US House Redistricting: Arizona
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  US House Redistricting: Arizona
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Author Topic: US House Redistricting: Arizona  (Read 69027 times)
Sam Spade
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« Reply #150 on: August 25, 2011, 10:29:18 PM »

It would also be more helpful if you would explain just why you think my second map sucks, as opposed to just saying that it does. That is just so Sam Spadian. Whatever.

Not fair really.  Whenever I give an answer, I always give my reasoning, and if I don't, you can always ask, because I don't give answers unless I have some solid reason(s) why.

Maybe you speak of the times when I don't give an answer.
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Torie
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« Reply #151 on: August 25, 2011, 11:00:26 PM »

It would also be more helpful if you would explain just why you think my second map sucks, as opposed to just saying that it does. That is just so Sam Spadian. Whatever.

Not fair really.  Whenever I give an answer, I always give my reasoning, and if I don't, you can always ask, because I don't give answers unless I have some solid reason(s) why.

Maybe you speak of the times when I don't give an answer.

Fair enough Sam. I was just frustrated in being told my work product sucked, without being told why. It turned out that Lewis had some good points, although I don't think that put my efforts in the fail zone, but everyone has their own opinion.
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Torie
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« Reply #152 on: August 26, 2011, 09:16:56 AM »

From what I can tell from Vazdul's screen shots, the Commission in its latest map is making the Hispanic percentages in the 2 Hispanic CD's, trashing municipal lines to a substantial extent. It is as if they used Dave Bradlee's software to see where the Hispanics are concentrated, and drew the lines accordingly. That map looks like a Pubbie wet dream to me.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #153 on: August 26, 2011, 09:53:18 AM »

From what I can tell from Vazdul's screen shots, the Commission in its latest map is making the Hispanic percentages in the 2 Hispanic CD's, trashing municipal lines to a substantial extent. It is as if they used Dave Bradlee's software to see where the Hispanics are concentrated, and drew the lines accordingly. That map looks like a Pubbie wet dream to me.

You mean they are going well above and beyond the 50% threshold?
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jimrtex
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« Reply #154 on: August 26, 2011, 10:08:42 AM »

It's pretty interesting.

Arizona is underneath pre-clearance because of how Hispanics were tabulated.  At the time (1972) the Census Bureau did not have any separate tabulation for Hispanic's so depending on the state they included persons who had certain surnames, and in others they included persons born in Puerto Rico.  Nevada would have been covered if the same standard had been used as was used for Arizona, and Arizona would have been exempt if the Nevada standard had been used.

In addition, Arizona had provided for bilingual ballots in 1974, but the VRA of 1975 retroactively set a deadline of 1972.  It is similar to the California counties that are covered because military personal didn't vote (or didn't vote where they were based) and California had a literacy test that they no longer enforced.   In some cases, the military bases have been closed for over a decade.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #155 on: August 26, 2011, 10:25:54 AM »

In the previous map, the Native legislative district included the Navajo and Flagstaff. Seems that's not working anymore. (The population on the reservation actually fell.)
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Torie
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« Reply #156 on: August 26, 2011, 10:43:51 AM »
« Edited: August 26, 2011, 10:49:04 AM by Torie »

From what I can tell from Vazdul's screen shots, the Commission in its latest map is making the Hispanic percentages in the 2 Hispanic CD's, trashing municipal lines to a substantial extent. It is as if they used Dave Bradlee's software to see where the Hispanics are concentrated, and drew the lines accordingly. That map looks like a Pubbie wet dream to me.

You mean they are going well above and beyond the 50% threshold?

Yep.  I think the D of J guy who gave a lecture to them terrified them with retrogression and CVAP chat.   The D of J guy also claimed that the department has CVAP data (of course that is just some statistical construct that could fuel litigation forever). He gave AZ a pretty good spanking.

The VRA is really a nightmare. And I wish I knew what electing a candidate of your choice meant.  I mean do you need more Hispanics to elect an Hispanic if a third of them vote for an Anglo over an Hispanic?  Anyway, I think that means that the AZ-02 Hispanic VAP needs to be maxed because it is close to 55% Hispanic now, and the D of J guy said dropping by more than a precent or two was a problem, and the Hispanic incumbent last time almost went down the tubes, in part because of Hispanic "disloyalty" to him (AZ has a lot of evangelical Protestant Hispanics who have abandoned the barrio mentality). He was saved really by white liberals in Tuscon. It is a real Alice in Wonderland world out there. Surreal really.

In reality, in part it means finding Hispanics who are Democrats, which of course suits Pubbie purposes just fine.
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Torie
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« Reply #157 on: August 26, 2011, 10:46:09 AM »

In the previous map, the Native legislative district included the Navajo and Flagstaff. Seems that's not working anymore. (The population on the reservation actually fell.)

I wonder if the D of J will have a cow if the native American minority is diluted in a district.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #158 on: August 26, 2011, 11:05:11 AM »
« Edited: August 26, 2011, 11:16:34 AM by never met a fence I didn't want to burrow under »

Cut out Yuma entirely maybe - it has a lot of Hispanics that don't vote Democratic enough? That would make that Colorado River district idea more workable, and at least the district doesn't switch (EDIT: Wait, what was I trying to say with that last clause? Huh). (And it would be a safe R district, of course.)
Oh wait, that retrogresses Yuma Hispanics... damn. So... take the current two districts and drop, as exclusively as possible, white-plurality R-voting precincts? That would, of course, be good for Republicans on the whole... though you can't swallow up further Tucson Libs that way. - nor Tempe ones, might I add. It would lead to that split of Yuma County.

In the previous map, the Native legislative district included the Navajo and Flagstaff. Seems that's not working anymore. (The population on the reservation actually fell.)

I wonder if the D of J will have a cow if the native American minority is diluted in a district.
Arizona must draw a Native majority state lege district in the northeast. I don't think that's in the remotest piece of doubt. 'Specially given the decisions in SD last cycle.*
And preferably up the Native percentage as the last edition sometimes elected White Democrats. Adding the Apache probably does that. Though now the district won't be capable of electing White Dems but might be capable of electing White Pubs.

*as in, if push comes to shove, they'll have to break their own laws and draw two single-member seats for the state house one of which will be safe Navajo.
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Torie
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« Reply #159 on: August 26, 2011, 11:48:26 AM »
« Edited: August 26, 2011, 11:51:11 AM by Torie »

What we need are more lawsuits.  SCOTUS needs to rule again. Hispanics in places like AZ and much of Texas don't block vote, so the whole structure of the VRA as interpreted is absurd and needs to be revamped. Some of the D of J regs need to be dumped. The reality with Hispanics, and whites for that matter in most places these days, is that ideology trumps "race."  Same for blacks in the sense that they won't vote for a black Pubbie much, but for blacks there is an issue of whites tending to shy away from black Dems.

The lawsuits are going fast and furious in Texas, so presumably SCOTUS will have another chance this coming session to wrestle with the VRA versus Hispanics.
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Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)
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« Reply #160 on: August 26, 2011, 12:10:16 PM »

Here are some maps for individual districts that were proposed by certain groups during yesterday's meeting.

First, a map proposed by the Hispanic Coalition for Good Government:


A close up of their proposed Maricopa County Hispanic district:


A close up of the split in Pinal County:


A close up of Tucson:


And a close up of Yuma:


Next is a partial legislative map advocated by the city of Flagstaff:


And a map for the northeastern Congressional district advocated by the city of Flagstaff:


And statistics for the city of Flagstaff maps:
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #161 on: August 26, 2011, 12:25:34 PM »
« Edited: August 26, 2011, 12:46:18 PM by never met a fence I didn't want to burrow under »

The Hispanics' Phoenix seat is pretty much identical to what I drew two maps above, I think. EDIT: No it's not. I left Glendale alone and included Avondale. Still, southern, eastern and eastern half of northern perimeter should be identical.
Leaving some White Tucson Liberals for Grijalva, or what is that area at the northeast corner of the district's Tucson portion? The Pinal split and the inclusion of Gila River and Ak-Chin are as  they should be... which is by no means saying that that's where they'll indeed end up.
If Grijalva's 2010 showing is supposed to be such a legal concern, I guess the split of Yuma can be considered dried and dusted (it's not as if R members of the commission are going to go after him, either). Not something I'd do personally, though.
So Flagstaff's arguing for the first district to be left exactly as is plus Hopi minus Casas Grandes. Big surprise. -_- (It's what anybody effectively working from the old map and then looking at CoI would suggest. Which you aren't supposed to do, of course. And it helps Dems which is going to be a plus for Flagstaff line-drawers.) Lege map looks has some details that scream gerrymander to me. Some of those troublesome Mormons drawn out of the Navajo-Apache seat and dumped to where Flagstaff and Sedona can much more easily outvote them. Replaced, in the Navajo-Apache seat, with other Mormons 60% of whom are under age. Flip those two areas and the map makes sense.
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Torie
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« Reply #162 on: August 26, 2011, 12:31:56 PM »
« Edited: August 26, 2011, 01:11:04 PM by Torie »

Well, the City of Flagstaff is run by Dems.  THey turned the grid on its head.  Their gerry looks very nice though.  Smiley

The Hispanic CD in Tuscon Lewis doesn't give Giffords the time of day Lewis. She's F'ed with that map. The blue is Obamaland.  This sucks more of it than I ever dreamed of doing. Smiley  That is what happens when you chop Yuma and so forth; it pushes AZ-02 east. Go east young man!

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minionofmidas
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« Reply #163 on: August 26, 2011, 12:37:20 PM »
« Edited: August 26, 2011, 12:47:53 PM by never met a fence I didn't want to burrow under »

Well, the City of Flagstaff is run by Dems.  THey turned the grid on its head.  Their gerry looks very nice though.  Smiley
They just ignored it entirely and drew what they thought makes sense. It does make sense, too (after all, that's why it was drawn similarly last time), although the fact that what makes sense is good news for Ann Kirkpatrick cannot have escaped them.  (And of course, the northern two thirds of Mojave make just as much more sense as the remaining bit of Pinal... but are more Republican.)

Just noticed that Winslow is also in the lege seat they drew for themselves. Winslow is much the most marginal of the white towns in those two counties, and has a sizable Navajo presence.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #164 on: August 26, 2011, 01:10:25 PM »

Well, the City of Flagstaff is run by Dems.  THey turned the grid on its head.  Their gerry looks very nice though.  Smiley

The Hispanic CD in Tuscon Lewis doesn't give Giffords the time of day Lewis. She's F'ed with that map.
I've mapped it. The remainder of Pima is 50.4% McCain and just 48k short of a district - not enough to take in Sierra Vista. They did their homework.
Of course, that also means that the northern seat takes Cochise. Which adds up with the Colorado River district.
Heh, it's only fair. If R's can wetdream about 7-2, D's can wetdream about 4-4-1. Cause that's what all these Dem propositions amount to. Neither will get what he wants, of course.
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Torie
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« Reply #165 on: August 26, 2011, 01:15:26 PM »
« Edited: August 26, 2011, 01:18:54 PM by Torie »

Well, the City of Flagstaff is run by Dems.  THey turned the grid on its head.  Their gerry looks very nice though.  Smiley

The Hispanic CD in Tuscon Lewis doesn't give Giffords the time of day Lewis. She's F'ed with that map.
I've mapped it. The remainder of Pima is 50.4% McCain and just 48k short of a district - not enough to take in Sierra Vista. They did their homework.
Of course, that also means that the northern seat takes Cochise. Which adds up with the Colorado River district.
Heh, it's only fair. If R's can wetdream about 7-2, D's can wetdream about 4-4-1. Cause that's what all these Dem propositions amount to. Neither will get what he wants, of course.

Really?  I'd like to see the map of Pima that you did.  I have to catch a plane. Thanks.

The Flagstaff wet dream with its Colorado River CD does not take in Cochise by the way.  Did the Dems get their signals crossed?
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #166 on: August 26, 2011, 01:19:20 PM »



50.3 actually, I misspoke. Precincts and census tracts don't align around Littlefield.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #167 on: August 26, 2011, 01:22:41 PM »

The Flagstaff wet dream with its Colorado River CD does not take in Cochise by the way.  Did the Dems get their signals crossed?
Ah, the Flagstaff map as presented there doesn't align with the Colorado River idea at all - leaves far too few population by the Colorado, the remainder to come from the West Valley again presumably. I'm sure they wouldn't mind the "obvious" swap of Cochise for Prescott.
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Torie
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« Reply #168 on: August 26, 2011, 01:24:33 PM »
« Edited: August 26, 2011, 01:30:31 PM by Torie »

You need to work on the bit below Lewis. That should up the McCain percentage as to the balance of Pima by a percent or so maybe - maybe close to 2%. You've dumped about a dozen or more blue precincts into AZ-01, plus one weak McCain precinct. Your north south line there is one line of precincts too far to the west, and you ignored the bulge. Naughty!  

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Torie
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« Reply #169 on: August 26, 2011, 01:26:28 PM »

The Flagstaff wet dream with its Colorado River CD does not take in Cochise by the way.  Did the Dems get their signals crossed?
Ah, the Flagstaff map as presented there doesn't align with the Colorado River idea at all - leaves far too few population by the Colorado, the remainder to come from the West Valley again presumably. I'm sure they wouldn't mind the "obvious" swap of Cochise for Prescott.

I'm sure they wouldn't. Tongue
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krazen1211
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« Reply #170 on: August 26, 2011, 01:28:37 PM »

Well, the City of Flagstaff is run by Dems.  THey turned the grid on its head.  Their gerry looks very nice though.  Smiley

The Hispanic CD in Tuscon Lewis doesn't give Giffords the time of day Lewis. She's F'ed with that map.
I've mapped it. The remainder of Pima is 50.4% McCain and just 48k short of a district - not enough to take in Sierra Vista. They did their homework.
Of course, that also means that the northern seat takes Cochise. Which adds up with the Colorado River district.
Heh, it's only fair. If R's can wetdream about 7-2, D's can wetdream about 4-4-1. Cause that's what all these Dem propositions amount to. Neither will get what he wants, of course.

The grid map, though, splits Pima 3 ways: The Hispanic district, the 1st district that contains a bulk of Pima and Cochise, and the heavy Mormon GOP district based in Gilbert that descends from above.

Any yanking of Yuma County whites out of CD-7 (or its successor) seems like a good thing, even if they go into an already too safe exurban district (current CD-2).
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #171 on: August 26, 2011, 01:30:32 PM »

You need to work on the bit below Lewis. That should up the McCain percentage as to the balance of Pima by a percent or so maybe.


? I have that. Just south of it is where precinct and census tract boundaries sadly diverge. Can't make any major difference, though.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #172 on: August 26, 2011, 01:37:23 PM »

Well, the City of Flagstaff is run by Dems.  THey turned the grid on its head.  Their gerry looks very nice though.  Smiley
They just ignored it entirely and drew what they thought makes sense. It does make sense, too (after all, that's why it was drawn similarly last time), although the fact that what makes sense is good news for Ann Kirkpatrick cannot have escaped them.  (And of course, the northern two thirds of Mojave make just as much more sense as the remaining bit of Pinal... but are more Republican.)

Just noticed that Winslow is also in the lege seat they drew for themselves. Winslow is much the most marginal of the white towns in those two counties, and has a sizable Navajo presence.

Certainly in my view the great northern district makes some sense, at least to me. The lastest actual map posted by Vadzul does an even better job for the Rs though. The 80% Obama native precincts up north only add up to 100k and will be drowned out by the most GOP parts of Maricopa.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #173 on: August 26, 2011, 01:44:29 PM »

Well, the City of Flagstaff is run by Dems.  THey turned the grid on its head.  Their gerry looks very nice though.  Smiley

The Hispanic CD in Tuscon Lewis doesn't give Giffords the time of day Lewis. She's F'ed with that map. The blue is Obamaland.  This sucks more of it than I ever dreamed of doing. Smiley  That is what happens when you chop Yuma and so forth; it pushes AZ-02 east. Go east young man!



The Grijalva district (which is currently 57% Obama I believe) is going to push 61+% Obama at this rate with these changes.

The Pastor district is already well over 60% even if its not the awesome 66% pack.
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Torie
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« Reply #174 on: August 26, 2011, 02:13:35 PM »
« Edited: August 26, 2011, 02:17:39 PM by Torie »

Actually, it looks like the line is actually where I have the second set, which puts a lot more blue into AZ-01 if I'm right - even more than Lewis has. If so, it is a concerted effort by the Dems.  They can get plenty more Hispanics in Tuscon, but no, they want to go to Phoenix for them - and Pubbie Hispanics like those on the "wrong" side of the mountain in Phoenix next to Pinal County to boot. I guess their idea of "good government" is Dem government. Who knew?  Tongue



Anyway, this iteration won't see the light of day. It's absurd.
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