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Author Topic: US House Redistricting: Arizona  (Read 26599 times)
muon2
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« Reply #300 on: October 04, 2011, 09:21:51 pm »

Just calculated the 9th and it's 51.5-47.2 Obama. The dems got exactly what they wanted in Phoenix.

That's weak safe Dem. Smiley  That is supposed to be "competitive?"  LOL. They sure did get what they want!  I wonder if the Pubbies will get another referendum up. They must be as mad as hell.

That's why I tries to discern the competitiveness metric used for their plan. Since they have 2010 averaged in as well as registration numbers it comes out 50.3% R. That certainly looks competitive from the Commission's view. It's that 2008 isn't as Dem as it was in most states and 2010 is still a big GOP year in the average.
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« Reply #301 on: October 04, 2011, 09:25:18 pm »
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Arizona is our Washington...a trifecta state saddled with a crappy commission.
Well, yeah.

Washington is not decided... but it's pretty much decided that protecting all four Republicans will be the prime consideration.

(And yeah, Grijalva probably would have complained about the district I drew for him. Too little Tucson. Which would have knockon effects in the red district in Glendale probably. Still, there is no reason for a Dem gerry to concede four safe Republican districts in the state. If you're ready to draw competitive districts anyways.)

It's looking like WA Republicans will be getting a pretty great map, though...
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« Reply #302 on: October 04, 2011, 09:29:47 pm »
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Just calculated the 9th and it's 51.5-47.2 Obama. The dems got exactly what they wanted in Phoenix.

That's weak safe Dem. Smiley  That is supposed to be "competitive?"  LOL. They sure did get what they want!  I wonder if the Pubbies will get another referendum up. They must be as mad as hell.

That's why I tries to discern the competitiveness metric used for their plan. Since they have 2010 averaged in as well as registration numbers it comes out 50.3% R. That certainly looks competitive from the Commission's view. It's that 2008 isn't as Dem as it was in most states and 2010 is still a big GOP year in the average.

In my opinion, the Commission's partisan baseline is garbage - just garbage.
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« Reply #303 on: October 04, 2011, 09:30:49 pm »
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Just calculated the 9th and it's 51.5-47.2 Obama. The dems got exactly what they wanted in Phoenix.

That's weak safe Dem. Smiley  That is supposed to be "competitive?"  LOL. They sure did get what they want!  I wonder if the Pubbies will get another referendum up. They must be as mad as hell.

I wouldn't put the words safe in front of it, but certainly would say it is a lean dem swing district. About D+3.
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« Reply #304 on: October 04, 2011, 09:31:29 pm »
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Arizona is our Washington...a trifecta state saddled with a crappy commission.
Well, yeah.

Washington is not decided... but it's pretty much decided that protecting all four Republicans will be the prime consideration.

(And yeah, Grijalva probably would have complained about the district I drew for him. Too little Tucson. Which would have knockon effects in the red district in Glendale probably. Still, there is no reason for a Dem gerry to concede four safe Republican districts in the state. If you're ready to draw competitive districts anyways.)

It's looking like WA Republicans will be getting a pretty great map, though...

Don't Democrats get another seat though?
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Torie
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« Reply #305 on: October 04, 2011, 09:32:33 pm »
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Just calculated the 9th and it's 51.5-47.2 Obama. The dems got exactly what they wanted in Phoenix.

That's weak safe Dem. Smiley  That is supposed to be "competitive?"  LOL. They sure did get what they want!  I wonder if the Pubbies will get another referendum up. They must be as mad as hell.

I wouldn't put the words safe in front of it, but certainly would say it is a lean dem swing district. About D+3.

A tad over plus 4% per my metric, and I like my metric. The Commission's garbage metric was deliberate of course. I wonder if the hapless Pubbies called the Dems on it. Probably not. They were pathetic.
« Last Edit: October 04, 2011, 09:43:54 pm by Torie »Logged

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« Reply #306 on: October 04, 2011, 09:40:12 pm »
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I'm trying to figure out CD-1 right now. I will report back soon. Then we can decide how f'ed the pubbies were. But it's only relative. The f'in isn't so bad in these non partisan maps as in the really ugly gerrymanders out there.
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« Reply #307 on: October 04, 2011, 09:46:27 pm »
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Who is the Pubbie incumbent in AZ-09? If it is Quayle, it's gone. If Sweikert (?), he maybe has a 1 in 3 chance, maybe an even chance, of holding it, if the Pubs have a really good year, which they might. But it won't hold.
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« Reply #308 on: October 04, 2011, 09:49:35 pm »
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CD-1= 51.1-47.8 Mccain. Though they split so many precincts that I am not sure it is accurate. If anyone can get the official presidential numbers that would be awesome. From the looks of it, you got a lean Republican swing district here. Though not as Republican as the district in Phoenix is Democratic. Not a huge difference of course but it all adds up....And the Tucson district is basically dead even between Obama and Mccain, which give it a very, very slight dem lean. Giffords will win it, but not sure about others.
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« Reply #309 on: October 04, 2011, 09:50:35 pm »
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Arizona is our Washington...a trifecta state saddled with a crappy commission.
Well, yeah.

Washington is not decided... but it's pretty much decided that protecting all four Republicans will be the prime consideration.

(And yeah, Grijalva probably would have complained about the district I drew for him. Too little Tucson. Which would have knockon effects in the red district in Glendale probably. Still, there is no reason for a Dem gerry to concede four safe Republican districts in the state. If you're ready to draw competitive districts anyways.)

It's looking like WA Republicans will be getting a pretty great map, though...

Don't Democrats get another seat though?

We're currently 4-2-3 (D-R-Swing). We'll probably be 4-4-2 afterwards.
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« Reply #310 on: October 04, 2011, 09:58:06 pm »
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Arizona is our Washington...a trifecta state saddled with a crappy commission.
Well, yeah.

Washington is not decided... but it's pretty much decided that protecting all four Republicans will be the prime consideration.

(And yeah, Grijalva probably would have complained about the district I drew for him. Too little Tucson. Which would have knockon effects in the red district in Glendale probably. Still, there is no reason for a Dem gerry to concede four safe Republican districts in the state. If you're ready to draw competitive districts anyways.)

It's looking like WA Republicans will be getting a pretty great map, though...

Don't Democrats get another seat though?

With a trifecta I presume the GOP would be cut to 2 seats. At the minimum Reichert would be a goner.
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« Reply #311 on: October 04, 2011, 10:10:36 pm »
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Who is the Pubbie incumbent in AZ-09? If it is Quayle, it's gone. If Sweikert (?), he maybe has a 1 in 3 chance, maybe an even chance, of holding it, if the Pubs have a really good year, which they might. But it won't hold.

Quayle might live in the district. Schweikert obviously doesn't. Smiley
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« Reply #312 on: October 04, 2011, 10:30:58 pm »
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Arizona is our Washington...a trifecta state saddled with a crappy commission.
Well, yeah.

Washington is not decided... but it's pretty much decided that protecting all four Republicans will be the prime consideration.

(And yeah, Grijalva probably would have complained about the district I drew for him. Too little Tucson. Which would have knockon effects in the red district in Glendale probably. Still, there is no reason for a Dem gerry to concede four safe Republican districts in the state. If you're ready to draw competitive districts anyways.)

It's looking like WA Republicans will be getting a pretty great map, though...

Don't Democrats get another seat though?

With a trifecta I presume the GOP would be cut to 2 seats. At the minimum Reichert would be a goner.

That makes Washington the one state that the GOP will benefit from a commission.
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« Reply #313 on: October 04, 2011, 11:13:48 pm »
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CD-1= 51.1-47.8 Mccain. Though they split so many precincts that I am not sure it is accurate. If anyone can get the official presidential numbers that would be awesome. From the looks of it, you got a lean Republican swing district here. Though not as Republican as the district in Phoenix is Democratic. Not a huge difference of course but it all adds up....And the Tucson district is basically dead even between Obama and Mccain, which give it a very, very slight dem lean. Giffords will win it, but not sure about others.

About 1% Dem for AZ-01. Even is 52.15% McCain, 47.85 % Obama. Sure it is not an exact science, but that is my best estimate. I am not backing off it, absent a numerically based basis which I missed. Toss-up anyway, which the Pubbie should hold in 2012 if competent, and I assume that he is.
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« Reply #314 on: October 04, 2011, 11:20:27 pm »

Just calculated the 9th and it's 51.5-47.2 Obama. The dems got exactly what they wanted in Phoenix.

That's weak safe Dem. Smiley  That is supposed to be "competitive?"  LOL. They sure did get what they want!  I wonder if the Pubbies will get another referendum up. They must be as mad as hell.

That's why I tries to discern the competitiveness metric used for their plan. Since they have 2010 averaged in as well as registration numbers it comes out 50.3% R. That certainly looks competitive from the Commission's view. It's that 2008 isn't as Dem as it was in most states and 2010 is still a big GOP year in the average.

In my opinion, the Commission's partisan baseline is garbage - just garbage.

The Commission wanted a metric that was based on actual election results from recent elections. They won't take some election with an imputed shift. Here is the list of elections they could work with (2-way GOP% in parentheses):

2008 Pres (54.3)
2008 Corp Commish (47.6)
2010 AG (51.9)
2010 Gov (56.1)
2010 Mine Commish (57.1)
2010 SoS (58.2)
2010 US Senate (62.9)
2010 Corp Commish (61.0)
2011 Registration (53.3) not an election

What blend would you recommend?

In their presentation, voter registration had the best correlation to the legislative and congressional seats won of any one item on that list. Averaging registration with the 2008 average and 2010 average didn't change the correlation but did shift the partisan computation toward the GOP by 1.2%.

If current registration is the best measure, then each district overestimates the GOP by that same 1.2%. Thus CD-9 would become 51-49 for the Dems. CDs 1 and 2 would be both about 50.6-49.4 for the GOP.
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« Reply #315 on: October 04, 2011, 11:36:51 pm »
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CD-1= 51.1-47.8 Mccain. Though they split so many precincts that I am not sure it is accurate. If anyone can get the official presidential numbers that would be awesome. From the looks of it, you got a lean Republican swing district here. Though not as Republican as the district in Phoenix is Democratic. Not a huge difference of course but it all adds up....And the Tucson district is basically dead even between Obama and Mccain, which give it a very, very slight dem lean. Giffords will win it, but not sure about others.

About 1% Dem for AZ-01. Even is 52.15% McCain, 47.85 % Obama. Sure it is not an exact science, but that is my best estimate. I am not backing off it, absent a numerically based basis which I missed. Toss-up anyway, which the Pubbie should hold in 2012 if competent, and I assume that he is.

5 points Mccain is even...I don't think so. AZ is a swing state? Tongue

Mccain by 2 is my dead even point. CD-1 has a Republican lean.
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« Reply #316 on: October 05, 2011, 12:02:04 am »
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6% for favorite son less 3.7% for Obama margin is 52.3% McCain for even. I explained why I used 6%. The red rock country trended Dem in 2008 vis a vis the nation - except for AZ. So we disagree Sbane which is fine. You use your numbers, and I will use mine. Smiley
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« Reply #317 on: October 05, 2011, 11:38:24 am »
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The 4th district does have a logic to it, of course. Even if it's arguably insane troll logic. It includes all the areas that think they're sort-of-part-of-rural-Arizona-but-aren't-really (except those in Pinal and plus half of Yuma). And some outer suburbs. This way, it doesn't have to extend as deep into the Metro proper as it would have if it basically followed the old 2nd.

Of course, if that also makes an R vote sink and an open district (since Franks is in the 8th) that Dewar might even want to run to, I'm sure that's pure coincidence. [/whistles innocently]
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« Reply #318 on: October 05, 2011, 12:12:49 pm »
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Actually Schweikert lives in Fountain Hills which is barely in the district via an odd appendage. Hmmm...
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« Reply #319 on: October 05, 2011, 12:16:59 pm »
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Actually Schweikert lives in Fountain Hills.
Lol, alright. Wouldn't have thought of checking that.
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« Reply #320 on: October 05, 2011, 01:15:26 pm »
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Actually Schweikert lives in Fountain Hills which is barely in the district via an odd appendage. Hmmm...

Ah, my team has hope then!  Smiley
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« Reply #321 on: October 05, 2011, 01:18:08 pm »
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Actually Schweikert lives in Fountain Hills which is barely in the district via an odd appendage. Hmmm...

Ah, my team has hope then!  Smiley
An odd appendage to the fourth, not the ninth. (Fountain Hills is right west of Fort McDowell Reservation... though I'm not sure the boundary between the two is passable except possibly on foot.)

EDIT: Yes. Yes it is. They built a road at some point over the past fifteen years. Or upgraded one or whatever.
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« Reply #322 on: October 05, 2011, 01:34:50 pm »
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Actually Schweikert lives in Fountain Hills which is barely in the district via an odd appendage. Hmmm...

Ah, my team has hope then!  Smiley
An odd appendage to the fourth, not the ninth. (Fountain Hills is right west of Fort McDowell Reservation... though I'm not sure the boundary between the two is passable except possibly on foot.)

EDIT: Yes. Yes it is. They built a road at some point over the past fifteen years. Or upgraded one or whatever.

So AZ-09 is an open seat?  Of course, that is the best plan for the Dems, absent having the Quayle doll served up for them into which to stick pins. Tongue
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« Reply #323 on: October 05, 2011, 01:37:10 pm »
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Actually Schweikert lives in Fountain Hills which is barely in the district via an odd appendage. Hmmm...

Ah, my team has hope then!  Smiley
An odd appendage to the fourth, not the ninth. (Fountain Hills is right west of Fort McDowell Reservation... though I'm not sure the boundary between the two is passable except possibly on foot.)

EDIT: Yes. Yes it is. They built a road at some point over the past fifteen years. Or upgraded one or whatever.

So AZ-09 is an open seat?  Of course, that is the best plan for the Dems, absent having the Quayle doll served up for them into which to stick pins. Tongue
It'd still have been preferrable if the fourth had been open as well. Ideally Quayle gets the weaker of six and eight and Franks and Schweikert battle it out in the primary for the stronger. Of course that was always going to be a difficult map to draw. Wink
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« Reply #324 on: October 05, 2011, 01:47:58 pm »
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I'm reading that Schweikert isn't running in AZ-9, but in the new AZ-6 and that Quayle will also be running in that seat. The new seat will be wide open.
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