US House Redistricting: Arizona (user search)
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  US House Redistricting: Arizona (search mode)
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Author Topic: US House Redistricting: Arizona  (Read 70136 times)
phk
phknrocket1k
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Political Matrix
E: 1.42, S: -1.22
« on: October 02, 2011, 04:12:40 PM »
« edited: October 02, 2011, 04:14:25 PM by phk »
Interesting.. exploring the favorite son effect from 1996 to 2008. Favorite son effects are heavily dependent upon the individual in question and probably exhibit diminishing marginal returns.  The effect would be stronger if you haven't had a President from the state as well.

Gore's went from 47% to 42% from 2000 to 2004 with a 3% GOP swing is only a 2% effect.

Clinton, had Arkansas going for him with 53%, Dole 36%. In 2000 it was Bush 51% and Gore just shy of 46%. So like a 14% effect.

Texas went from R+5 in 1996 to R+21 in 2000, Bush had a 8% effect. As Bush did not run in 2008 we had Texas going from R+24 to R+12, with a D+10 movement so a 2% effect?
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phk
phknrocket1k
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,906


Political Matrix
E: 1.42, S: -1.22
« Reply #1 on: October 02, 2011, 06:43:33 PM »
Forgot about Kerry.

Mass in 2000 was D+27.3, in 2004 it was D+25.16. National R swing of +3, so a 1 point effect?
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