France 2012: the official thread

[Vosem]

Can someone of the French posters please translate some of this:

http://www.ifop.com/media/poll/1818-1-study_file.pdf

It's a poll about sex practices among the voters or French political parties.

I only got that FN and Far Left voters have the most sex each month, the most sex partners and the most experience with anal sex.

But some of the other questions I didn't understand.

I can, but maybe we should take it to a different thread.

I would very much like to see this.

[Vosem]

Daniel Hannan's take on this election:

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http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100150853/if-nicolas-sarkozy-thinks-the-ft-is-a-free-market-newspaper-hes-even-more-extreme-than-we-realised/

I don't think I could hate a Tory as much a Dan Hannan. And I don't think any are that deluded.

I actually think he's an asset to the Left. I mean, he's openly critical of the NHS.

It's a shame criticism of the NHS helps the left (though it's almost certainly so, unfortunately).

I haven't been paying the French election much attention until now, but I hope to give it more attention in the coming months (which, frankly, it deserves). Some first thoughts:
- Hollande will almost certainly win.
- Hollande, Sarkozy, lePen, Melenchon, and Bayrou seem like they'll be the only candidates to break 10%. It's very difficult for me to support any of the five, but the Front National scares me a bit, so I suppose I'll back Sarkozy as the most right-wing but not-scary person running. With luck, France will drift sane-right over time (a la American GOP minus social (religious, cultural, such as abortion, gay marriage) issues).

[Vosem]

Daniel Hannan's take on this election:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100150853/if-nicolas-sarkozy-thinks-the-ft-is-a-free-market-newspaper-hes-even-more-extreme-than-we-realised/

I don't think I could hate a Tory as much a Dan Hannan. And I don't think any are that deluded.

I actually think he's an asset to the Left. I mean, he's openly critical of the NHS.

It's a shame criticism of the NHS helps the left (though it's almost certainly so, unfortunately).

I haven't been paying the French election much attention until now, but I hope to give it more attention in the coming months (which, frankly, it deserves). Some first thoughts:
- Hollande will almost certainly win.
- Hollande, Sarkozy, lePen, Melenchon, and Bayrou seem like they'll be the only candidates to break 10%. It's very difficult for me to support any of the five, but the Front National scares me a bit, so I suppose I'll back Sarkozy as the most right-wing but not-scary person running. With luck, France will drift sane-right over time (a la American GOP minus social (religious, cultural, such as abortion, gay marriage) issues).

Didn't France try the American approach for past five years? Guess where they are now...

No, absolutely not. http://www.economist.com/node/12607041?story_id=12607041

[Vosem]

Daniel Hannan's take on this election:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100150853/if-nicolas-sarkozy-thinks-the-ft-is-a-free-market-newspaper-hes-even-more-extreme-than-we-realised/

I don't think I could hate a Tory as much a Dan Hannan. And I don't think any are that deluded.

I actually think he's an asset to the Left. I mean, he's openly critical of the NHS.

It's a shame criticism of the NHS helps the left (though it's almost certainly so, unfortunately).

I haven't been paying the French election much attention until now, but I hope to give it more attention in the coming months (which, frankly, it deserves). Some first thoughts:
- Hollande will almost certainly win.
- Hollande, Sarkozy, lePen, Melenchon, and Bayrou seem like they'll be the only candidates to break 10%. It's very difficult for me to support any of the five, but the Front National scares me a bit, so I suppose I'll back Sarkozy as the most right-wing but not-scary person running. With luck, France will drift sane-right over time (a la American GOP minus social (religious, cultural, such as abortion, gay marriage) issues).

Didn't France try the American approach for past five years? Guess where they are now...

No, absolutely not. http://www.economist.com/node/12607041?story_id=12607041

The economist is a right-wing news agency. Might as well ask Glenn Beck about it. Just the mention of Europe will have neutrons firing off Socialism in his brain. This is pretty much like calling Obama a socialist.

The Economist does tilt to the right, but this article includes the following specific excerpts I was trying to point out:

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I think most Democrats wouldn't even contemplate some of the actions in the first paragraph (though, then again, some would). And then, in the second paragraph, we see Moscovici saying Sarkozy isn't left-wing enough, which proves my basic point.

I haven't been paying the French election much attention until now, but I hope to give it more attention in the coming months (which, frankly, it deserves). Some first thoughts:

In the coming months ?? The countdown in my sig indicates the number of days left, FYI.

I feel dumb; you got me. Somehow I was under the impression that the first round would take place in July and the runoff in August -- stupid here.

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Even if you exclude social issues, the GOP is still insane. Even the UMP is saner on that regard.

To a French Socialist, the UMP is "saner" than the GOP. To somebody who would be critical of a nationwide universal health-care plan, critical of a lack of nationwide gun rights, and so on and so forth, the GOP is "saner" than the UMP.

[Vosem]

Did some further reading. Read about Melenchon. Don't understand how anyone in their right mind could support him. This election gets more depressing the more I find out about it.

[Vosem]

Toomey did underperform. Sarko still could win, but it would be one hell of an upset, and I would say Sarko seems set to lose in 2012 but overperform, losing 53-47, 52-48, or even 51-49. I think that might position him well for a comeback in 2017 -- he's still fairly young, and having lost once doesn't seem to be much of a taboo in France.

This race is reminding me of the recent election in Alberta to some extent -- there, the final polls showed the embattled incumbent gaining ground, with the last poll showing just a 2-point margin, while ultimately the incumbent won by 10 points. It's difficult for me to even try to imagine Antonio's reaction if all the polls show Hollande ahead and then Sarko randomly wins 55-45.

But, Hollande is probably going to win. Maybe Sarko has a 20% chance at best.