France 2012: the official thread

[Niemeyerite]

CSA for La Dépêche du Midi, 9-10 March, sample: 853

No other detail for the moment than the "big 3".

Sarkozy 19 / 24 / 24 / 24
DSK 30 / Aubry 22 / Royal 19 / Hollande 18
Le Pen 21 / 23 / 22 / 22

So, Panzergirl is always on the second round.
And only DSK qualifies.

SO, there's a real opportunity for a 2nd round with two homophobic candidates =(

[Niemeyerite]

Wow, I'm really sorry people. I wanted to say xenophobic, not homophobic haha....

[Niemeyerite]

I have to say this: I'd vote for Royal over DSK, Abry and Hollande... and I would think about voting Besancenot... but probably I would finally vote for whoever PS nominates.

[Niemeyerite]

I have to say this: I'd vote for Royal over DSK, Abry and Hollande... and I would think about voting Besancenot... but probably I would finally vote for whoever PS nominates.

*facepalm*

Yes, I know haha... I'm being honest with myself. I think Royal would make a good president

[Niemeyerite]

I have to say this: I'd vote for Royal over DSK, Abry and Hollande... and I would think about voting Besancenot... but probably I would finally vote for whoever PS nominates.

*facepalm*

Yes, I know haha... I'm being honest with myself. I think Royal would make a good president

You're insane.

I don't think so. I'm honest with myself. I could have not said nothing and you wouldn't have known I like Royal haha.. But I think she has guts I like her!

[Niemeyerite]

thanks for the explanation, hash. I don't like populism.. I don't know why I like Royal.. I could not answer you.. but I think she is a honest person.

[Niemeyerite]

Imagine 2nd round is Segolene X Le Pen. who wins?

[Niemeyerite]

Imagine 2nd round is Segolene X Le Pen. who wins?

Please don't even talk about such a nightmare. The 2007 runoff was already awful enough.

but... who wins? I think Royal wins (with big bad fab's vote).

[Niemeyerite]

OK... let me be a hack (only this time):

SEGOLENE 2012!!

[Niemeyerite]

My opinion is that he can win in the 1st. round, but he'll have to fight really hard to win in the 2nd round. Aubry may be a better candidate than Hollande. She seems to be more solid. I may be wrong, however. I'm the guy who likes Segolene
But my favourite candidate is Valls (and yes, it's only because he was born in Spain)

[Niemeyerite]

My opinion is that he can win in the 1st. round, but he'll have to fight really hard to win in the 2nd round. Aubry may be a better candidate than Hollande. She seems to be more solid. I may be wrong, however. I'm the guy who likes Segolene
But my favourite candidate is Valls (and yes, it's only because he was born in Spain)

You don't really know what Valls thinks, eh ?
Too rightist for you...

I was only joking. But I wouldn't mind having a Spanish president in France.
I've supported rightist people too (not in Spain), like Eduardo Frei, Arlen Specter, Richard Lugar or Aecio Neves.
Valls is not as conservative as those 4 are.

[Niemeyerite]

I've supported rightist people too (not in Spain), like Eduardo Frei, Arlen Specter, Richard Lugar or Aecio Neves.

This one isn't even funny. Even by European standards, Specter is not "rightist."

By a European standard, Bernie Sanders or Russ Feingold would be center-left. Specter is more center-right by European standards.

Specter IS centre-right by European and American standards. No doubts. And Sanders is to the right of many "socialist" parties here in Europe.

[Niemeyerite]

OK, I know the end of the movie.

No, Sarko won't win this time. Aubry will.

[Niemeyerite]

Has anyone said that Aubry and socialists should be killed? Is it permitted to be, let's say, "radical" complaining of a multicultural society or muslim influence and presence without thinking of slaughters and without being blamed of sympathy with Breivik? I hope, because freddom of speech is important, and at the same time I wouldn't like to see anti-americanists, anti-israeli movements to be accused to be Al Qaeda supporters, for instance.

he's not saying we should kill socialists. But a radical who reads "aubry has connections with the Islam" may think he must do anything to save France from the muslims.

[Niemeyerite]

I'm supporting Aubry now, definitely. I don't think that's good for Aubry supporters... I tend to support the loser candidate.

[Niemeyerite]

Strange numbers from that LH2 poll... I wouldn't believe them.

[Niemeyerite]

Fab, the new French pbower???

(Just joking)

[Niemeyerite]

Fab, the new French pbower???

(Just joking)

Why are you so aggressive with me, Julio ?


Hold on, guys ! You are going to be happy !
Tonight, I'll modify my yesterday's tracker, as IPSOS has published, this morning, a new poll made this last week-end.

IPSOS poll for Radio-France, France-Télévisions, Le Monde, 2-3 September 2011, sample 963

Hollande 30 / Aubry 27 / Royal 19
Sarkozy 22 / 23 / 23
Le Pen 17 / 18 / 18
Borloo 7 / 7 / 9
Bayrou 6 / 6 / 7
Joly 5 / 6 / 7
Mélenchon 5 / 5.5 / 8.5
Arthaud 2 / 2.5 / 2
Poutou 0.5 / 0.5 / 0.5
Villepin 4.5 / 3.5 / 5
Dupont-Aignan 1 / 1 / 1
Boutin and Nihous not included

IPSOS is more in line with IFOP, with socialists high but not above 30, with Sarkozy under 25 and Le Pen still threatening for him.

Borloo is down and Villepin slightly on the rise.
Arthaud is really "high" in IPSOS polls. Joly is down here too.

The internals are as usual, with Hollande having a wider base than Aubry and a centre ground deeply splitted but very fluid.

IPSOS worries me a bit since the beginning of this 2012 season:
Boutin and Nihous still not included; Villepin higher in Hollande scenario than in Aubry one; Mélenchon higher in Aubry scenario than in Hollande one;... there are some weaknesses in what was the best pollster in 2007.
But, again, one pollster is right and we don't know which one and won't know until the end .

Anyway, with an addition of 963 people, the effect of LH2 will really be diluted.
Tonight, a new tracker .

This poll is more realistic, IMHO. I'm not aggresive. I like pBower hahaha...

[Niemeyerite]

It will be interesting to see if the next polls show a post-Senate bounce (and also how much impact the "Karachigate" will have).

I suppose I'll move to France if socialists beat Sarko in 2012, and everything goes as expected here and PP wins the GE as they did last May, winning everywhere...

[Niemeyerite]

Where can I see the results of the Sofres poll?

[Niemeyerite]

Thanks, fab. It was a good night for Hollande because nothing interesting happened. He's still the frontrunner, and Aubry a distant second =(

However, the "most convincing" question has more than 100% of the vote overall xD how's that possible? I hope Hollande is the most convincing for 31% of the people, not 41%...

[Niemeyerite]

You can say whatever you want about Royal... BUT I STILL LIKE HER!!!

However, I support Aubry, of course... The Spanish one hasn't got a chance, and Hollande seems to be just OK...

[Niemeyerite]

Fabulous blog, Fab. I'll be sure to include it on my blogroll.

This, Congratulations and thanks

[Niemeyerite]

I hope Hollande gets less than 45% of the vote and Aubry more than 35%, with Royal coming 3rd.

My prediction:

Hollande 43%
Auby 31%
Royal 10.5%
Montebourg 8%
Valls 6%
Baylet 1.5% (better than expected)

[Niemeyerite]

I hope Montebourg supports Aubry. She's the best candidate, and I agree with Antonio: to campaign against Sarko, she's the best.