites are insulting the victim, too.

There seems to have a generalised banalisation of rape in French news, and, that, that is worriying.
Much more than the actual trial.

[MaxQue]

I know you guys don't really want this in here, but can I say in relation to the DSK case, that the US practice of very heavy punishments for people who plea 'not guily' strikes me as a bit retarded and more or less likely to result in miscarriages of justice?

Well, no.

Not guilty leads to normal punishment.
If you plea "guilty", you usually have a deal with the Attorney, in which you plea guilty and the attorney is asking a more lenient sentence, because you cooperated.

In the attorney view, it is better to have no trial with a reduced punishment than than a lenghly and costly trial, which can be very difficult to witnesses, victims and their families and which can fail to convince the jury.

[MaxQue]

(the biggest difference between Hollande and Aubry is about sex and age)

I would have said than the biggest difference was personality.
Which is very important in a personalist primary like that.

[MaxQue]

Well, a gradual trend is usually more solid than a strange unexpected big drift.

[MaxQue]

I'm surprised you aren't predicting than your beloved Marine will win.

[MaxQue]

Well, what to expect from a FN lover?

[MaxQue]

Has anyone said that Aubry and socialists should be killed? Is it permitted to be, let's say, "radical" complaining of a multicultural society or muslim influence and presence without thinking of slaughters and without being blamed of sympathy with Breivik? I hope, because freddom of speech is important, and at the same time I wouldn't like to see anti-americanists, anti-israeli movements to be accused to be Al Qaeda supporters, for instance.

I invite you to read the rules of the "International Elections" board. They are slighly different of the general rules. Time showed than those rules needed, to keep an agreeable atmosphere on this board.

[MaxQue]

BVA poll for Orange and regional press, 16-18 September 2011, sample 2624

(format stoled to fab, sorry)

Out of this whole sample, you have 473 persons "certain" to vote and 723 persons who may vote.
Globally, out of the whole sample, you've got 1301 leftists.

Among the 473 sample:
Hollande 43
Aubry 28
Royal 12
Montebourg 9
Valls 7
Baylet 1

Among the 723 sample
Hollande 45
Aubry 26
Royal 11
Montebourg 10
Valls 7
Baylet 1

Among the 1301 leftists:
Hollande 44
Aubry 28
Montebourg 11 (!!)
Royal 9
Valls 7
Baylet 1


And, on a 914 persons sample of people which listened a part of the debate, was the candidate convincing?
Among the sample/ among people sure of voting / Among people which watched the whole debate
Hollande 64 / 77 / 71
Valls 58 / 64 / 58
Aubry 55 / 76 / 63
Montebourg 52 / 70 / 62
Royal 29 / 46 / 36
Baylet 17 / 25 / 21


So, very good for Valls and Montebourg, bad for Royal, but it seems it is not a surprise. Baylet is still irrelevent.

[MaxQue]

DSK basically ruined all her credibility by admitting they had an agreement (what an asshole).

Well, truth is good, no?

[MaxQue]

Baylet wins!








in Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon

Not surprising, PRG is one of three parties on the island (with PS and UMP).

[MaxQue]

Baylet endorsed Hollande, from what I saw on a computer screen in the living room.

[MaxQue]

I see than Aubry launched the "machine à perdre".

Which helps the right and is a very bad idea from her.
Does she want Hollande to lose, so she can run against Sarkozy in 2017?

[MaxQue]

What time will the polls close today (CET)? What's the best link for results?

If it's a really close race, we won't know for a 3 days because the Socialists tend to be incompetent in counting the votes within a few hours (see first round) ...

They are not incompetent. The informatic system clogged up because too much officers were putting their results.

Some didn't liked that and left to sleep, updating their results on another day.
Apparently, some were old people which refused to stay to count at night, too.

[MaxQue]

What time will the polls close today (CET)? What's the best link for results?

If it's a really close race, we won't know for a 3 days because the Socialists tend to be incompetent in counting the votes within a few hours (see first round) ...

They are not incompetent. The informatic system clogged up because too much officers were putting their results.

Some didn't liked that and left to sleep, updating their results on another day.
Apparently, some were old people which refused to stay to count at night, too.

Ah, ok, that explains it.

We just have to hope than they improved the capacity of their system.
And than they gave clear orders to the officers.

[MaxQue]

What time will the polls close today (CET)? What's the best link for results?

If it's a really close race, we won't know for a 3 days because the Socialists tend to be incompetent in counting the votes within a few hours (see first round) ...

They are not incompetent. The informatic system clogged up because too much officers were putting their results.

Some didn't liked that and left to sleep, updating their results on another day.
Apparently, some were old people which refused to stay to count at night, too.

Ah, ok, that explains it.

We just have to hope than they improved the capacity of their system.
And than they gave clear orders to the officers.

Yeah. Hopefully.

So, when are the polls closing as Phil wanted to know ? 9pm (3pm Eastern) ?

7pm (1pm eastern)

[MaxQue]

Departement-by-departement 1st round results have now disappeared... Too bad I wanted to do one last map.

It is probably not on purpose, since national and local 1st round results are still avaliable.

[MaxQue]

Does the new prostitution scandal which is perhaps related to DSK will hurt PS?

[MaxQue]

Does the new prostitution scandal which is perhaps related to DSK will hurt PS?

Oh Lord, what now? Details?

A complicated thing about the Carlton Hotel in Lille.
A prostitution ring. They suspect Lille police chief to be one of ring leaders and DSK to be a customer.

They were offering soirees for free to DSK, paid by the police leader and businessmen. Some of those businessmen often went in Washington to meet with him.

A mix of prostitution, corrupt policemen and influence trafic.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5jsLYX_4YnJ1qVXpL7MyGz4FsXGVg?docId=CNG.de80727976bb112284b8f6a2d4707c0c.281

[MaxQue]

Does the new prostitution scandal which is perhaps related to DSK will hurt PS?

Nah. If the DSK affair made Hollande gain 5 points, I don't see how this little stuff could hurt him. I've the impression people don't even associate him with the PS anymore (except when he talks about his "sercret" deals with Aubry ).

True. That is a good thing than he was stopped in May, then. All that coming out after he would have won the primary would have been dreadful...

[MaxQue]

Lipietz?
Wasn't Mamère were their candidate in 2002?

[MaxQue]

There is a big mistake in your translation.

a besoin de repères= needs some landmarks.