France 2012: the official thread

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Is this "DSK - Will he? Won't he?" boring anyone else?

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The form of fascism represented by Le Pen has always been stronger in Europe than in the US. There's a reason, after all, for why Hitler was European.

This is especially striking, imo, once you consider that the racism of the US was a product of having a huge black slave population for a long time. Give us in Europe the tiniest number of Jews or Muslims and the torches come out.

Exactly. Europeans, from East to West, are more racist than Americans, it's just that Americans (more generally Southerners) are stereotypically racist. Racial profiling and all that since 9/11 hasn't helped the American image either.

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Eugh.

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Again, eugh.

http://www.leparisien.fr/election-presidentielle-2012/sondage-marine-le-pen-en-tete-au-premier-tour-de-la-presidentielle-05-03-2011-1344656.php

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Will this hurt the government?

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Will this hurt the government?

Absolutely not. People know since decades that Chirac is a corrupt trash, yet they still love him. And in no way people connect Chirac to the current government, to the contrary you will notice Chirac's approval ratings are basically the negative of Sarkozy's.

If any, the government's defeat could hurt Chirac. But even this is doubtful.

Ohhh, I see.

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Le Pen 24, DSK 23, Sarkozy 21

Merde.

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Yeah, really. Julio, if you like Royal you have to learn more about her.

Yeah. Although I like her as a person, she's a total psycho who should never be allowed near office.

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But the UMP is headed to radicalization, and the ones who will try to oppose this move will be marginalized.

They're to UMP, not the GOP.

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Nicolas Hulot is running, for some reason. I like how Duflot calls him la chouette.

Any good Monsieur Hulot (Jacques Tati) references in French media, or are silly puns like that a British tabloid thing?

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You'll meet so many people who think themselves as not influenced by medias... but who think only based on what they've heard in talkshows

You'll meet so many people who say they don't believe any longer in politicians. Ever. Never... but who jump in the first bandwagon that runs near them (Royal, Sarkozy, Bayrou, Le Pen, Bové, Hulot, Mélenchon, Besancenot, Joly, Borloo...)

Definately. In the UK, we had those who weren't influence by the media, but hated everyone because they read the Daily Mail. They hated politicians because they were expenses-fiddling, country-hating idiots... but Nick Clegg was okay to them for like a month in 2010.

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"I'm the odds-on favourite to become the president of the 5th most economically powerful country on the planet. So, i'm just going to rape this maid, because no one's going to find out about it." Come on, it's tabloid fluff. (I hope.)

If Le Parti Socialiste lose this one... the European centre-left is just beyond help! Ou est... Hollande?

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Soooooo... François then (ou Segolene , lol)?

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1. The essentially deferential (certainly from a British point of view) that the French media takes towards the private lives of powerful men in France means this sort of thing should not, perhaps, come as a total shock. Why? Because if you know that you can do (almost) anything that you want and get away with it, then there's a good chance that you will. Of course some powerful men will act terribly in their private lives regardless of the threat level, but the line is in a different place.

2. I think I read somewhere that this was a $3,000-a-night suite. First off, that's insane. Secondly... well... there is a certain sort of man who would probably consider that a right to mess with female staff members comes with the a price tag that absurd.

3. It's actually quite unusual for women to make up stories like this about powerful men. Now that goes against what we assume, but it's where the evidence is. For what that's worth.

4. Although DSK seems like a big loss politically speaking, he probably isn't. Why? Because if he is capable of errors in judgment on this titanic scale in his private life (and no matter whether the charges are true - though they probably are - he has certainly made huge errors of judgment along the way) then he would probably have found a way of cocking up the election anyway. He was probably never the candidate that everyone assumed that he was. Maybe the PS - and those of us who hope to see Sarkozy defeated - have been spared.

5. I don't think all attention should be in this thread; DSK was the head of the IMF as well. At the very least there ought to be something on the economics board (perhaps there is - I've not checked).

Those are valid points, if the "affair" had regarded cheating, meeting call-girls or other things like that. Of course a person of his situation can consider he "has the right" to do that (and, to some extent, he indeed has).
However, we are talking about rape here. And we're talking about of a internationally known politician. And we're talking about someone who was preparing a presidential big. And here I have difficulties to immagine such a person couldn't realize what rape could have meant for him. Or that he was ready to take the risk. That doesn't exactly strike me as very credible.

Of course, if this turns out to be true, you're 100% right saying a person like him would be totally unfit as a candidate. But I've still difficulties to believe it.

Literally, just said more or less this to someone about half an hour ago. It just makes no sense! You don't go and rape someone when you're less than a month away from announcing you're running to be president of the 5th biggest economy on the planet. That's just not how it works. That, coupled with the fact that he could be out of the country during the primaries even if he was found not guilty, just make it all too... convenient.

The reports of his casual departure from his hotel and even calling from the airport to ask about his forgotten mobile phone support his innocence.

I'm sure a part-time Spanish Maid in a hotel would take a few thousand dollars from an agent of the the French right to cry rape...

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The thing is, even if he's found completely not guilty, he's damaged good now. No coming back from this... no doubt the next round of polls will show Hollande ahead.

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Update:  No bail - DSK remanded to custody.  Prosecutors said he was flight risk, and they won.  Goes before grand jury on May 20.
As to the actual charges - believe what you want folks, but the cops have a lot of physical evidence.  That seems apparent.

Al is right on the fact that this type of incident rarely occurs with a powerful man.

Also, my friends in the DA's department have long told me that those who are guilty try to act normally after committing the crime - so I would not necessarily read the "call on the plane" or "lunch with the daughter" positively.

That being said - innocent until proven guilty.

Ahh, but the lunch thing was supposed to have been at the time the incident was supposed to have happened.

And anyway, you'd think these hotels would have security cameras. Or is all that too nanny-state Britain?

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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yfy6s-_eVOI&feature=player_embedded - There are NO words! hahahaha!

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http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/may/16/dominique-strauss-khan-arrest-france

Come oooooon! This is staring us in the face...

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CSA poll for 20 Minutes:

Hollande 23
Sarkozy 22
Le Pen 20

Aubry 23
Sarkozy 23
Le Pen 19

Royal 18
Sarkozy 23
Le Pen 20

No big change here.
In the first round, Borloo gains 4 points (from 4 to , Bayrou between 2 and 4 points.

I'll re-publish it when we have complete results.

(Guys, I'm desperately trying to put the discussion back to the main subject of this thread... )

...FRANCOIS 2012! Francois pour les Francais!

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Who is a person like me supposed to support, anyway? Sarkozy? I don't particularly like him, but I don't think his policies are terrible. Is there any credible right-wing alternative?

The first round is basically a free-for-all (unless you're trying to tactically stop Marine Le Fasciste), so probably...

Dominique de Villepin? Jean-Louis Borloo?

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OK... let me be a hack (only this time):

SEGOLENE 2012!!

If you're not being sarcastic, I agree that she's underrated.

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Let's be serious, as if he'd run now...

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It is le PS, after all.

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Could anyone who's following this more closely tell me a bit about Montebourg? Seems like a decent enough candidate, but i'm failing to find much in the British media. I'd look in the French media, but my French isn't exactly amazing.

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Could anyone who's following this more closely tell me a bit about Montebourg? Seems like a decent enough candidate, but i'm failing to find much in the British media. I'd look in the French media, but my French isn't exactly amazing.

Montebourg is one of the most arrogant, egotistical guys out there. He lives for and by media cameras and loves to put on little shows to posture himself. Even by French standards he's a massive egomaniac. That guy is in love with himself and attempts to turn himself into some American-like Obama-icon to the point where it's downright pathetic (stuff like ending his 'campaign ad' with "Je suis Arnaud Montebourg et j'approuve ce message"). He also pathetically puts on that "down-to-earth rural guy" figure and talks like a 70-year old farmer when he's in his constituency. He's also quite a liar: he was for a long time a populist crusader against the cumul, but in 2008 he didn't find it morally reprehensible for him to become president of his department's general council. I've hated his guts since 2007 or so, so I'm biased, but, look at how he acts. It's so fake it's pathetic and he's so arrogant it's crazy.

I'd sort've picked up on some of that. The whole Ideas and Dreams thing is a bit... eugh. And is the 6th Republic thing serious, or just a cheesy campaign hook like 'Big Society'?

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You can say whatever you want about Royal... BUT I STILL LIKE HER!!!

She's funny crazy, not crazy crazy. Still vote for her over Sarko and obviously Marine.