France 2012: the official thread

[Antonio the Sixth]

Congratulations, this thread was a long overdue seeing how this topic seems to interest a lot of people now. Thanks for your approfondite overview of the candidates.

[Antonio the Sixth]

French politics seem more complicated than anything I've heard of before.

Nah, there are just a lot of egomaniacs, hacks, useless feuds, etc... Ideologically, French politics are usually epically boring.

Runoffs:
with DSK: 64-36 for DSK
with Aubry: 56-44 for Aubry
with Royal: 50-50
with Hollande: 55-45 for Hollande

Huh, yeah, those results are nowhere near plausibility.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Wait, a BVA poll gives Aubry... 57% ? For real ?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Is BVA a reliable pollster or is it like CSA ? I have difficulties to believe Aubry would do better than Mitterrand when he crushed Chirac in 1988.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Is BVA a reliable pollster or is it like CSA ? I have difficulties to believe Aubry would do better than Mitterrand when he crushed Chirac in 1988.

It's decent, but polls more than a year out are useless junk. Remember the triumphal reelection of Giscard in 1981? Balladur's crushing of Chirac in 1995? Chevenement's 12% in 2002 with Jospin's close runoff victory? Exactly.

Until Ipsos starts polling, then polls are best taken as things to make us salivate.

You're 100% right. However, I can't hide my joy right now...

[Antonio the Sixth]

New candidate yay!

Maxime Gremetz, a hardcore Stalinist hothead, is probably running for the PCF nomination... despite not being a member of the PCF. He has served as deputy for the Somme on-and-off since 1978 and was also an MEP for a while. Originally one of the party's stooges in the late 70s, he has become a thorn in the side of the Politburo of the PCF to the point that they threw him out in 2006 and ran an official PCF candidate against him in 2007 (he also ran as a communist dissident in the 2010 regionals, coming narrowly ahead of the FG list). He's a mad and slightly insane populist, and has been suspected of a deal with the FN to win some public office in some public agency. He is known for being insane, notably by almost running over a police officer in 1998, shoving a PS regional councillor, and then by attacking and apparently looting the office of fellow PCF deputy Daniel Paul. The candidacy of Joseph Stalin's French grandson makes this election fun automatically.

Wow, that's quite impressive. I confusedly heard about the latter, but I couldn't imagine he was such a psychopath.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So, Aubry called Royal impatient and Royal threw a small hissy fit. It seems as if the Traditional Civil War of the PS will start soon.

Please, just don't let Royal win again. We are about to break the recond of "unlosable elections" lost.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I can't believe polls have now FN at 20%. Either they're gaming the numbers or the next election could be another bloodbath for democracy.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I think the winner of the election will mostly depend on how the PS primaries go, because in a so favorable situation the only thing able to kill the PS is the PS. So of course it's a shame we have to wait for almost another year instead of just having them now, even though this will allow me to vote.

[Antonio the Sixth]

All this seems too beautiful to be true...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Delanoë seems gone now, he would have a hard time looking credible now. And please God spare us of the infernal (former) couple.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Is this "DSK - Will he? Won't he?" boring anyone else?

65 million people.

[Antonio the Sixth]

It's not like I care whether or not he runs. Socialists can win without him, and I'd be fully satisfied with either Aubry or him. But with the election aproaching, not even knowing who is our candidate is rather annoying.

[Antonio the Sixth]

While you're certainly right, that's still pretty damn scary.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Will this hurt the government?

Absolutely not. People know since decades that Chirac is a corrupt trash, yet they still love him. And in no way people connect Chirac to the current government, to the contrary you will notice Chirac's approval ratings are basically the negative of Sarkozy's.

If any, the government's defeat could hurt Chirac. But even this is doubtful.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I would enjoy seeing a second round vote between DSK and LePen with Sarko knocked out after the first round. I guess the only question in that scenario is whether DSK gets 75% or 80%.

My fear is that a lot of right-wingers would be more encline to vote for a far-rightist than for a moderate social-democrat like Strauss Khan. I don't know how much of them would, but my guts say DSK could very well fall below 70% in your scenario.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, that seems accurate. Though I wouldn't be as categorical as you are. As I said, that's mostly a guts issue.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Well, if we follow your numbers about the margins of error and the correction, we still get Le Pen at 18-19% at the very least. Which is, IMO, pretty damn scary.

[Antonio the Sixth]

But it wouldn't put her in the second round.

Until she picks up a few more points, and/or "official" candidates lose a few more points.

[Antonio the Sixth]

This poll actually scares me more than the previous one. So she really is 2 points short of getting in.

One positive side in this: the sooner Panzergirl peaks, the sooner and the more she will go down...
Or not ?

You can't say it's a peak until the numbrers start decreasing...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Here's a question for the end-is-nigh mass panickers: who led in polls in 1980, 1987, 1994, 2001 and 2006?

Not the FN.

[Antonio the Sixth]

All right. Now it's time to start praying for Strauss-Khan.

[Antonio the Sixth]

SO, there's a real opportunity for a 2nd round with two homophobic candidates =(

Sarkozy has many defects, but I fail to see what could make you think he is homophobe.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Besancenot at 8% ? I fail to see how this is possible.

[Antonio the Sixth]

DSK 33 / Aubry 23 / Hollande 23 / Royal 17
Le Pen 19 / 21 / 21 / 21
Sarkozy 18 / 21 / 21 / 21
Bayrou 5 / 8 / 8 / 10
Joly 5 / 5 / 5 / 7
Besancenot 6 / 6 / 7 / 7
Mélenchon 5 / 5 / 5 / 6
Arthaud 2 / 2 / 2 / 2
Villepin 5 / 7 / 6 / 7
Morin 1 / 1 / 1 / 1
Dupont-Aignan 1 / 1 / 1 / 1

Wow, the PS candidates (except the Mad One) lead the 1st round.

I of course don't wish it happens, but I couldn't restrain some satisfaction if we see a reversal of 2002 with Sarkozy out. An eye for an eye.