France 2012: the official thread

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Lol Bayrou.

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People still think that sex scandals matter in France as much as they do in the US.

Isn't there a little difference between an affair and (if this is true, of course) rape attempt?

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Fleeing for him would be like admitting his guiltiness, and thus authomatically becoming one of the most hated person in the world. Wherever he goes, he would almost certainly be extraded, if only due to popular pressure. And even if he weren't, he couldn't in any way "live the high life" anymore, his goods would probably be frozen and all this. If he considers that he has decent chances be acquitted (and he has, independently from his innocence : he can still be acquitted on benefit of the doubt).
And anyways, as I've said, the police still could easily keep him under control outside of jail. Assigning him a residence should have been enough.

And since you're mentioning Polanski, let's say once for all than the two affairs have absolutely nothing in common. One was an artist (not the same kind of "popularity"), the procedure was not at the same point, and his culpability was undoubted. Comparing the two affairs is pretty demagogic.

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Maybe they didn't knew it 3 days ago, now they do. And anyways the same happens in France (even though media seem a bit more measured, for what I've heard) and in the rest of the world.

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If he is innocent, yes, he is the victim of a horrendous slander and of an excessively brutal treatment.

All right, look. Whenever DSK is guilty or not (and it's up to the courts, not us, to determine this), giving him preferential treatment because he's a prominent financier and a politician would be grossly unfair toward countless suspects/accused people, who doesn't enjoy his high position.

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What annoys me is a hackery, like "omg, this is conspiracy!" or "he's surely guilty, we know DSK is that kind of person".

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Sarkozy will be re-elected.

This post is so Winfieldesque.

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Sarkozy will be re-elected.

This post is so Winfieldesque.

I'm not a Sarkozy fanboy so...no, not quite.

Then I'm really afraid to ask who is your favorite. I may not like your answer

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Juppé président !

You guys had 17 years already

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Sarkozy will be re-elected.

Elaborate.

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Sarkozy will be re-elected.

Elaborate.

Elaborate? Uh. Sarkozy will win re-election to a second term as President of the French Republic. Did I elaborate enough?

And what makes you believe so?

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Sarkozy will be re-elected.

Elaborate.

Elaborate? Uh. Sarkozy will win re-election to a second term as President of the French Republic. Did I elaborate enough?

And what makes you believe so?

The Shy Sarkozy Effect and the French Left's history of snatching defeat out of the jaws of victory.

It's not 2007 anymore. First of all, Sarkozy is an unpopular incumbent, not an "alternative" to both old-style politics, primairly represented by Chirac (not his internal ally by any means), and the epic fail called Segolene Royal, he was considered five years ago. Second of all, well before this point Segolene was already imploding and Sarko's victory (smaller than many polls predicted) was very likely.

And now, there's a giant Sarko fatigue and Hollande is nowhere close to be such an autodestructive failure like Segolene. 

"Shy Sarkozy effect"? Yeah right, just as McCain was elected due to "Bradley effect" four years ago There's no such thing.

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If Hollande is as bad as I think he'll be perhaps Sarko will make a comeback in 2017? Or do French politics not work like that?

Well, Giscard seriously considered running again in 1995 (and hoped to become Prime Minister in 1993).

Wildly unpopular -> At 47% (or at least 46%)

Not exactly a huge margin to make up with a debate against a weak performer forthcoming.

French presidential elections are like US presidential elections - the loser is always guaranteed an absolute minimum 45/46 percent of the vote. In 2008 despite being from the same party as Bush being the most hated President in American history and despite a Vice-Presidential running mate like Sarah Palin who was an object of ridicule and complete crackpot - McCain still got 46% of the vote.

By French standards, if Sarkozy loses 54-46% it will be regarded as a landslide

Indeed. For example, Mitterrand was fairly popular incumbent in 1988 and was expected to win rather easily. He got 54.02% and that was a landslide by French standards.

You might want to read up on the 2002 French presidential election.

An incumbent vs. an extremist, who suddenly advanced into second round. Kind of like 1991 Louisiana gubernatorial ("vote for crook, not a fascist"). Chirac got his 82.21% not because he was so popular, but because everyone (outside of FN, of course) hated his opponent. It would look very diffrent with regular gaullist vs. socialist runoff.

And Chirac was hardly popular. In fact, he got the lowest support for an incumbent President in the first round.

When we're talking about current election, all comparisions to the fluke of 2002 are irrevelant.

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Sarkozy will be re-elected.

OK, you posted it for like 4th time now.

Is there any reason you keep posting this one-liner outside of trolling?

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Obama beat McCain 53% to 46%, not 51% to 46%.

You forgot the Bradley effect.

Not to mention the Shy Sarkozy effect!

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Sarkozy will be re-elected!