Inauguration Day 2061
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Author Topic: Inauguration Day 2061  (Read 2782 times)
Middle-aged Europe
Old Europe
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« on: January 20, 2011, 05:09:52 AM »

On January 20, 2061 a newly (re?-)elected U.S. president will be inaugurated.

Please give an estimate of likelihood (0% to 100%) that this president is gonna be
1. a woman
2. Hispanic
3. African American
4. Asian American
5. member of a religion other than Christianity
6. openly agnostic/atheist
7. openly homosexual/bisexual
8. transsexual
9. not married
10. without children
11. younger than 40 years
12. older than 70 years
13. a naturalized U.S. citizen
14. someone who has previously travelled to Earth's orbit
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #1 on: January 20, 2011, 07:00:28 AM »

That's just a guess, but :

1. a woman 30%
2. Hispanic 10%
3. African American 10%
4. Asian American 5%
5. member of a religion other than Christianity 2%
6. openly agnostic/atheist 1%
7. openly homosexual/bisexual 10%
8. transsexual 1%
9. not married 15%
10. without children 30%
11. younger than 40 years 5%
12. older than 70 years 15%
13. a naturalized U.S. citizen 1%
14. someone who has previously travelled to Earth's orbit 2%
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Person Man
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« Reply #2 on: January 20, 2011, 10:14:30 AM »
« Edited: January 20, 2011, 10:20:11 AM by Brother Bilo »

On January 20, 2061 a newly (re?-)elected U.S. president will be inaugurated.

Please give an estimate of likelihood (0% to 100%) that this president is gonna be
1. a woman 50/50
2. Hispanic No less likely than per capita
3. African AmericanNo less likely than per capita
4. Asian American No less likely than per capita
5. member of a religion other than Christianity No less likely than per capita
6. openly agnostic/atheist Unlikely, but not out of the question.
7. openly homosexual/bisexual No less likely than per capita.
8. transsexual No less likely than per capita.
9. not married At this point, unlikely....but its happened in the past and if society continues to transform due to low birth and death rates, its no less likely than a married person.
10. without children No less likely than someone with. Birthrates are falling.
11. younger than 40 years Unlikely, but possible. Deathrates and Birthrates will be very low. The natural lifespan might even start to chamge half way to 2061.
12. older than 70 years No less likely than anyone under 70. Death rates are falling
13. a naturalized U.S. citizen   very unlikely, almost impossible.
14. someone who has previously travelled to Earth's orbit Thanks to Obama's privatization of near-Earth space exploration and development, more likely than not; unless there is some serious national and global decline, there should be some way for at least a modestly wealthy "middle-class" millionaire (someone who can pay the cost of a new Chevy or Ford on a vacation) to get to sub-orbital space.
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The Economist
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« Reply #3 on: January 20, 2011, 10:42:14 PM »

Please give an estimate of likelihood (0% to 100%) that this president is gonna be

1. a woman - 90%
2. Hispanic - 80%
3. African American - 30%
4. Asian American - 20%
5. member of a religion other than Christianity - 40%
6. openly agnostic/atheist - 10%
7. openly homosexual/bisexual - 20%
8. transsexual - 5%
9. not married - 30%
10. without children - 60%
11. younger than 40 years - 70%
12. older than 70 years - 40%
13. a naturalized U.S. citizen - 5%
14. someone who has previously travelled to Earth's orbit - 1%
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #4 on: January 22, 2011, 10:26:14 AM »

1. a woman - 90%
2. Hispanic - 80%
10. without children - 60%
11. younger than 40 years - 70%

LOL no.
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Thomas D
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« Reply #5 on: January 22, 2011, 10:33:58 AM »

1. a woman-55%
2. Hispanic-33%
3. African American-20%
4. Asian American-15%
5. member of a religion other than Christianity-35%
6. openly agnostic/atheist-15%
7. openly homosexual/bisexual-25%
8. transsexual-3%
9. not married-35%
10. without children-30%
11. younger than 40 years-1%
12. older than 70 years-15%
13. a naturalized U.S. citizen-20%
14. someone who has previously travelled to Earth's orbit-5%
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Stranger in a strange land
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« Reply #6 on: January 22, 2011, 02:06:09 PM »

1. a woman - 40%
2. Hispanic - 20%
3. African American - 10%
4. Asian American - 10%: the nation is probably ready for an Asian president now, but a shortage of viable candidates means that we'll probably have to wait a while
5. member of a religion other than Christianity - 15%: Christianity probably won't be as dominant as it is now
6. openly agnostic/atheist: 3%: Atheism and agnosticism will be less stigmatized than they are now, but there will still be bad feelings towards atheists
7. openly homosexual/bisexual - 2%: the nation will probably be ready for a gay president around 2040 or so, but lack of viable candidates will mean it will be much longer until we have an openly gay president
8. transsexual - 0%: this is one prejudice I don't see going away
9. not married - 3%
10. without children - 5%
11. younger than 40 years - 1%
12. older than 70 years - 10%
13. a naturalized U.S. citizen - 0.5%
14. someone who has previously travelled to Earth's orbit - 20%: space tourism is primed to take off, and it will be feasible for most middle class people well before 2061
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Mr. Taft Republican
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« Reply #7 on: January 22, 2011, 08:16:22 PM »

1. a woman 50%
2. Hispanic 70%
3. African American 50%
4. Asian American 50%
5. member of a religion other than Christianity 5% (Some things never change)
6. openly agnostic/atheist 49%
7. openly homosexual/bisexual 40%
8. transsexual 0%
9. not married 5%
10. without children 10%
11. younger than 40 years 20%
12. older than 70 years 10%
13. a naturalized U.S. citizen 0%
14. someone who has previously travelled to Earth's orbit 75%
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Person Man
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« Reply #8 on: January 22, 2011, 08:21:42 PM »

1. a woman 50%
2. Hispanic 70%
3. African American 50%
4. Asian American 50%
5. member of a religion other than Christianity 5% (Some things never change)
6. openly agnostic/atheist 49%
7. openly homosexual/bisexual 40%
8. transsexual 0%
9. not married 5%
10. without children 10%
11. younger than 40 years 20%
12. older than 70 years 10%
13. a naturalized U.S. citizen 0%
14. someone who has previously travelled to Earth's orbit 75%


I'll go with that.
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Dgov
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« Reply #9 on: January 22, 2011, 09:05:37 PM »

Something close to the National percentage for each of those options.  Probably a little lower than that for each of them (as politics is still likely to be a White-Christian-Male heavy field in 2061).
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #10 on: January 22, 2011, 09:53:35 PM »

1. a woman 40%, not because of any prejudice, I think more men than women will run for public office
2. Hispanic 30%, by now, Mexico will have stabilized and immigration will have declined, making the stigma against hispanics less
3. African American 10%, more or less
4. Asian American 5%, simply because there aren't that many Asian Americans
5. member of a religion other than Christianity 25%, Christianity is loosing influence, particularly among college educated people who will be more likely to run for office
6. openly agnostic/atheist 15%, an atheist or agnostic probably would have been elected, just not an open one
7. openly homosexual/bisexual 5%
8. transsexual 0%
9. not married 30%, marriage rates are going down and divorce rates are pretty high
10. without children 20%
11. younger than 40 years 15%
12. older than 70 years 20%
13. a naturalized U.S. citizen isn't that unconstitutional? 0%
14. someone who has previously travelled to Earth's orbit 75%
 
 

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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #11 on: January 23, 2011, 06:32:48 AM »

You guys are pretty optimistic IMO. Social trends take a lot of time to emerge, even 50 years wouldn't be enough for some things.
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The Economist
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« Reply #12 on: January 25, 2011, 12:09:26 AM »

1. a woman - 90%
2. Hispanic - 80%
10. without children - 60%
11. younger than 40 years - 70%

LOL no.

I'm curious, may I ask why you think this is unlikely?
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #13 on: January 25, 2011, 12:14:38 AM »

1. a woman - 90%
2. Hispanic - 80%
10. without children - 60%
11. younger than 40 years - 70%

LOL no.

I'm curious, may I ask why you think this is unlikely?
It implies that there's a high chance we will have a hispanic female president under the age of 40 with no children, which IMO, is highly unlikely.
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The Economist
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« Reply #14 on: January 25, 2011, 12:17:16 AM »

Ah, sorry, I meant each category by itself, rather as taken as a whole ... sorry. My rankings would be different if that were the criteria.
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Person Man
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« Reply #15 on: January 25, 2011, 09:09:18 AM »

You guys all know that 2, 3, and 4 have to add up to at most 100%, right?

Well, it could very well add up to past 100%. What about a gay hispanic woman who went on space vacation (or at least a Virgin Galatic) in 2049?
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izixs
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« Reply #16 on: January 28, 2011, 07:05:48 AM »

1. a woman - 53%
2. Hispanic -28%
3. African American - 18%
4. Asian American -5% (unless the purchase of Japan goes smoothly...)
5. member of a religion other than Christianity - 40%
6. openly agnostic/atheist - 16%
7. openly homosexual/bisexual - 17%
8. transsexual - >1%
9. not married - 36%
10. without children -49 %
11. younger than 40 years -21%
12. older than 70 years - 38%
13. a naturalized U.S. citizen - 0% ... unless you count absorbing Canada or something as leading to naturalization instead of birth citizenship despite being born in what is now US territory... then maybe 10%
14. someone who has previously travelled to Earth's orbit - 35%

15. Has some sort of bio or cybernetic augmentation - 15%
16. Has served in the military - 15%
17. Has served in some sort of World Assembly - 20%
18. Was born off planet - 2%
19. Understands Quantum Physics at the 2011 PhD level - 3%
20. Endorses military action against the rouge state of Denmark and their Swiss allies - 2%
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They put it to a vote and they just kept lying
20RP12
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« Reply #17 on: January 29, 2011, 09:59:00 AM »

1. a woman - 40%
2. Hispanic - 25%
3. African American - 45%
4. Asian American - 10%
5. member of a religion other than Christianity - 90%
6. openly agnostic/atheist - 60%
7. openly homosexual/bisexual - 45%
8. transsexual - 0%
9. not married - 15%
10. without children - 10%
11. younger than 40 years - 60%
12. older than 70 years - 10%
13. a naturalized U.S. citizen - 5%
14. someone who has previously travelled to Earth's orbit - 0%
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Penelope
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« Reply #18 on: January 29, 2011, 01:52:20 PM »

1. a woman (45%)
2. Hispanic (30%)
3. African American (25%)
4. Asian American (15%)
5. member of a religion other than Christianity (30%)
6. openly agnostic/atheist (50%)
7. openly homosexual/bisexual (50%)
8. transsexual (1%)
9. not married (40%)
10. without children (5%)
11. younger than 40 years (5%)
12. older than 70 years (20%)
13. a naturalized U.S. citizen (35%)
14. someone who has previously travelled to Earth's orbit (10%)
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #19 on: January 31, 2011, 10:42:57 PM »

1. a woman--35%
2. Hispanic--15%
3. African American--17%
4. Asian American--8%
5. member of a religion other than Christianity (not including atheist/agnostic)--2%
6. openly agnostic/atheist--40%
7. openly homosexual/bisexual--12%
8. transsexual--<1%
9. not married--30%
10. without children--33%
11. younger than 40 years--20%
12. older than 70 years--50%
13. a naturalized U.S. citizen--1%
14. someone who has previously travelled to Earth's orbit--<1%
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Stranger in a strange land
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« Reply #20 on: February 01, 2011, 12:45:15 AM »

Ah, sorry, I meant each category by itself, rather as taken as a whole ... sorry. My rankings would be different if that were the criteria.

.9*.8*.6*.7 = .3024 = 30.24%, which is still too high. Consider that:
- there have been no female presidents
- there have been no Hispanic presidents
- there have been no presidents under 40
- the last president with no children was James Buchanan
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #21 on: February 02, 2011, 02:48:10 PM »

- the last president with no children was James Buchanan
Ironically, this was because he was also probably gay.
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Its Evolution Baby
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« Reply #22 on: February 13, 2011, 11:26:13 PM »

1. a woman - 60%
2. Hispanic - 30%
3. African American - 20%
4. Asian American - 5%
5. member of a religion other than Christianity - 100%
6. openly agnostic/atheist - 70%
7. openly homosexual/bisexual - 60%
8. transsexual - 0%
9. not married - 30%
10. without children - 40%
11. younger than 40 years - 0%
12. older than 70 years - 0%
13. a naturalized U.S. citizen - 0%
14. someone who has previously travelled to Earth's orbit - 0%
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NHI
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« Reply #23 on: February 19, 2011, 08:39:27 PM »

1. a woman - 50%
2. Hispanic - 30%
3. African American - 20%
4. Asian American - 10%
5. member of a religion other than Christianity - 60%
6. openly agnostic/atheist - 10%
7. openly homosexual/bisexual - 20%
8. transsexual - 0%
9. not married - 5%
10. without children - 10%
11. younger than 40 years - 60%
12. older than 70 years - 5%
13. a naturalized U.S. citizen - 2%
14. someone who has previously travelled to Earth's orbit - 0%
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