France 2012: the official thread

[DL]

I would enjoy seeing a second round vote between DSK and LePen with Sarko knocked out after the first round. I guess the only question in that scenario is whether DSK gets 75% or 80%.

[DL]

SO, there's a real opportunity for a 2nd round with two homophobic candidates =(

So who is "homophobic" apart from LePen?

BTW: IF a year from now we are in the final days of the campaign and the polls show a three-way dead heat in the first round  I wonder how much "strategic voting" might ensue by people on the right and the left to make sure there is no repeat of 2002. I mean if the polls were showing DSK, Sarko and LePen each at 23% - wouldn't there be enormous pressure on people thinking of voting for various minor rightwing and centre-right candidates like Bayrou and Villepin etc...to instead vote for Sarkozy to ensure that there is not a DSK vs. LePen second round? and conversely, i have to think that a lot of people thinking of voting for any of that plethora of minor leftwing and green candidates for President in the first round might instead vote for DSK to ensure that they don't do to DSK what they did to Jospin in 2002 and end up with a Sarkozy vs. LePen second round?

[DL]

Do they ever bother testing the results of a hypothetical run-off between Hollande or Aubry and Marine LePen if Sarkozy comes in third? Judging from the polls there is more of a chance of that happening than of Sarkozy/LePen run-off. I would also be very curious to see where Sarkozy's voters would go in that scenario.

[DL]

Do they ever bother testing the results of a hypothetical run-off between Hollande or Aubry and Marine LePen if Sarkozy comes in third? Judging from the polls there is more of a chance of that happening than of Sarkozy/LePen run-off. I would also be very curious to see where Sarkozy's voters would go in that scenario.

Do you ever bother to read past posts in this topic ?
There are some of such polls.

Is there a reason why you need to be so nasty and condescending in your comments? I asked a simple question - all I needed was an answer.

[DL]

If the Greens go with Hulot - will their campaign revolve around a Jacques Tati retrospective with screenings of Le Vacance de M. Hulot across France to promote their candidate?

[DL]

I guess M. Hulot will be going on a holiday!

[DL]

What passes for a "bounce" for Sarko these days means he is losing by 20 points instead of losing by 30 points....

[DL]

Actually I don't think a leftwing candidate for the presidency in France has ever has less than 46-47% of the vote in the second round and that would have been Jospin in 1995.

France at the presidential level in that barring a fluke like LePen being in the second round in 2002 - each side has a floor of about 45% - even though most polls give Hollande a 12-16% lead in the end if he wins by 7 or 8% it will be a landslide by French standards. 

[DL]

2012 Big Bad Tracker #31 - 5 December 2011      
            
Each opinion poll is ponderated with its sample and loses a ponderation of 15% each week: it may change after the autumn.            

I haven't given a ponderation based on the quality of pollsters, as big changes have occurred in their teams, without any certainty that the 2007 rating is still OK.      
And this tracker is built more out of fun than out of scientific seriousness...       

FYI: In English we don't say "ponderated" or "ponderation" - we say "weighted" and "weighting"

[DL]

Does nobody actually poll in respect of elections to the National Assemby?

Nope. As sad as this sounds, nobody cares about Legislative elections because whoever wins the prez elections has its party winning legislative elections too. Le Monde published a nice analysis a couple months ago about the political trends of France and forecasting possible results of the 2012 legislatives, but they still didn't bother enough to ask for a poll...

It was a different story when the presidential term was seven years and there would always be "mid term" legislative election outside of the presidential election cycle in France. Now the legislative election to
Just be an exclamation point after the presidential election.

[DL]

Instead of all these multiple pieces of paper - why not just have one piece of paper with all the presidential candidates listed on it and have voters mark an "x" with a pencil beside the one they want.

[DL]

The only way Sarkozy could win would be if all the polls in France were as spectacularly wrong as they were in the recent election in Alberta!! (ie: incumbent is supposed to lose by 8 points and instead wins by 10 points)...not a chance.

In 2007 as i recall the final numbers for Sarkozy and Royal were exactly what the final polls predicted.

[DL]

Either way I agree the left is not as strong as some think, although that is pretty much the case in almost every European country to varying degrees.  They are very few if any Western countries left where there are more people on the left than right.  Some would say Canada, although that is disputable either way.

What about Germany where the SDP, Green and Linke are often over 50%?

[DL]

I see no evidence that there is a "shy Sarkozy" effect. He did just as badly in the first round as all the polls predicted and in 2007 the polls all projected that he would get 55% and he ended up with 53%. If anything there was a "shy Royal" effect!

In the end, elections in France are very predictable and real upsets are rare. In 1974, the polls predicted Gisccard would win very narrowly and he won very narrowly. In 1981 the polls predicted Mitterrand would win very narrowly and won very narrowly. In 1988 the polls predicted Mitterrand would get easily re-elected and he was easily re-elected. In 1995 all the polls predicted Chirac would win and if anything the socialist Jospin made it closer than expected. We will never know what would have happened in 2002 if there had been a Chirac vs. Jospin second round...but again the results were all as predicted.

[DL]

Wildly unpopular -> At 47% (or at least 46%)

Not exactly a huge margin to make up with a debate against a weak performer forthcoming.

French presidential elections are like US presidential elections - the loser is always guaranteed an absolute minimum 45/46 percent of the vote. In 2008 despite being from the same party as Bush being the most hated President in American history and despite a Vice-Presidential running mate like Sarah Palin who was an object of ridicule and complete crackpot - McCain still got 46% of the vote.

By French standards, if Sarkozy loses 54-46% it will be regarded as a landslide

[DL]

Sarkozy is seen as more credible, more competent and dynamic than Hollande, while Hollande is seen as more likeable, serious, sincere and whatever it means - more "Proche de vos préoccupations" and more "Rassurant" and "Proche de vos convictions politiques" than Sarkozy.

"Proche de vos préoccupations" = "cares about/identifies with your concerns"
"Proche de vos convictions politiques" - "closest to your political philosophy"
"Rassurant" - reassuring

[DL]

Sarkozy will be re-elected.

OK, you posted it for like 4th time now.

Is there any reason you keep posting this one-liner outside of trolling?

Oh, yeah, there is a reason: because I think he's going to win. Next stupid question, please...

BTW: Have you figured out how to get santorum stains out of your bed sheets? What's the best detergent?

[DL]

In 2007 the final polls tended to overestimate Sarkozy by about 1.5% not that this means we should expect a similar spread. As has been said earlier, French presidential elections are like US elections for president. They are always close. a really solid win means winning 53-47...let's not forget that Obama is viewed as having won a landslide over McCain in 2008 and the popular vote was just 51-46%...I suspect that Hollande will win by about a 5% margin.