US House Redistricting: Arizona
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 09:09:52 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  General Politics
  Political Geography & Demographics (Moderators: muon2, 15 Down, 35 To Go)
  US House Redistricting: Arizona
« previous next »
Pages: 1 2 3 [4] 5 6 7 8 9 ... 21
Author Topic: US House Redistricting: Arizona  (Read 69072 times)
Torie
Moderators
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 46,057
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #75 on: August 20, 2011, 06:07:29 PM »

After having eyeballed it more closely, I am not sure the grid splits either Mesa or Tempe, and that is the starting point - as a matter of law. The prior map is legally irrelevant, except to the extent it reveals the Commission's methodology 10 years ago vis a vis the grid map at that time. If one of the towns is going to be split, there needs to be a non partisan reason to do it. If the grid splits one of the towns, then the presumption is that it shall be split, unless there is a non partisan rebuttal to that.
Logged
minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,207
India


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #76 on: August 21, 2011, 03:32:12 AM »

By the way, the only CD I drew as AZ-07. The rest are just the old CD's, erased in places.

Anyway, as you no doubt know, per the law,  you need to follow county lines and so forth unless there is a good non-partisan reason not to do so.  So Santa Cruz and Yuma Counties should be kept together, and Maricopa and any other county not named "Pima" not impinged.
Except that Arizona's county lines are so strange as to leave, like, Yavapai and Cochise as the only counties where such good reasons do not exist?
Logged
Torie
Moderators
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 46,057
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #77 on: August 21, 2011, 09:01:37 AM »

By the way, the only CD I drew as AZ-07. The rest are just the old CD's, erased in places.

Anyway, as you no doubt know, per the law,  you need to follow county lines and so forth unless there is a good non-partisan reason not to do so.  So Santa Cruz and Yuma Counties should be kept together, and Maricopa and any other county not named "Pima" not impinged.
Except that Arizona's county lines are so strange as to leave, like, Yavapai and Cochise as the only counties where such good reasons do not exist?


Perhaps.  As Sam Spade is wont to say, we shall see.  "Compactness," inter alia, is a legal bullet point.
Logged
minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,207
India


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #78 on: August 21, 2011, 12:30:01 PM »

Yah, I didn't say that all other counties would be split. (And I might have added Yuma and La Paz, unless you're really desperate for that 50.1VAP Hispanic.)
Logged
Torie
Moderators
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 46,057
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #79 on: August 21, 2011, 03:29:00 PM »
« Edited: August 21, 2011, 04:28:32 PM by Torie »

Yah, I didn't say that all other counties would be split. (And I might have added Yuma and La Paz, unless you're really desperate for that 50.1VAP Hispanic.)

Yes, desperate. It must be done - period.

And now the grid - more or less (the voting districts don't match).  The VRA more or less will get rid of two competitive CD's (and save Grijalva's career while probably ending Gifford's (to the extent it has not already ended)). After subtracting  4 GOP PVI points for the McCain bias (yes it is a full 4 points (and don't argue with me because I'm right!, so add 30 basis points net to Obama's percentages to get the baseline for PVI calculations), AZ-01 is  weak lean Dem, and AZ-02 is swing.  AZ-09 is a  strong lean GOP per the grid, but I suspect the Commission will do a clockwise rotation here to get AZ-09 to pick up the southern end of Scottsdale from AZ-07 (shoving up the Hispanic percentage in AZ-07 which is now right at about 50% Hispanic VAP as well as respecting municipal boundaries). That southern end of Scottsdale is about 55-45 Obama or so, and maybe a bit more. In exchange, AZ-09 will probably lose some heavily GOP precincts on its northwest side. That will probably shove AZ-09 down to  maybe a 2.5% GOP PVI, or a mid lean GOP seat.  Still that will make AZ-09 2 to 3 points more Pubbie than it is now. Stay tuned.

By the way, the CD numbering has been totally changed by the Commission, so forget whatever CD numbers you had in mind before when thinking about individual CD's. It's a whole new ball game.

So given the VRA, AZ-01 will be  a weak safe Pubbie seat (something over a 4% GOP PVI), or very close to it, AZ-02 and AZ-07 safe Dem, and the rest of the seats safe GOP.  So the Dems will have about 2.25 seats, and the GOP 6.75 seats as it were. That is my initial surmise. We shall see what happens when I play with it a bit more. AZ-03 is obviously going to change a lot, and it might influence the overall design here and there  potentially.






Logged
Torie
Moderators
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 46,057
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #80 on: August 21, 2011, 06:52:39 PM »
« Edited: August 22, 2011, 08:28:36 PM by Torie »

Maps used to be here, but have been revised some so are now below in the thread. However others quoted my old text so you can see them in those posts below before my later revision appears. I decided I don't like to clutter threads with zillions of my map revisions!
Logged
krazen1211
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,372


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #81 on: August 21, 2011, 09:45:27 PM »
« Edited: August 21, 2011, 10:09:36 PM by krazen1211 »

Impressive, sir. I see that you split Tempe also, although you did use one of the 2 Hispanic districts to do so.

I suspect one of the weaknesses of this configuration is that the blue and red districts could easily end up with Maricopa reps.

This type of 7-2 map that we have drawn would be a grand slam.

I tried to use your CD-7 (Grijalva) in this map. 5 interior Maricopa districts, the 1 to the north, the 2 to the south, and 1 looping one to gather the rest.

I like that Phoenix is only split 3 ways here. Technically I suppose it is 4, but the light blue 9th has almost none of Phoenix.




Logged
freepcrusher
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,828
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #82 on: August 21, 2011, 09:50:53 PM »

the northeast and northwest district looks like the 3rd and 4th districts of the 70s and 80s
Logged
krazen1211
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,372


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #83 on: August 21, 2011, 10:10:16 PM »

the northeast and northwest district looks like the 3rd and 4th districts of the 70s and 80s

Yes, that is why i suspect the grid map will be swapped for a Great Native North district like mine.
Logged
Torie
Moderators
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 46,057
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #84 on: August 21, 2011, 10:17:03 PM »
« Edited: August 21, 2011, 10:20:03 PM by Torie »

My split of Tempe just followed the grid. I had no intention of touching that grid split, unless there was a good reason to do so. As it happens, the split just makes the CD's look more compact. And some towns needed to be split to equalize population, and Tempe is it between AZ-07 and AZ-06. Each CD has only one municipal split between them, unless there is a damn good reason for more than one, and there was in a couple of instances. Discipline, discipline baby, is what it is all about.

I might note that I followed the grid for Maricopa, and adjusted it per the legal parameters, without really knowing as an initial matter what the partisan impact would be. Then I checked, as it is relevant actually for "communities of interest" issues, and then checked topography (I am somewhat familiar with it in AZ, to look for arterial connections and mountain barriers). It just happened that the lay of the land, the Commission's choice of the grid, and the VRA, worked for the Pubbies in AZ - big time.

Tuscon was another matter, but that in the end just fell together too - barely.
Logged
Torie
Moderators
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 46,057
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #85 on: August 21, 2011, 10:21:36 PM »
« Edited: August 21, 2011, 10:29:20 PM by Torie »

the northeast and northwest district looks like the 3rd and 4th districts of the 70s and 80s

Yes, that is why i suspect the grid map will be swapped for a Great Native North district like mine.

What is the legal reason for departing from the grid up north? And for Phoenix, where you have a radical change?  Also, the grey sea around the Phoenix island violates compactness, - and communities of interest. It is just a grab bag of rural and exurban areas. That is the rap you will face.
Logged
krazen1211
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,372


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #86 on: August 21, 2011, 10:28:12 PM »

the northeast and northwest district looks like the 3rd and 4th districts of the 70s and 80s

Yes, that is why i suspect the grid map will be swapped for a Great Native North district like mine.

What is the legal reason for departing from the grid up north? And for Phoenix?  Also, the Phoenix island in the grey sky violates compactness.

Well, I actually drew my map well before the grid, and I haven't really tweaked it to exactly match the grid parameters. So I would not look at my map from that angle.

The legal reason, I suppose, is 'Respect for communities of interest'; namely, the entire northern rural and native communities do not want to be represented by anyone from suburban Phoenix. They want their own rep (Gosar) and after complaining about it for decades, finally got it.
Logged
Torie
Moderators
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 46,057
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #87 on: August 21, 2011, 10:34:48 PM »
« Edited: August 21, 2011, 11:24:58 PM by Torie »

Except that Mojave County in the current map is not in the northern AZ CD. It would be interesting to know that the 2001 grid map looked like. And the Phoenix metro area has only a small share for both northern CD's - particularly AZ-04, but about two thirds of AZ-05 (at least) is also outside the Phoenix metro area. AZ-03 is a cross over CD. This map actually reduces Phoenix domination vis a vis your concept.

The Hopi in my map might be shoved into AZ-04 by the way. It can be done with this map a lot easier than it was last time.  That changes next to nothing really.

Addendum: Actually two thirds of AZ-05 is in Maricopa County. My bad. But consider AZ-04 your great northern CD. And per below, you can see that AZ-03 is a 50-50 proposition between Phoenix metro and the much more rural hinterlands.



And here are the old CD's. As you can see, only AZ-01 was really "free" from either Phoenix or Tucson domination. One CD remains that way, it just is now called AZ-04.  And rural AZ (sort of), gets another half CD from the new AZ-03.

Logged
CARLHAYDEN
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,638


Political Matrix
E: 1.38, S: -0.51

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #88 on: August 22, 2011, 10:48:35 AM »

The map is done.  Yes, I know, it's brilliant. Thanks. Smiley

From the 2001 map, GOP picks up 2 seats in AZ (the new seat plus the Gifford's seat), plus makes a swing CD, AZ-09, move from very weak GOP lean (about a 2% GOP PVI) to weak  GOP safe (4.3% GOP PVI). The old northern CD, then labeled AZ-01, was a about a 4% GOP PVI (so on the cusp between "safe" and "lean"), and is now replaced with two safe northern CD's as well.

The commission never gets to its final (and secondary) parameter, after having maxed the others, to wit, "competitiveness." This map degrades it, but it meets all the paramount parameters I think - to a tee. AZ-07 by the way bounces up from the grid from around 50% Hispanic VAP, to 55.4% Hispanic VAP. In the 2001 map, it was around 60% Hispanic VAP. It needs to be juiced up from the grid - and it is. The Lord wants 50% plus Hispanic CVAP to the extent possible (it isn't with AZ-02, and it takes work to get up even to 50% VAP), and I am here to serve him. Smiley



The numbers are off because Arizona specializes in huge precincts in places, large numbers of which are over 4,000, and a fair number between 4,000 and 10,000, with a few even larger than that. They will have to be bifurcated.  (Addendum: the map was slightly revised to separate the Hopi from the Navajo, since the Commission will almost certainly do that, just like it did 10 years ago. when it really had to reach to do it.)



From the grid, AZ-09 picks up the southern end of Scottsdale per plan, and loses a southern tier of Phoenix precincts to AZ-07, AZ-03 gets all of Chandler, and picks up a bunch of precincts that were in AZ-07 at its southern end, but were on the wrong side of some impassible mountain (that big green precinct in AZ-07 at its now southern edge), plus have nothing in common with the balance of AZ-07 (high income white and Republican) and thus a ludicrous appendage even though in Phoenix (the southern tier of these precincts in Phoenix were already in now AZ-03 per the grid, and I just added the balance of them), and AZ-03 needed the precincts anyway, AZ-06 gets most of Gilbert except the two southern most precincts, and the balance of Mesa (except for a small slice at its NE corner which the grid assigned to AZ-05, and needs to say there), AZ-05 picks up the rest of Gila County, AZ-01 picks up the rest of Greenlee County, and loses its share of Santa Cruz to AZ-02, and all is right with the world.  



A lagniappe is that I figured out an absolutely gorgeous gerry of Tuscon which also manages to max compactness.  Isn't that just special?  Tongue



A very good map.

Far better than either of the two maps produced by the Commission.

But then, the Commission is composed of three Democrats (one of whom made a claim to be and Independent), and two Republicans. 

Naturally the three Democrats voted to hire a Democrat firm to do the Gerrymandering, er, redistricting.
Logged
Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)
Vazdul
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,295
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #89 on: August 22, 2011, 10:51:41 AM »

It would be interesting to know that the 2001 grid map looked like.

Here's the initial grid:



Here's the draft map based on the grid:



Here are transcripts and minutes from the previous Commission's meetings.

http://2001.azredistricting.org/?page=meetings

And the motherload- here are videos of the current Commission's meetings.

http://www.azredistricting.org/Meeting-Info/default.asp
Logged
minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,207
India


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #90 on: August 22, 2011, 11:02:40 AM »

You do understand that your split of the Navajo Nation along the grid line has a 0.1% chance of happening, do you Torie?
Logged
Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)
Vazdul
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,295
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #91 on: August 22, 2011, 11:11:50 AM »
« Edited: August 22, 2011, 11:13:45 AM by Johannes Overgaard, Antillan MP (SPP-Bronseland) »

Oh, and here's a live stream of the current meeting, which is just starting:

http://www.azredistricting.org/stream/default.asp
Logged
Torie
Moderators
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 46,057
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #92 on: August 22, 2011, 12:30:17 PM »
« Edited: August 22, 2011, 12:41:29 PM by Torie »

You do understand that your split of the Navajo Nation along the grid line has a 0.1% chance of happening, do you Torie?

Perhaps Lewis, you should look at my map more closely. Why on earth would I do that to the Navajos?
Tongue

Moving right along, AZ-05 is the land of the Mormons, and their lost tribe of Israel friends, the native Americans, to a quite substantial degree. And of course they should be all together (except for the Hopi dissidents who just don't play well with others).  Smiley
Logged
Torie
Moderators
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 46,057
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #93 on: August 22, 2011, 08:22:01 PM »
« Edited: August 22, 2011, 09:20:47 PM by Torie »

The map is done.  Yes, I know, it's brilliant. Thanks. Smiley  (Addendum: yes, I know,  it is even more brilliant with this 4th revision of my post after Lewis pointed out the Navajo Reservation split, and I kept working a bit more on municipal unification (getting rid of a tri-chop for Peoria for example), and compactness maximization, and communities of interest connecting.   Tongue

From the 2001 map, GOP picks up 2 seats in AZ (the new seat plus the Gifford's seat), plus makes a swing CD, AZ-09, move from very weak GOP lean (about a 2% GOP PVI) to weak  GOP safe (4.3% GOP PVI). The old northern CD, then labeled AZ-01, was a about a 4% GOP PVI (so on the cusp between "safe" and "lean"), and is now replaced with two safe northern CD's as well.

The commission never gets to its final (and secondary) parameter, after having maxed the others, to wit, "competitiveness." This map degrades it, but it meets all the paramount parameters I think - to a tee. AZ-07 by the way bounces up from the grid from around 50% Hispanic VAP, to 55.4% Hispanic VAP. In the 2001 map, it was around 60% Hispanic VAP. It needs to be juiced up from the grid - and it is. The Lord wants 50% plus Hispanic CVAP to the extent possible (it isn't with AZ-02, and it takes work to get up even to 50% VAP), and I am here to serve him. Smiley



The numbers are off because Arizona specializes in huge precincts in places, large numbers of which are over 4,000, and a fair number between 4,000 and 10,000, with a few even larger than that. They will have to be bifurcated.  (Addendum: the map was slightly revised to separate the Hopi from the Navajo, since the Commission will almost certainly do that, just like it did 10 years ago. when it really had to reach to do it.)



From the grid, AZ-09 picks up the southern end of Scottsdale per plan, and loses a southern tier of Phoenix precincts to AZ-07, AZ-03 gets all of Chandler, and picks up a bunch of precincts that were in AZ-07 at its southern end, but were on the wrong side of some impassible mountain (that big green precinct in AZ-07 at its now southern edge), plus have nothing in common with the balance of AZ-07 (high income white and Republican) and thus a ludicrous appendage even though in Phoenix (the southern tier of these precincts in Phoenix were already in now AZ-03 per the grid, and I just added the balance of them), and AZ-03 needed the precincts anyway, AZ-06 gets most of Gilbert except the two southern most precincts, and the balance of Mesa (except for a small slice at its NE corner which the grid assigned to AZ-05, and needs to say there), AZ-05 picks up the rest of Gila County, AZ-01 picks up the rest of Greenlee County, and loses its share of Santa Cruz to AZ-02, and all is right with the world.

  



A lagniappe is that I figured out an absolutely gorgeous gerry of Tuscon which also manages to max compactness.  Isn't that just special?  Tongue



Logged
Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
North Carolina Yankee
Moderators
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 54,123
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #94 on: August 22, 2011, 10:13:15 PM »

Lets see,
An AZ-05 that contains Scottsdale and a large chunk of Native American territory. It voted strongly Republican (58.3% for McCain and has a PVI of R+8). Congratulations, Torie, for putting him back in the US House of Representatives. Tongue

An instance where ignoring incumbents can produce worse results. Wink
Logged
BigSkyBob
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,531


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #95 on: August 22, 2011, 10:26:36 PM »

Lets see,
An AZ-05 that contains Scottsdale and a large chunk of Native American territory. It voted strongly Republican (58.3% for McCain and has a PVI of R+8). Congratulations, Torie, for putting him back in the US House of Representatives. Tongue

An instance where ignoring incumbents can produce worse results. Wink

Electing "him" would be a perfectly okay with me.
Logged
Torie
Moderators
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 46,057
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #96 on: August 22, 2011, 10:33:41 PM »
« Edited: August 22, 2011, 11:36:54 PM by Torie »

Lets see,
An AZ-05 that contains Scottsdale and a large chunk of Native American territory. It voted strongly Republican (58.3% for McCain and has a PVI of R+8). Congratulations, Torie, for putting him back in the US House of Representatives. Tongue

An instance where ignoring incumbents can produce worse results. Wink

Haha.  I get it. Keeping Hayworth out of sight and out of mind is not in the statute books from this legally driven map. But don't worry - be happy. The new AZ-05 has yes, about 15% of Scottsdale's precincts, and a few others that were in the old AZ-05 (see the old AZ-05 currently extant, but not for long), but about 80% of it is not in his CD.  His old CD was chopped up actually, pretty good (between 4 Phoenix area based CD's AZ-03, O7, 08, and O9).  OH, yes, the CD numbering system per the Commission's grid, totally changed. And Hayworth would probably have to run against the GOP incumbent who currently represents AZ-05 in any event, since the other three AZ CD's Phoenix area Pubbies represent are already spoken for, even if they have to move around a bit.   But AZ-03 is open, assuming the current incumbent in AZ-05 does not choose to run there (that southwest tail bit in the map below in tan).  And Hayworth represented about the same number of folks in that new CD, as in the new AZ-05 CD. So I guess Hayworth will have one open CD from which to choose. Tongue  



And below in the yellow is the portion of the new AZ-05 that was in the old AZ-05, about 140,000 folks.

Logged
they don't love you like i love you
BRTD
Atlas Prophet
*****
Posts: 112,714
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #97 on: August 22, 2011, 11:51:59 PM »

Remember that Arizona is a VRA preclearance state. The Republicans might make a fuss about what they want, but they don't have veto power over the map, and the DOJ does.
Logged
Torie
Moderators
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 46,057
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #98 on: August 23, 2011, 12:23:02 AM »

Remember that Arizona is a VRA preclearance state. The Republicans might make a fuss about what they want, but they don't have veto power over the map, and the DOJ does.

That is why AZ-02 needs to be 50% VAP Hispanic, and that is the major departure in my map from the Commission's grid map, which will be their starting point.
Logged
they don't love you like i love you
BRTD
Atlas Prophet
*****
Posts: 112,714
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #99 on: August 23, 2011, 12:24:24 AM »

Having played around a few times but not really completing any map, here's what I see as most logical from a non-partisan standpoint:

-Metro Phoenix interestingly should be left mostly unchanged, just population shifts for equality. AZ-02 is the biggest changed district, but that can be done just by removing the non-Maricopa parts. AZ-06 needs to similarly contract.
-AZ-08 can easily be made an immediate Tucscon-area only district, just with the most Hispanic precincts removed for AZ-07. Removing all of Cochise county likely makes it an Obama seat.
-AZ-01 ends up spanning the entire New Mexico border and takes in much of Pinal County. No longer the ugly split with the rezes by the way because:
-AZ-09 is basically what was severed from AZ-02 and a good chunk of AZ-01 in northwestern Arizona. Including all of Cococino County. Yavapai and Mohave probably make it a fairly safe GOP seat though.

And AZ-04 barely needs to be changed, the Hispanic VAP of AZ-07 can be easily boosted by just removing the non-Hispanic areas on the edges, and it needs to shed quite a bit of population.
Logged
Pages: 1 2 3 [4] 5 6 7 8 9 ... 21  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.076 seconds with 11 queries.