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| | | |-+  UT-Dan Jones: Gov. Herbert (R) leads Matheson (D) by 10
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Author Topic: UT-Dan Jones: Gov. Herbert (R) leads Matheson (D) by 10  (Read 1010 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: January 19, 2011, 02:23:18 am »



# Herbert should be very happy that Utah is more than 2-1 Republican over Democrat. Jones found that while Herbert beats Matheson 70-21 percent among Republicans, Matheson wins among Democrats 84-12 percent and among the critical independent voters 47-42 percent.

# Matheson, a moderate-to-conservative Democrat, wins in Salt Lake County – the eastside of which is in his 2nd District -- but loses to Herbert in all other areas of the state.

# Most Republicans are Mormons, and Herbert wins in the LDS vote 59-31 percent. Matheson wins among voters who said they belong to some other religion, or have no religion.

# Finally, just how tough the 2nd District is for Democrats is found in this: Even though Matheson has won his U.S. House seat fairly comfortably when up against less-well-known GOP opponents, in a match-up with Herbert in the governor’s race, 2nd District voters picked Herbert over their own congressman, 46-41 percent.

http://utahpolicy.com/featured_article/herbert-would-best-matheson-2012
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Niemeyerite
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« Reply #1 on: January 19, 2011, 10:29:52 am »
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OK, so there could be a close race in Utah.. I didn't think it could happen there for the next 100 years... but at first, let's see if matherson wants to run for something else in utah.
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IDS Attorney General PiT
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« Reply #2 on: January 19, 2011, 01:16:46 pm »
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     Matheson's pretty comfortable in his House seat. He'd be foolish to give it up for a longshot at taking down Herbert. Trailing by 10% this far out isn't horrible...for a little-known challenger. Thing is, Matheson is already pretty well-known, so making up that deficit would be quite a challenge for him.
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« Reply #3 on: January 19, 2011, 02:19:54 pm »
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     Matheson's pretty comfortable in his House seat. He'd be foolish to give it up for a longshot at taking down Herbert. Trailing by 10% this far out isn't horrible...for a little-known challenger. Thing is, Matheson is already pretty well-known, so making up that deficit would be quite a challenge for him.
Agreed. While he is probably the only Democrat that could get low 40s I doubt he could actually win in a 2 person race.
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Dgov
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« Reply #4 on: January 19, 2011, 07:35:33 pm »
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     Matheson's pretty comfortable in his House seat. He'd be foolish to give it up for a longshot at taking down Herbert. Trailing by 10% this far out isn't horrible...for a little-known challenger. Thing is, Matheson is already pretty well-known, so making up that deficit would be quite a challenge for him.
Agreed. While he is probably the only Democrat that could get low 40s I doubt he could actually win in a 2 person race.

And it's not like he'd be able to actually DO much as governor.  Utah Republicans gerrymandered their seats well enough to hold like 75% in both houses, so they could easily override his veto if they wanted to.
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« Reply #5 on: January 19, 2011, 07:57:54 pm »
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     Matheson's pretty comfortable in his House seat. He'd be foolish to give it up for a longshot at taking down Herbert. Trailing by 10% this far out isn't horrible...for a little-known challenger. Thing is, Matheson is already pretty well-known, so making up that deficit would be quite a challenge for him.

In his house seat as it is currently crafted, you mean? Wink
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« Reply #6 on: January 20, 2011, 06:11:35 pm »
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     Matheson's pretty comfortable in his House seat. He'd be foolish to give it up for a longshot at taking down Herbert. Trailing by 10% this far out isn't horrible...for a little-known challenger. Thing is, Matheson is already pretty well-known, so making up that deficit would be quite a challenge for him.

In his house seat as it is currently crafted, you mean? Wink

     Of course they'll probably try to get rid of him again, but I find it unlikely that they could give him a raw enough deal that he would actually be better off attempting an uphill battle against the incumbent Governor.
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« Reply #7 on: January 21, 2011, 08:18:15 pm »
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Well if the Utah GOP decides to destroy his seat somehow, I guess he could make a hail-marry run for the governor's office.
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(Part of the 2012 Election Throwback Series)
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