Bottom line, Republicans just aren't going to get as many safe seats as they like, not with any makeup of the commission. As it stands, there are only 2 D+ PVI districts on the map, which is hardly a Democratic gerrymander. No party owns the congressional seats, so it's a bit ridiculous for the governor to claim the map is "thievery". Sometimes you just have to get over it, that's what Democrats in many states have to do.
They don't have to get over it when they have the power to boot the commission.
Meaning the members or the whole thing? I don't think a proposition to overturn fair redistricting will be overturned. It just won't. Maybe if they played it more safe and only had a proposition to overturn the current map. I don't even know how that would work though.
There seems to be some chatter that the legislature can remove the members by legislation. Yes, I know, it seems odd. As I say, the whole thing is a cf. Really, the courts should just draw the map at this point, but that isn't in the cards either I don't think, unless somehow the Commission can be made totally dysfunctional.
A two-third majority can remove the commissioners, but that can only be seriously used against Mathis. If either of the Democrats is removed the Democratic legislative leaders can just reappoint them ad nasuem. And no replacement for Mathis can be appointed without the consent of the Democrats. So the map will either be:
1. Drawn by this commission
2. Drawn By the State Supreme Court
3. Drawn by the 9th Circuit
Both 2. and 3. might well just impose the commission map as an interim solution if the issue looks like a partisan temper tantrum, in which case the legislature might try a mid-decade redraw and end up in court again.
They could go to referendum, but I am not sure there will be much stomach among low-info voters for it.
