US House Redistricting: Arizona

[phk]

Forgot about Kerry.

Mass in 2000 was D+27.3, in 2004 it was D+25.16. National R swing of +3, so a 1 point effect?

[krazen1211]

The Hispanics are complaining, again.

http://azstarnet.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/elections/article_66b808fd-b973-5f82-a62a-08c0944b2310.html

[krazen1211]

The GOP got some very desirable changes.

http://www.azredistricting.org/Maps/pubmaps/100311/Map_as_of_100211/Cong-Map_as_of_100211.pdf

The Green district is absurd though

[Senator Sbane]

Does the orange 9th district still take in parts of Mesa and Chandler? And from the looks of it, the 1st district becomes even more Democratic as it loses parts of Cochise and picks up West Sedona and what looks like marginal areas of Pinal?

And the Tucscon district becomes 50-48 Mccain, or even more Republican?

[Torie]

The GOP got some very desirable changes.

http://www.azredistricting.org/Maps/pubmaps/100311/Map_as_of_100211/Cong-Map_as_of_100211.pdf

The Green district is absurd though

The map appears to be a joke, putting aside the partisan break stuff. The law in my view appears to have been totally ignored. It will probably be upheld though. There must be a better way. I wish I knew what that was. Maybe a computer should do it! 

[Torie]

Does the orange 9th district still take in parts of Mesa and Chandler? And from the looks of it, the 1st district becomes even more Democratic as it loses parts of Cochise and picks up West Sedona and what looks like marginal areas of Pinal?

And the Tucscon district becomes 50-48 Mccain, or even more Republican?

That break would make the Tucson CD a true swing CD, I would think. I basically agree with your analysis on that one sbane as it turns out. Well not quite, maybe D +1%. 56% for the 6% favorite son thing, less 4% for the Obama margin, equals 52% to 48%, as the dead even figure. Close enough anyway. The Pubbies should take the seat in 2012 if Giffords does not run, and the Pubbies don't nominate another socon unelectable type as they have been wont to do since the gay guy retired. You are a pretty smart guy. Why didn't you aspire to be a lawyer? 

[CultureKing]

Is that map contiguous?

[Senator Sbane]

Does the orange 9th district still take in parts of Mesa and Chandler? And from the looks of it, the 1st district becomes even more Democratic as it loses parts of Cochise and picks up West Sedona and what looks like marginal areas of Pinal?

And the Tucscon district becomes 50-48 Mccain, or even more Republican?

That break would make the Tucson CD a true swing CD, I would think. I basically agree with your analysis on that one sbane as it turns out. Well not quite, maybe D +1%. 56% for the 6% favorite son thing, less 4% for the Obama margin, equals 52% to 48%, as the dead even figure. Close enough anyway. The Pubbies should take the seat in 2012 if Giffords does not run, and the Pubbies don't nominate another socon unelectable type as they have been wont to do since the gay guy retired. You are a pretty smart guy. Why didn't you aspire to be a lawyer? 

Job market sucks for you guys. Not that you would know.

[Torie]

Does the orange 9th district still take in parts of Mesa and Chandler? And from the looks of it, the 1st district becomes even more Democratic as it loses parts of Cochise and picks up West Sedona and what looks like marginal areas of Pinal?

And the Tucscon district becomes 50-48 Mccain, or even more Republican?

That break would make the Tucson CD a true swing CD, I would think. I basically agree with your analysis on that one sbane as it turns out. Well not quite, maybe D +1%. 56% for the 6% favorite son thing, less 4% for the Obama margin, equals 52% to 48%, as the dead even figure. Close enough anyway. The Pubbies should take the seat in 2012 if Giffords does not run, and the Pubbies don't nominate another socon unelectable type as they have been wont to do since the gay guy retired. You are a pretty smart guy. Why didn't you aspire to be a lawyer? 

Job market sucks for you guys. Not that you would know.

Nope I wouldn't.  I am one lucky guy. But then you already knew that.

[asexual trans victimologist]

So what are the PVIs for these districts like? I'm guessing the pink one got slightly more Republican (so, tilt R overall), probably two Dem districts in Maricopa along with the Hispanic border district, and the blue one seems like a swing district. Am I at all close?

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

The GOP got some very desirable changes.

http://www.azredistricting.org/Maps/pubmaps/100311/Map_as_of_100211/Cong-Map_as_of_100211.pdf

The Green district is absurd though

The funny thing is that the Republicans on the Commission don't seem to think that those changes are very desirable. Mathis, Herrera, and McNulty voted yes, Stertz voted no, and Freeman abstained.

[krazen1211]

The GOP got some very desirable changes.

http://www.azredistricting.org/Maps/pubmaps/100311/Map_as_of_100211/Cong-Map_as_of_100211.pdf

The Green district is absurd though

The funny thing is that the Republicans on the Commission don't seem to think that those changes are very desirable. Mathis, Herrera, and McNulty voted yes, Stertz voted no, and Freeman abstained.

Well, the orange district still butchers municipalities.

The GOP should ask for the pieces of Chandler to be removed in exchange for more of Mesa.

[Torie]

The GOP got some very desirable changes.

http://www.azredistricting.org/Maps/pubmaps/100311/Map_as_of_100211/Cong-Map_as_of_100211.pdf

The Green district is absurd though

The funny thing is that the Republicans on the Commission don't seem to think that those changes are very desirable. Mathis, Herrera, and McNulty voted yes, Stertz voted no, and Freeman abstained.

I am not sure the GOP got as much as Krazen assumed. The territory in Cochise added to the Tucson CD seems to have far more cattle than people, three heavily Pubbie albeit small precincts in Santa Cruz were excised, and LDS Stafford in Cochise isn't in it. Maybe I will draw it tonight and find out. It does seem however that about 5 heavily Dem precincts in Tucson were removed.

[muon2]

The GOP got some very desirable changes.

http://www.azredistricting.org/Maps/pubmaps/100311/Map_as_of_100211/Cong-Map_as_of_100211.pdf

The Green district is absurd though

The map appears to be a joke, putting aside the partisan break stuff. The law in my view appears to have been totally ignored. It will probably be upheld though. There must be a better way. I wish I knew what that was. Maybe a computer should do it! 

Actually, computers are notoriously bad at drawing districts as soon as there are more than a couple variables to optimize. OTOH, they are very good at evaluating maps based on a lengthy list of criteria. Of course, the humans would need to agree to those criteria.

[Senator Sbane]

The GOP got some very desirable changes.

http://www.azredistricting.org/Maps/pubmaps/100311/Map_as_of_100211/Cong-Map_as_of_100211.pdf

The Green district is absurd though

The funny thing is that the Republicans on the Commission don't seem to think that those changes are very desirable. Mathis, Herrera, and McNulty voted yes, Stertz voted no, and Freeman abstained.

Well, the orange district still butchers municipalities.

The GOP should ask for the pieces of Chandler to be removed in exchange for more of Mesa.

You guys got what you wanted in Tucson though. Can't have it all. Unless CD-1 became much more Democratic, which I doubt. It was about 6 points Mccain when I drew it before. Now it's probably 4-5 points Mccain I am guessing. Slight lean Republican and you have a slight lean Democratic district in Phoenix. True swing district in Tucson and the 2 VRA districts. I wish a google maps version of the district is released.

[Torie]

The GOP got some very desirable changes.

http://www.azredistricting.org/Maps/pubmaps/100311/Map_as_of_100211/Cong-Map_as_of_100211.pdf

The Green district is absurd though

The funny thing is that the Republicans on the Commission don't seem to think that those changes are very desirable. Mathis, Herrera, and McNulty voted yes, Stertz voted no, and Freeman abstained.

Well, the orange district still butchers municipalities.

The GOP should ask for the pieces of Chandler to be removed in exchange for more of Mesa.

You guys got what you wanted in Tucson though. Can't have it all. Unless CD-1 became much more Democratic, which I doubt. It was about 6 points Mccain when I drew it before. Now it's probably 4-5 points Mccain I am guessing. Slight lean Republican and you have a slight lean Democratic district in Phoenix. True swing district in Tucson and the 2 VRA districts. I wish a google maps version of the district is released.

Your wish is my command.  

[Senator Sbane]

Thanks.

[muon2]

The GOP got some very desirable changes.

http://www.azredistricting.org/Maps/pubmaps/100311/Map_as_of_100211/Cong-Map_as_of_100211.pdf

The Green district is absurd though

The funny thing is that the Republicans on the Commission don't seem to think that those changes are very desirable. Mathis, Herrera, and McNulty voted yes, Stertz voted no, and Freeman abstained.

Well, the orange district still butchers municipalities.

The GOP should ask for the pieces of Chandler to be removed in exchange for more of Mesa.

You guys got what you wanted in Tucson though. Can't have it all. Unless CD-1 became much more Democratic, which I doubt. It was about 6 points Mccain when I drew it before. Now it's probably 4-5 points Mccain I am guessing. Slight lean Republican and you have a slight lean Democratic district in Phoenix. True swing district in Tucson and the 2 VRA districts. I wish a google maps version of the district is released.

According to the commission report CD-1 and CD-2 are both rated at 51.8% R to 48.2% D, and CD-9 is rated at 50.3% R to 49.7% D. Those seem to be based on a basket of elections from 2008 and 2010. Of the other districts the two HVAP majority districts CD-3
(54.8% HVAP) and CD-7 (57.6% HVAP) are solid D, the others are all solid R.

[Wrecking Ball and Chain]

So how's the Tuscon district rated? It doesn't look much more Republican than the current district.

[asexual trans victimologist]

So how's the Tuscon district rated? It doesn't look much more Republican than the current district.

From what I can discern, it is but only slightly. 1, 2, and 9 are very much swing districts.

[Torie]

So how's the Tuscon district rated? It doesn't look much more Republican than the current district.

Dem PVI per my baseline of Dem +2%.  The Dems were very clever. Vis a vis the Commission's prior map, they sliced a lot of McCain precincts out of the NW suburbs to mostly offset the Cochise County action, while upping the Hispanic percentage in the border Hispanic CD all at the same time!

The currently existing AZ-08 was what you ask? It was:   The Dems moved it 3 full points in their direction from its current incarnation.

[Senator Sbane]

The Tucson district should have been even more Democratic if you ask me! But I guess the Mexicans need their district. And the Phoenix district shouldn't have been dipping in and out of Mesa and Chandler but I guess they wanted a more Dem swing district up there. So Mccain won the Tuscon district by 3 points then? Have you drawn the Phoenix swing district or the 1st yet?

[muon2]

So how's the Tuscon district rated? It doesn't look much more Republican than the current district.

From what I can discern, it is but only slightly. 1, 2, and 9 are very much swing districts.

Creating competitive swing districts is a clear goal of the commission. There was a presentation last month analyzing the correlation between various averages and the predicted competitiveness, but its not completely clear which average went into their actual district analysis. They discuss a number of models, and the slides don't say which one is adopted.
I'll probably have to watch the video of the meeting to know for sure.

If I look at the table in the presented slides the best correlated average takes the average of the two-party vote in the two 2008 statewide races, the same for the seven 2010 statewide races, and the fraction of registrations between the two parties. That has a partisan split of 54.5% R and 45.5% D statewide. My best guess is that this was used in the commission report on the districts.

For comparison, another measure used 10 years ago was the "Arizona quick and dirty." It uses only the Corporate Commission races from the two most recent elections. That gives 54.3% R to 45.7% D. That would be consistent with the measure I identified in the previous paragraph.

[Gravis Marketing]

How was this map an improvement for Republicans?

[krazen1211]

The GOP got some very desirable changes.

http://www.azredistricting.org/Maps/pubmaps/100311/Map_as_of_100211/Cong-Map_as_of_100211.pdf

The Green district is absurd though

The funny thing is that the Republicans on the Commission don't seem to think that those changes are very desirable. Mathis, Herrera, and McNulty voted yes, Stertz voted no, and Freeman abstained.

I am not sure the GOP got as much as Krazen assumed. The territory in Cochise added to the Tucson CD seems to have far more cattle than people, three heavily Pubbie albeit small precincts in Santa Cruz were excised, and LDS Stafford in Cochise isn't in it. Maybe I will draw it tonight and find out. It does seem however that about 5 heavily Dem precincts in Tucson were removed.

Yeah, looks like it. The Giffords district moved about a point to the right, and that is about it. The more of Pinal County in CD-1, though, the better; as that area will hopefully get the GOP spillover votes moving in from Maricopa and grow faster than the Natives.

5-4 is probably more likely than 6-3 so the Democrats probably net a district. 7-2 is of course very easy to draw with the trifecta but such is life.