France 2012: the official thread

[mileslunn]

Whats the most recent polling?  If all the National Front voters go to Sarkozy, that would give him on the edge and as long as he picks up a small portion of the MoDem supporters that would be enough to win.  At the same time I suspect like in many European countries a lot of those who vote for far right parties are people with low incomes who want to blame the immigrants for their economic misfortune thus I am not sure how keen they would be on Sarkozy's economic policies even if they like his immigration ones.  Finally what about turnout.  Any idea of which groups who voted in the first round will sit out the second while who are the groups that are most notorious for sitting out the first round and then voting in the second round in past elections as I understand turnout is usually higher in the second round suggesting some who sit out the first round show up in the second round.

[mileslunn]

Sarkozy will be re-elected.

Elaborate.

Elaborate? Uh. Sarkozy will win re-election to a second term as President of the French Republic.

Like Santorum won reelection in 2006?

It seems in most European elections, polls tend to underestimate support of parties on the right so I still think a Sarkozy win is possible but not likely.  Either way I don't think Hollande will win by 10 points as some polls are suggesting.  It will be much closer.  In the case of the US, they usually probe on one's likeliness to vote thus groups such as younger Americans, minorities who tend to lean left but have lower turnout rates are weighted based on how many plan to vote, not what percentage of the population they represent.  In the case of the US, only those who say they are likely or certain to vote are included whereas in most other places, they don't probe likeliness to vote and they weight each subgroup based on what share of the population they represent rather than what share of the electorate who shows up they represent.

[mileslunn]

Polls can be wrong too.  Remember the 1992 election in Britain where every poll suggested Labour Party would win but the Conservatives did.  Likewise here in Canada, almost every poll predicted the right wing Wild Rose Alliance would win the Alberta provincial election and instead the more moderate Progressive Conservatives ended winning quite handily.  A lot will depend on who shows up and also how the undecideds break.

[mileslunn]

When do the last polls come out anyways.  I often look for what direction the late breakers are heading so if we have some polls in the next day or so with Sarkozy at 48-52 or 49-51 and the trend continues on E-day, he could pull it off.  Also turnout could be a factor too as a poor turnout would probably favour Sarkozy since the demographics who traditionally have the highest turnout rates usually favour parties on the right.  I would say 20% maybe even as high as 25% sounds about right.  If anyone wants to see polls badly messing up, check out the most recent Alberta election, although I would be shocked if something that dramatic happened.

[mileslunn]

When do the last polls come out anyways.  I often look for what direction the late breakers are heading so if we have some polls in the next day or so with Sarkozy at 48-52 or 49-51 and the trend continues on E-day, he could pull it off.  Also turnout could be a factor too as a poor turnout would probably favour Sarkozy since the demographics who traditionally have the highest turnout rates usually favour parties on the right.  I would say 20% maybe even as high as 25% sounds about right.  If anyone wants to see polls badly messing up, check out the most recent Alberta election, although I would be shocked if something that dramatic happened.

i'm not sure of that. Left don't have majority on the country. If there is a poor turnout, this will be the sign than bayrou and marine voters stay home

if there is a strong turnout, the result would be close (but with a hollandist victory whatever)

Good point.  I just know in general the right does better amongst those who are more likely to show up.  I do agree that in France there are slightly more on the right than the left.  In fact in most European countries those on the right outnumber the left notwithstanding the image of Europe being a left wing continent.

[mileslunn]

i had already made a map of total left vs right without bayrou :





and there is a map total left without total non-left (from bayrou to marine)





this map is not significative for the non-left, but it is for the left

Would you have one where Marine + Sarkozy exceeded 50% and then also one where Hollande + Left Party exceeded 50%.  Either way I agree the left is not as strong as some think, although that is pretty much the case in almost every European country to varying degrees.  They are very few if any Western countries left where there are more people on the left than right.  Some would say Canada, although that is disputable either way.

[mileslunn]

Either way I agree the left is not as strong as some think, although that is pretty much the case in almost every European country to varying degrees.  They are very few if any Western countries left where there are more people on the left than right.  Some would say Canada, although that is disputable either way.

What about Germany where the SDP, Green and Linke are often over 50%?

Sometimes, but not always.  True a lot depends on how many parties you have on each side as not everybody blindly votes on ideology.

[mileslunn]

same map, but with joly with left, and NDA with right

So otherwise there are more right wing than left wing areas but in most parts of the country neither side has a clear majority.  Not too unusual though when you have a centrist option.