Victoria, Australia, by-elections in the life of the 57th Parliament (2010-2014)

[Smid]

I may not be quite so wrong

You're quite good at this, aren't you

Sorry, I didn't mean to come across like that. It's just it really did strike me during the week that groupthink in the media had hyped the Greens to the extent that a win for them wasn't just expected, it was more like it was a foregone conclusion. A Labor win was $3 on Centrebet the other day, which I thought was just ridiculous. That's why I posted on Friday that I thought Labor was talking down their chances so they could make a good news story of a close win. It was always about the preferences and it was the Sex Party that sealed the deal... They backed the Greens at the General, but Labor yesterday. Anyway, when early results had the Greens with a 9 point lead on primary vote, I said I looked like being wrong, so I didn't mean to sound smug or gloating when I said I got it right.

[RogueBeaver]

So Labor wins in name only.

[Smid]

Labor evidently ran a good postal vote campaign... Ordinary votes were very close, prepoll votes were won by the Greens by about a hundred, but Labor got an extra 550 votes compared to the Greens from postal ballots counted last night.

[Secretary Polnut]

And it's official, Labor claims victory...

I honestly thought the Greens would have a hard time winning this...

[Sibboleth]

Sorry, I didn't mean to come across like that.

i

Evidently I didn't either as it was intended as a compliment!

[Smid]

Sorry, I didn't mean to come across like that.

i

Evidently I didn't either as it was intended as a compliment!

Ah, good, I was worried I was sounding like I was boasting, and I can't stand people who always say how good they are, especially after the fact, and am always worried that I sound like one of them.

That said, I was proud of my efforts in the last federal election, the subsequent negotiations with the independents after (the Tony Windsor "one of us might need to back down and support the decision of the other two" comment gave it away, I thought), that the minority government would not fall early*, but my best was probably Pauline Hanson's Senate bid in 2001 - I think I was the first I knew that said she wouldn't get it (I thought obvious, because they wouldn't get a quota in their own right and everyone was preferencing against her).

EDIT:*obviously barring a by-election that changes the numbers in the Parliament.

[Smid]

[So the Heroes Fall]

So is there a separation into actual precincts, or are the boots just spread out and it's legal to vote at any one as long as you live in the district, thus making actual "precinct results" impossible?

[Smid]

or are the boots just spread out and it's legal to vote at any one as long as you live in the district, thus making actual "precinct results" impossible?

^^^this. The dots are all the same size, but the number of votes cast at them vary, making it somewhat harder to compare. The map is more indicative of roughly where support for the parties was located within the electorate, rather than a particularly scientific approach, like when precinct maps in the US and poll maps in Canada are posted).

At the by-election, the smallest booth was Docklands (pink dot, previously dark red, South-West of the electorate, on the water, where the jutting in bits allow you to correctly assume that it used to be a wharf - now you'd call it a condo development and marina)... Docklands had 786 formal ballots cast.

The largest booth at the by-election was Kensington (the Westernmost booth, went from red to pale green) with 2,428 formal ballots cast.

Larger than any booth were postal votes, which could have come from any part of the electorate with 3,477 formal votes (58.44% Labor) and larger still was pre-poll, again, people could have come from any part of the electorate to vote there (3,832 - 51.3% Green).

Reading the small print on the image (you may want to view it in the gallery), I have the booth locations for the general election, but not the by-election... I've had to assume that they haven't moved, except for North Melbourne Central, which is abolished, and South Kensington, which is created - probably roughly the same area, just slightly further to the West, although it's difficult to analyse the impact on neighbouring booths - whether Kensington lost some voters to South Kensington, and whether North Melbourne and North Melbourne East gained voters from North Melbourne Central - due to the substantially lower turnout).

[Smid]

Tim Holding announced his retirement on Friday - yesterday's newspaper suggested that Martin Pakula may make the switch from Upper House to Lower House.

[Smid]

The Lyndhurst by-election date has been set for 27 April. Nominations close 28 March.

Edit: Antony Green has a write-up

[Smid]

Martin Pakula won Labor preselection on Friday. There was an article in the paper on Thursday about an internal battle going on about it (basically, the Opposition Leader is apparently threatened by him entering the Lower House and was encouraging someone else to challenge, despite a deal that seat "belonged" to Pakula's faction).

[Smid]

Lyndhurst by-election was held on Saturday. Labor held onto the seat with a significant primary vote swing against.

[Reagan and Thatcher's Long Lost Son]

The results are now final, Labor won 57-43 on 2PP terms, Family First came second.