US House Redistricting: Arizona

[Torie]

My conclusion from reading how the process works, is that these maps are close to meaningless.

[Torie]

My conclusion from reading how the process works, is that these maps are close to meaningless.

Ok, so the idea is "let's do 5 outstate districts, three of them along the border, and then see where the chips fall."?

For purposes of the partisan complexion of the CD's, these  template grids can essentially disappear once the other four criteria are plugged in. So for purposes of the doing the Dem and Pubbie congressperson body count, these grids are essentially worthless.

[Torie]

Grid map



Krazen's map

[Torie]

AZ-07 was majority VAP Hispanic before, and was drawn in 2001 by the Commission that way overriding all other criteria to conform to the VRA, or what they thought was the VRA.  That is going to happen again. So AZ-07 will need to look like this; in fact it is less grotesque than its current boundaries.  So I think it is close to a done deal. There is next to no room for maneuverability here. So it is going to look like this - period. That is my point of view anyway.

So my suggestion is to just draw AZ-07 the way I did, and move on from there.

[Torie]

Actually, AZ-07 might as well take the rest of Santa Cruz County (only 5,000 folks there to suck up), so this version looks even better.

[Torie]

By the way, the only CD I drew is AZ-07. The rest are just the old CD's, erased in places.

Anyway, as you no doubt know, per the law,  you need to follow county lines and so forth unless there is a good non-partisan reason not to do so.  So Santa Cruz and Yuma Counties should be kept together, and Maricopa and any other county not named "Pima" not impinged.

Finally, all other things being equal, making more competitive districts rather than less is also in the law, after all the other criteria are met as best they can. So bear that in mind, when you are tempted to "cheat."  The Dems will catch you and point it out to the commission, and tank you.  Yes they will. In other words, only cheat if you are pretty confident you won't get caught because you have a quite plausible cover story, about some communities of interest beyond municipal lines or cross municipal lines BS or something.

If you want to pack AZ-07, try the below, which shoves some white heavily Obama precincts in to AZ-07 (presumably around the U of Arizona), and drops considerably more heavily Hispanic precincts to the east, next to an air force base I think, that are barely Obama. So the Hispanic percentage drops to a bare minimum (50.0-50.1% Hispanic VAP), but the Obama percentage goes up 1%.  But if that hurts the competitiveness of the next door CD, and bearing in mind it drops the Hispanic percentage a tad, you might not get away with it. It does make the CD slightly more compact, as it sheds some of its prong to the east, while reducing the size of that one little jut in from the north south towards downtown. That's your cover.

[Torie]

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Yes, those two native american precincts in Maricopa have a grand total of about 800 residents and less than 200 voters between them.  

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What does the grid do to these two cities? Does it split one or both of them, or neither?  Does one of them have to be split? I know nothing about Phoenix really.  I have never worked on it before.

Meanwhile, with the VRA having drawn AZ-07, AZ-08 then draws itself as well, going up in its McCain percentage from 53.0% of the two party vote to 55.0% (it will be 54% if you don't get away with the modest little gerry in Tuscon). And yes, I get the native American bit now, and thus the bite out of Graham along with the bite out of Maricopa which you mentioned.

[Torie]

After having eyeballed it more closely, I am not sure the grid splits either Mesa or Tempe, and that is the starting point - as a matter of law. The prior map is legally irrelevant, except to the extent it reveals the Commission's methodology 10 years ago vis a vis the grid map at that time. If one of the towns is going to be split, there needs to be a non partisan reason to do it. If the grid splits one of the towns, then the presumption is that it shall be split, unless there is a non partisan rebuttal to that.

[Torie]

By the way, the only CD I drew as AZ-07. The rest are just the old CD's, erased in places.

Anyway, as you no doubt know, per the law,  you need to follow county lines and so forth unless there is a good non-partisan reason not to do so.  So Santa Cruz and Yuma Counties should be kept together, and Maricopa and any other county not named "Pima" not impinged.

Except that Arizona's county lines are so strange as to leave, like, Yavapai and Cochise as the only counties where such good reasons do not exist?

Perhaps.  As Sam Spade is wont to say, we shall see.  "Compactness," inter alia, is a legal bullet point.

[Torie]

Yah, I didn't say that all other counties would be split. (And I might have added Yuma and La Paz, unless you're really desperate for that 50.1VAP Hispanic.)

Yes, desperate. It must be done - period.

And now the grid - more or less (the voting districts don't match).  The VRA more or less will get rid of two competitive CD's (and save Grijalva's career while probably ending Gifford's (to the extent it has not already ended)). After subtracting  4 GOP PVI points for the McCain bias (yes it is a full 4 points (and don't argue with me because I'm right!, so add 30 basis points net to Obama's percentages to get the baseline for PVI calculations), AZ-01 is  weak lean Dem, and AZ-02 is swing.  AZ-09 is a  strong lean GOP per the grid, but I suspect the Commission will do a clockwise rotation here to get AZ-09 to pick up the southern end of Scottsdale from AZ-07 (shoving up the Hispanic percentage in AZ-07 which is now right at about 50% Hispanic VAP as well as respecting municipal boundaries). That southern end of Scottsdale is about 55-45 Obama or so, and maybe a bit more. In exchange, AZ-09 will probably lose some heavily GOP precincts on its northwest side. That will probably shove AZ-09 down to  maybe a 2.5% GOP PVI, or a mid lean GOP seat.  Still that will make AZ-09 2 to 3 points more Pubbie than it is now. Stay tuned.

By the way, the CD numbering has been totally changed by the Commission, so forget whatever CD numbers you had in mind before when thinking about individual CD's. It's a whole new ball game.

So given the VRA, AZ-01 will be  a weak safe Pubbie seat (something over a 4% GOP PVI), or very close to it, AZ-02 and AZ-07 safe Dem, and the rest of the seats safe GOP.  So the Dems will have about 2.25 seats, and the GOP 6.75 seats as it were. That is my initial surmise. We shall see what happens when I play with it a bit more. AZ-03 is obviously going to change a lot, and it might influence the overall design here and there  potentially.

[Torie]

Maps used to be here, but have been revised some so are now below in the thread. However others quoted my old text so you can see them in those posts below before my later revision appears. I decided I don't like to clutter threads with zillions of my map revisions!

[Torie]

My split of Tempe just followed the grid. I had no intention of touching that grid split, unless there was a good reason to do so. As it happens, the split just makes the CD's look more compact. And some towns needed to be split to equalize population, and Tempe is it between AZ-07 and AZ-06. Each CD has only one municipal split between them, unless there is a damn good reason for more than one, and there was in a couple of instances. Discipline, discipline baby, is what it is all about.

I might note that I followed the grid for Maricopa, and adjusted it per the legal parameters, without really knowing as an initial matter what the partisan impact would be. Then I checked, as it is relevant actually for "communities of interest" issues, and then checked topography (I am somewhat familiar with it in AZ, to look for arterial connections and mountain barriers). It just happened that the lay of the land, the Commission's choice of the grid, and the VRA, worked for the Pubbies in AZ - big time.

Tuscon was another matter, but that in the end just fell together too - barely.

[Torie]

the northeast and northwest district looks like the 3rd and 4th districts of the 70s and 80s

Yes, that is why i suspect the grid map will be swapped for a Great Native North district like mine.

What is the legal reason for departing from the grid up north? And for Phoenix, where you have a radical change?  Also, the grey sea around the Phoenix island violates compactness, - and communities of interest. It is just a grab bag of rural and exurban areas. That is the rap you will face.

[Torie]

Except that Mojave County in the current map is not in the northern AZ CD. It would be interesting to know that the 2001 grid map looked like. And the Phoenix metro area has only a small share for both northern CD's - particularly AZ-04, but about two thirds of AZ-05 (at least) is also outside the Phoenix metro area. AZ-03 is a cross over CD. This map actually reduces Phoenix domination vis a vis your concept.

The Hopi in my map might be shoved into AZ-04 by the way. It can be done with this map a lot easier than it was last time.  That changes next to nothing really.

Addendum: Actually two thirds of AZ-05 is in Maricopa County. My bad. But consider AZ-04 your great northern CD. And per below, you can see that AZ-03 is a 50-50 proposition between Phoenix metro and the much more rural hinterlands.



And here are the old CD's. As you can see, only AZ-01 was really "free" from either Phoenix or Tucson domination. One CD remains that way, it just is now called AZ-04.  And rural AZ (sort of), gets another half CD from the new AZ-03.

[Torie]

You do understand that your split of the Navajo Nation along the grid line has a 0.1% chance of happening, do you Torie?

Perhaps Lewis, you should look at my map more closely. Why on earth would I do that to the Navajos?


Moving right along, AZ-05 is the land of the Mormons, and their lost tribe of Israel friends, the native Americans, to a quite substantial degree. And of course they should be all together (except for the Hopi dissidents who just don't play well with others).  

[Torie]

The map is done.  Yes, I know, it's brilliant. Thanks.  (Addendum: yes, I know,  it is even more brilliant with this 4th revision of my post after Lewis pointed out the Navajo Reservation split, and I kept working a bit more on municipal unification (getting rid of a tri-chop for Peoria for example), and compactness maximization, and communities of interest connecting.  

From the 2001 map, GOP picks up 2 seats in AZ (the new seat plus the Gifford's seat), plus makes a swing CD, AZ-09, move from very weak GOP lean (about a 2% GOP PVI) to weak  GOP safe (4.3% GOP PVI). The old northern CD, then labeled AZ-01, was a about a 4% GOP PVI (so on the cusp between "safe" and "lean"), and is now replaced with two safe northern CD's as well.

The commission never gets to its final (and secondary) parameter, after having maxed the others, to wit, "competitiveness." This map degrades it, but it meets all the paramount parameters I think - to a tee. AZ-07 by the way bounces up from the grid from around 50% Hispanic VAP, to 55.4% Hispanic VAP. In the 2001 map, it was around 60% Hispanic VAP. It needs to be juiced up from the grid - and it is. The Lord wants 50% plus Hispanic CVAP to the extent possible (it isn't with AZ-02, and it takes work to get up even to 50% VAP), and I am here to serve him.



The numbers are off because Arizona specializes in huge precincts in places, large numbers of which are over 4,000, and a fair number between 4,000 and 10,000, with a few even larger than that. They will have to be bifurcated.  (Addendum: the map was slightly revised to separate the Hopi from the Navajo, since the Commission will almost certainly do that, just like it did 10 years ago. when it really had to reach to do it.)



From the grid, AZ-09 picks up the southern end of Scottsdale per plan, and loses a southern tier of Phoenix precincts to AZ-07, AZ-03 gets all of Chandler, and picks up a bunch of precincts that were in AZ-07 at its southern end, but were on the wrong side of some impassible mountain (that big green precinct in AZ-07 at its now southern edge), plus have nothing in common with the balance of AZ-07 (high income white and Republican) and thus a ludicrous appendage even though in Phoenix (the southern tier of these precincts in Phoenix were already in now AZ-03 per the grid, and I just added the balance of them), and AZ-03 needed the precincts anyway, AZ-06 gets most of Gilbert except the two southern most precincts, and the balance of Mesa (except for a small slice at its NE corner which the grid assigned to AZ-05, and needs to say there), AZ-05 picks up the rest of Gila County, AZ-01 picks up the rest of Greenlee County, and loses its share of Santa Cruz to AZ-02, and all is right with the world.

  



A lagniappe is that I figured out an absolutely gorgeous gerry of Tuscon which also manages to max compactness.  Isn't that just special?  

[Torie]

Lets see,
An AZ-05 that contains Scottsdale and a large chunk of Native American territory. It voted strongly Republican (58.3% for McCain and has a PVI of R+8). Congratulations, Torie, for putting him back in the US House of Representatives.

An instance where ignoring incumbents can produce worse results.

Haha.  I get it. Keeping Hayworth out of sight and out of mind is not in the statute books from this legally driven map. But don't worry - be happy. The new AZ-05 has yes, about 15% of Scottsdale's precincts, and a few others that were in the old AZ-05 (see the old AZ-05 currently extant, but not for long), but about 80% of it is not in his CD.  His old CD was chopped up actually, pretty good (between 4 Phoenix area based CD's AZ-03, O7, 08, and O9).  OH, yes, the CD numbering system per the Commission's grid, totally changed. And Hayworth would probably have to run against the GOP incumbent who currently represents AZ-05 in any event, since the other three AZ CD's Phoenix area Pubbies represent are already spoken for, even if they have to move around a bit.   But AZ-03 is open, assuming the current incumbent in AZ-05 does not choose to run there (that southwest tail bit in the map below in tan).  And Hayworth represented about the same number of folks in that new CD, as in the new AZ-05 CD. So I guess Hayworth will have one open CD from which to choose.  



And below in the yellow is the portion of the new AZ-05 that was in the old AZ-05, about 140,000 folks.

[Torie]

Remember that Arizona is a VRA preclearance state. The Republicans might make a fuss about what they want, but they don't have veto power over the map, and the DOJ does.

That is why AZ-02 needs to be 50% VAP Hispanic, and that is the major departure in my map from the Commission's grid map, which will be their starting point.

[Torie]

Nope, you lose an Hispanic majority CD BRTD. That is very probably illegal. A Tucson area CD only falls way short of of majority Hispanic. You need to take in Yuma. If you go from Tucson to Phoenix to grab Hispanics there, you really blow the grid away, and dilute AZ-07 too much to boot. Sorry. And the map would look like hell.

10 years ago the Commission went out of its way to create two majority Hispanic CD's, departing from the grid, with far more contortions than are necessary this time per my map.

But draw your own map, bearing in mind the grid and the detailed  legal constraints in the state law, plus the VRA, and we shall see what you produce.   Oh, and creating competitive districts is only a factor after all of the other constraints have been met as best they can, so it only comes into play all other things being relatively equal.

This is a legal exercise and nothing but BRTD. Good luck!  

[Torie]

IC.. You smashed the grid, have Hispanics from Yuma, Phoenix and Tucson all in one, ignore county lines, and increases erosity, in exchange from moving one CD from reasonably safe Pubbie to reasonably safe Dem, thereby not increasing competitiveness.

OK.  I guess that's it.

[Torie]

Your tan district is also highly unlikely. You'll probably have to cut the entire western portion out.

Next to nobody lives in the western bit of AZ-03 (the tan CD), and the nearest population areas are in Phoenix, and it's in Maricopa County to boot.  It could however be appended to AZ-04 or AZ-02.  

BRTD, you are working from the existing map, rather than from the grid, and the purpose of the grid is to avoid being influenced by the existing map. Changes from the grid need need to be justified by the VRA, communities of interest and municipal and county lines, and compactness. If all of those are met well, then if all things are equal you think about competitiveness. Changes from the grid without good reason are illegal. Last time the Commission hewed to the grid quite well, except that it needed old AZ-07 to be 50% Hispanic, so at that time it needed to go to both Yuma and Phoenix and Tuscon to do it. No more. Now it needs to go only to Yuma.

You might try moving what is now AZ-02 into Phoenix rather than Yuma, but you will find you have population problems getting there. Casa Grande has a lot of people. It is a lot easier to just drop it from AZ-02 in favor of Yuma (and there are no people between Yuma and AZ-02 per the grid, so it is easier to pick them up without picking up extraneous Anglos). Your game BRTD is to try to minimize AZ-02's take of Hispanics in Tuscon to buttress up the Gifford's CD into close to a non competitive Dem CD by getting Hispanics into AZ-02 from both from Phoenix and Yuma, in exchange for Tuscon Hispanics that are dumped into AZ-01.  I understand that game. It is just not going to work this time I don't think.

Here is the grid map again:



And here is my map:

[Torie]

Yesterday the commission discussed a map where they modified the second grid option to conform to the VRA. It looked similar to Torie's map except:

• They didn't do the Hopi-Navajo gerrymander, and
• The tan district on Torie's map went further southeast. It looked more like a Pinal-Tucson district.

It's important to note that it's still an early draft, and conforms only to the VRA and the requirements met by the grid map.

Interesting. I can't find the new map.  IF AZ-03 took the rest of Pinal and some of Pima near Tuscon, chewing in to AZ-01 in my map, what territory did AZ-01 take to replace it?  AZ-02 must have picked up more than just Yuma County if AZ-01 has to take more of Pima.

Was the revised map something like this?  This drops the McCain percentage in AZ-01 down from 54.9% McCain to 54.1% McCain -  a 4.5% GOP PVI from the adjusted baseline.  BRTD would still not be happy!  He wants more - much more.



Or this, 54% McCain for AZ-01, and a 4.4% GOP PVI (not bad maps really at all come to think of it, even though it departs a bit more from the grid, but not by much):

[Torie]

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Correct. Well stated. And that is exactly what I tried to do. In the end, I played no partisan games at all really.  And picking up that bit of Maricopa and putting it into AZ-02, and having AZ-03 dip down into Pima a bit, does up the Hispanic percentage in AZ-02 by about .5%, allowing some more flexibility in restoring order and some communities of interest and compactness in Tuscon while keep AZ-02 up at 50%+ Hispanic VAP.



And here is a cut at Tuscon that I like even better, since it stays in Tuscon, and is rectangular. 54.2% McCain for AZ-01, 50.2% Hispanic VAP for AZ-02.

[Torie]

Given the direction the Commission is going, per Vazdul's helpful intelligence reports as to the current doings of the Commission,  and what are to me going to be rather obvious further adjustments around the edges, I suspect it will be very hard to argue with the map below in the end. It just meets so well all the legal criteria. Some of the big precincts will need to be chopped to equalize population, and I took that into account, so the equalization will be just between two CD's in each instance.

AZ-02 is down again to 50% Hispanic VAP, but that meets the VRA, and it maxes compactness.  Plus ca change, plus ca meme chose, as to how it all affects the partisan balance. The final tweaks do make AZ-09 only a weak safe Pubbie CD to boot, along with AZ-01, so that is the Dem's consolation card. AZ-03 is hardly uber safe for the Pubbies either. If they run a nutter, he or she will probably lose. The luckiest man in the world is the guy who currently represents northern AZ (formerly AZ-01 and now AZ-04), and beat a Dem incumbent in 2010.  Now he can just dial it in.

[Torie]

No. Not if he gets any sort of primary challenge. You drew his district out from under his feet.

Gosar lives in Flagstaff.  I don't see him getting a challenge, unless somebody from the Mohave County area which was appended challenges him, or from the Phoenix metro area into which the CD pushed, the latter of which has about 150,000 residents in the district.