Double standard about exit polls

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Exit polls don't match results in the US - who cares.

Exit polls don't match results in the Ukraine - the election was stolen!

http://www.cnn.com/2004/WORLD/europe/11/23/ukraine/index.html

[Jake]

Yeah, what he said.

[kelpie]

US = an established democracy.

Ukraine = an emergent democracy.

See how they're not the same?  No?  Look closer.  Still no?

jfern, you're a cartoon.

[So the Heroes Fall]

actually this does show conservative hypocrisy, since they used exit polls as the basis of their baseless claims that the recall of Hugo Chavez was rigged.

[ATFFL]

No one is claiming the exit polls show any indications of fraud.  The extremely suspect vote count is the sign of fraud.

So it seems some people like to see fraud where none exists (US) and none where it clearly does (Ukraine).

[Sam Spade]

Yet another reason to scrap exit polls entirely.

As my father once told me, "A little bit of knowledge is a very dangerous thing in the hands of the ignorant."

[KEmperor]

jfern, you're a cartoon.

Truer words have rarely been spoken.

[Gustaf]

Argh, I thought the trolls would go away after the election...how wrong was I not.

The Ukrainian election was RIGGED the American elections only subject to a lot of bipartisan fraud. Not the same thing.

[elcorazon]

I just think jfern is pointing out the irony.  I DO NOT believe the US election was fraudulent.  I DO believe the Ukraine election was fraudulent.  Yet, on this thread no one has adequately explained why that conclusion is rational, given that the only basis noted is exit polls, which were similarly inaccurate in the US, and in all likelihood (I'm making a possibly erroneous assumption here) the US exit polls were BETTER than the ones in the Ukraine.

I'd like someone without a bias (vorlon?) to explain to me how we know that the Ukraine election was fraudulent, yet also how we know the US election was legit - while the exit polls showed the other side winning in both cases.

[MODU]

I don't understand why some many people are hard-up on exit polls.  They aren't accurate and never have been.  The only poll figures on election day that are worth more than used toilet paper are the figures released from the states after their tallies are completed.

Give it up folks.  The more you beat this dead horse, the more of a horses ass you become.

[elcorazon]

I don't understand why some many people are hard-up on exit polls.  They aren't accurate and never have been.  The only poll figures on election day that are worth more than used toilet paper are the figures released from the states after their tallies are completed.

Give it up folks.  The more you beat this dead horse, the more of a horses ass you become.

a legit opinion.  So why the uproar over the Ukraine?  Where's the evidence that the election was fixed?

[MODU]

I don't understand why some many people are hard-up on exit polls.  They aren't accurate and never have been.  The only poll figures on election day that are worth more than used toilet paper are the figures released from the states after their tallies are completed.

Give it up folks.  The more you beat this dead horse, the more of a horses ass you become.

a legit opinion.  So why the uproar over the Ukraine?  Where's the evidence that the election was fixed?

Who knows.  It's not my country.  I don't have any say over how their polling and tracking is done, nor am I educated enough in their system to hazzard a guess.

[SirMuxALot]

But didn't the final exit poll show Bush winning by about 3% nationally?  And didn't the final exit poll show Bush winning Ohio by about 2%?

Was there every really any *final* exit poll (not the 2:00 PM ET incomplete data) that showed something far off from the actual result?

The only data I can find:

CNN
National - Bush 51.22%, Kerry 47.78%
Ohio - Bush 50.94%, Kerry 48.59%

...which is darn close to the actual result.

[ATFFL]

Only one person has cited the exit polls as the proof of fraud: jfern.

The EU and US cite the claims of Ukranian and international election observes that say they saw specific examples of fraud in favor of Yanukovych.

No government is citing exit polls as proof of fraud.

[elcorazon]

But didn't the final exit poll show Bush winning by about 3% nationally?  And didn't the final exit poll show Bush winning Ohio by about 2%?

Was there every really any *final* exit poll (not the 2:00 PM ET incomplete data) that showed something far off from the actual result?

The only data I can find:

CNN
National - Bush 51.22%, Kerry 47.78%
Ohio - Bush 50.94%, Kerry 48.59%

...which is darn close to the actual result.

where do you get your data?  I can't find it on the cnn site.  That's what I was hoping would eventually come out.  I wondered if the exit polls were "wrong" or just the early exit polls were premature.  I never really heard a legit answer and I never saw any "final" numbers on the exit polls.  paging vorlon.

[SirMuxALot]

where do you get your data?  I can't find it on the cnn site.

It's there, but you have to whip out the calculator to get the overall results.

National

Bush: 55% of male vote (46%) + 48% of female vote (54%)
(0.55 * 0.46) + (0.48 * 0.54) = 0.5122

Kerry: 44% of male vote (46%) + 51% of female vote (54%)
(0.44 * 0.46) + (0.51 * 0.54) = 0.4778


Ohio

Bush: 52% of male vote (47%) + 50% of female vote (53%)
(0.52 * 0.47) + (0.50 * 0.53) = 0.5094

Kerry: 47% of male vote (47%) + 50% of female vote (53%)
(0.47 * 0.47) + (0.50 + 0.53) = 0.4859


There's some rounding/Nader<1% error included, but it's not going to move the numbers too much either way.

[Erc]

There's also a difference in Margin here...

Exit polls here were showing Bush down 2 or so.  He won by 2-3.  5-pt difference.

In the Ukraine, exit polls were showing Yushchenko up 11.  He "lost" by 3.  14-pt difference.

Exit polls may be bad, but they're not that bad.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

Their final exit poll showed Bush winning 11% among males and 3% among females...unless 95% of our country is now female (I wish) that's not a 3% win.

The exit polls - nearly all of them - were wrong. There were mixed messages, I'd assume.

[SirMuxALot]

Exit polls here were showing Bush down 2 or so.  He won by 2-3.  5-pt difference.

I can't find any exit poll that showed Bush down 2.

In fact, I can't find any exit poll other than the one CNN used (Edison/Mitofsky).  Were there any other smaller organizations doing exit polling on Nov. 2 other than Edison/Mitofsky?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

But didn't the final exit poll show Bush winning by about 3% nationally?  And didn't the final exit poll show Bush winning Ohio by about 2%?

Was there every really any *final* exit poll (not the 2:00 PM ET incomplete data) that showed something far off from the actual result?

The only data I can find:

CNN
National - Bush 51.22%, Kerry 47.78%
Ohio - Bush 50.94%, Kerry 48.59%

...which is darn close to the actual result.

Exit polls that were "fixed" to the actual result don't prove anything. Trust me, those are not the exit polls from when people stopped voting.

[SirMuxALot]

Their final exit poll showed Bush winning 11% among males and 3% among females...unless 95% of our country is now female (I wish) that's not a 3% win.

I can't really parse what you're saying here.  Nationally?  Bush was +11% with males, -3% females.  How is that not a 51-48 win?

The exit polls - nearly all of them - were wrong. There were mixed messages, I'd assume.

Which ones were wrong?  What were the numbers?  Where can we find the data?

I'd just be happy if somebody could point me to just one exit poll other than the Edison/Mitofsky one. 

(I don't think others exist - the networks disbanded VNS after 2000 and collectively hired Edison-Mitofsky to replace it.)

[SirMuxALot]

Exit polls that were "fixed" to the actual result don't prove anything. Trust me, those are not the exit polls from when people stopped voting.

Explain the statement 'fixed to the actual result'.  I can't parse that.

Where are these other exit polls you hint at?

[SirMuxALot]

Keith Olbermann has received an email from Warren Mitofsky, and The Exit Pollster In Chief ain't happy: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6533008/#041124a

And there's some interesting self-serving dissembling by John Zogby in the article as well.

Key quotes about the Mitofsky letter:

In an unsolicited e-mail to Countdown, Warren Mitofsky wrote that he was “struck by the misinformation” in our program. He heads Mitofsky International, which along with Edison Media Research, conducted the election night exit polling for the television networks and the Associated Press. I referred to the variance among the early and late exit polls, and the voting. Insisting “there were no early exit polls” released by his company or Edison, Mr. Mitofsky wrote “the early release came from unauthorized leaks to bloggers who posted misinformation.”

Mitofsky compared those leaks to “the score at half time at a football game” and said the “leakers were reading complex displays intended for trained statisticians. The leakers did not understand what they were reading and the bloggers did not know they were getting misinformation.”

His defense of his work grew more strident. “The presidential exit polls released at poll closing time when they were completed had an average error of 1.9 percentage points. There were no mistaken projections by Edison/Mitofsky or any of the NEP members.” One more thrust: “All the professionals correctly interpreted the numbers.”