France 2012: the official thread

[Umengus]

oh my god, Brice teinturier, the (ex) sofres guy, is now at.. ipsos !

[Umengus]

IFOP poll for France-Soir, 31 March-1 April
sample 577 left voters and 247 socialist voters, among a total sample of 1016

(with results from previous polls of 10-11 February and 24-25 February)

among left voters:
DSK 43 / 40 / 37
Hollande 11 / 15 / 22
Aubry 24 / 17 / 18
Royal 12 / 17 / 12
Montebourg 3 / 4 / 5
Valls 4 / 4 / 3

among socialist voters:
DSK 46 / 49 / 41
Hollande 11 / 15 / 25
Aubry 22 / 15 / 15
Royal 14 / 19 / 9
Montebourg 3 / - / 6
Valls 2 / 2 / 3

Of course, Hollande's surge is the big story. Aubry is really low, especially among socialist voters. The only interesting result for her is that, no surprisingly, Hollande and DSK are strong among the same constituencies: upper classes, old people.
But Hollande is stronger among Mélenchon and communist voters: this is why he is a very good momentum: he may be able to kill Aubry first and then would be supported by all the left against the "horrible liberal capitalist" DSK (by default).

(and when Royal will be below Montebourg ? LOL !)

Of course, the sample are tiny, but socialist leaders (and voters) have no other reference...
And what is important is the trend, not the absolute result.


Harris Interactive for Le Parisien, 29-31 March
sample of 594 right voters (no other precision)

Do you support a candidacy from this guy ?

among right voters:
Fillon 57
Sarkozy 54
Juppé 41
Borloo 33
Villepin 29
Copé 22
Bertrand 15 ( who has decided to include him ?)
Morin 15
Dupont-Aignan 12

among UMP voters:
Sarkozy 78
Fillon 70
Juppé 47
(no other number available for the moment)

Le Parisien says Sarkozy is unavoidable: well, given the fact that we are only in April, Fillon and even Juppé (but he is too low among young voters to hope big) aren't so badly positioned.
Borloo is more disappointing given (and despite) his cool media image.
Villepin has his best result among 18-35 years old right voters (and Dupont-Aignan too):

Holland is a decent guy. Not very charismatic but competent

[Umengus]

against Aubry, Sarkozy will win. Aubry is a very bad candidate for prime time : no charisma, no sympathy, stupid ideas,... and sarkozy is a .ng good candidate...

but against hollande, sarkozy will lose.

===offensive content removed===

[Umengus]

Looks like your prophecy about Karachi is finally realizing.

Yeah... Bazire... c'est du lourd


CSA poll for BFM TV, RMC and 20 Minutes, 19-20 September 2011, 835 RVs out of a whole sample of 1005

Is CSA back to its crappiness of  2007 ?

Hollande 28 / Aubry 27 / Royal 19
Sarkozy 24 / 25 / 26
Le Pen 18 / 19 / 20
Bayrou 7 / 6 / 7
Borloo 5 / 5 / 6
Villepin 5 / 5 / 5
Mélenchon 6 / 6 / 8
Joly 4 / 5 / 6
Arthaud 1.5 / 0.5 / 1
Poutou 0.5 / 0.5 / 0.5
Boutin 0.5 / 0.5 / 1
Dupont-Aignan 0.5 / 0.5 / 0.5

So, suddenly, Panzergirl is up by 3 points in CSA polls ?
Mmmmm... they may be back to their "corrections"...

What is coherent with other pollsters is that Borloo is down a bit and Bayrou a little stronger.
Still no Nihous tested.

What is even "worse" is the numbers for the PS primary. Don't ask for the size of their samples...

Among those certain or likely to vote (14% of the RVs sample) / among self-declared socialists certain or likely to vote (we don't know how many people it means...):
Hollande 34 (-3) / 47 (+2)
Aubry 27 (-4) / 31 (-8) ROFL !
Royal 19 (+3) LOL ! / 9
Montebourg 6 / 4
Valls 4 / 5
Baylet 1 / 1
none of them 3 / 1
don't know 6 / 2

Hollande 52 / 57
Aubry 40/ 40

Hollande 66 / 84
Royal 27 / 15

Aubry 66 / 82
Royal 24 / 14

These changes for Hollande, Aubry and Royal in the first round of the primary are a bit ridiculous and it casts a dark light on every other number of this poll... sigh...

Pollster, Jerome Sainte marie, says this time the result of le pen is solid.
http://www.20minutes.fr/presidentielle/792084-sondage-presidentielle-premier-tour-pen-bondit-sarkozy-stagne

ANd her former CSA result was of course an outlier because other polls gave her at 20 %