2013 NYC Mayoral Race?

[Progressive]

I know it's 2 years away but any thoughts on this race? I think the winner will obviously be a Democrats, it has been decades of Republicans and Bloomberg will leave a sour taste in the mouth of New Yorkers.

Any credence to the idea that Harold Ford Jr will run for Mayor?

[Lunar]

Any credence to the idea that Harold Ford Jr will run for Mayor?

As a Democrat, he'd get decimated in a primary.  He has no base of support when there's already credible pro-Business Democrats like Quinn in the mix.

This is someone who has only been to all of the five boroughs via  helicopter.  I don't see where he has the votes for even a fifth place showing in a Democratic primary.

[Progressive]

Any credence to the idea that Harold Ford Jr will run for Mayor?

As a Democrat, he'd get decimated in a primary.  He has no base of support when there's already credible pro-Business Democrats like Quinn in the mix.

This is someone who has only been to all of the five boroughs via  helicopter.  I don't see where he has the votes for even a fifth place showing in a Democratic primary.

I guess so. But we tend to nominate strange people for citywide office

[Lunar]

Any credence to the idea that Harold Ford Jr will run for Mayor?

As a Democrat, he'd get decimated in a primary.  He has no base of support when there's already credible pro-Business Democrats like Quinn in the mix.

This is someone who has only been to all of the five boroughs via  helicopter.  I don't see where he has the votes for even a fifth place showing in a Democratic primary.

I guess so. But we tend to nominate strange people for citywide office

But that's not a reason for any particular strange person to have an especially notable shot.  Where would Harold Ford get his votes from?

[Progressive]

Any credence to the idea that Harold Ford Jr will run for Mayor?

As a Democrat, he'd get decimated in a primary.  He has no base of support when there's already credible pro-Business Democrats like Quinn in the mix.

This is someone who has only been to all of the five boroughs via  helicopter.  I don't see where he has the votes for even a fifth place showing in a Democratic primary.

I guess so. But we tend to nominate strange people for citywide office

But that's not a reason for any particular strange person to have an especially notable shot.  Where would Harold Ford get his votes from?

Possibly African American voters or maybe young voters, a lot of people may not want to vote for Quinn, Weiner, Liu and especially Bill Thompson

[Verily]

Any credence to the idea that Harold Ford Jr will run for Mayor?

As a Democrat, he'd get decimated in a primary.  He has no base of support when there's already credible pro-Business Democrats like Quinn in the mix.

This is someone who has only been to all of the five boroughs via  helicopter.  I don't see where he has the votes for even a fifth place showing in a Democratic primary.

I guess so. But we tend to nominate strange people for citywide office

But that's not a reason for any particular strange person to have an especially notable shot.  Where would Harold Ford get his votes from?

Possibly African American voters or maybe young voters, a lot of people may not want to vote for Quinn, Weiner, Liu and especially Bill Thompson

Why on Earth would young voters like Harold Ford? Anthony Weiner and Christine Quinn seem like pretty obvious fits for the youth vote, as far as it goes.

Also, you need institutional backing to dominate the black vote in NYC. Thompson has that (but won't run again--some other institutional black candidate will, not sure who); Ford does not.

Interesting, too, that there is no major Hispanic candidate yet.

TBF, if Ford runs at all, he will do as Bloomberg did and switch parties to run in the GOP primary. That's the only way he could make it to the general election.

[jbgator]

As a Republican I hope Weiner gets it, he's worked very hard for it.  Holding back to Ferrer in 05 was a classy move.

[Keystone Phil]

Just thrilled that it won't be Bloomberg again. I remember being so happy in 2009 when it ended up being a pretty close race on Election Night. No one saw that coming. Remember the article mocking his campaign? Then again, it was also disappointing to see Thomas come out of no where and fall short.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

You'd rather have a Democrat? You never struck me as a Bloomberg fan but still...

[Keystone Phil]

You'd rather have a Democrat? You never struck me as a Bloomberg fan but still...

Yes, I would. Ferrer or Thomas were never going to be national media whores/get obsessed over because they were "Independents" that might launch an Independent campaign for the Presidency.

[Franzl]

Is it just the media whore part that bothers you? Because as far as his job performance....I don't see how you could disapprove too strongly.

[Lunar]

Any credence to the idea that Harold Ford Jr will run for Mayor?

As a Democrat, he'd get decimated in a primary.  He has no base of support when there's already credible pro-Business Democrats like Quinn in the mix.

This is someone who has only been to all of the five boroughs via  helicopter.  I don't see where he has the votes for even a fifth place showing in a Democratic primary.

I guess so. But we tend to nominate strange people for citywide office

But that's not a reason for any particular strange person to have an especially notable shot.  Where would Harold Ford get his votes from?

Possibly African American voters or maybe young voters, a lot of people may not want to vote for Quinn, Weiner, Liu and especially Bill Thompson

See, you don't get to count on winning the African-American vote in New York City just on the virtue of being black.  A conservative Southern black Congressman with a history of supporting the NRA and now is a Manhattan rich guy who has no connections to Harlem, Queens, Bronx, Staten Island or Brooklyn, isn't exactly an ideal fit.

And your second point that Ford may be a good fit for voters who don't want to vote for four or five of the prominent candidates (throw in de Blasio to your list), well, it's just plain hard to believe that there are that many people who are going to vote for a candidate by default by virtue of not liking four other candidates.  I doubt more than a handful of voters will have strong opinions for or against all members of such a varying set of candidates.  

[Verily]

And your second point that Ford may be a good fit for voters who don't want to vote for four or five of the prominent candidates (throw in de Blasio to your list), well, it's just plain hard to believe that there are that many people who are going to vote for a candidate by default by virtue of not liking four other candidates.  I doubt more than a handful of voters will have strong opinions for or against all members of such a varying set of candidates.  

Pretty much true. The four likely candidates at this point have nearly every major constituency locked up anyway; only Hispanics don't have an obvious candidate.

Quinn wins Manhattan whites and the white liberals of north Brooklyn. She also does well with Hispanics in Manhattan and inner Brooklyn if there is no Hispanic candidate. Weiner wins outer borough, more conservative whites (whatever his own views, those are his demographics) with inroads into Hispanics in Queens as well. Liu dominates the Asian vote and also competes with Weiner for the conservative white vote and with Quinn for the liberal white vote. Thompson wins the black vote but is probably less than totally dominant.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Quinn wins Manhattan whites and the white liberals of north Brooklyn.

What about those that are Jews? I think Weiner would at least have a solid showing with them as well.

[Keystone Phil]

Is it just the media whore part that bothers you? Because as far as his job performance....I don't see how you could disapprove too strongly.

I'm not saying he's a terrible Mayor but I don't like the way he uses his bully pulpit on a whole host of issues.

[Lunar]

Verily -- don't forget that Quinn is a Bloomberg ally and as a pro-business Irish woman, she may be able to compete for other demographics besides gay-friendly liberal whites.  

In mayoral elections past, there's been an alliance between institutional Hispanic leaders and black leaders,

Also, de Blasio could also be competitive for conservative white votes in the outer boroughs and Thompson, as the major black candidate, could do very well in Norther Manhattan too.

[cinyc]

Is it just the media whore part that bothers you? Because as far as his job performance....I don't see how you could disapprove too strongly.

I can see how conservatives can disagree of a nanny-state, car-hating, gun-grabbing, elitist know-it-all mayor who thinks he knows better than his constituents and has a right to tell them how to live their lives.   Especially after he botched the latest snow cleanup in the outer boroughs, where most of those folks live.

[Progressive]

Despite her name recognition, I don't think Chris Quinn would win (or even come in second or third place) in a primary. Although she is a member of the LGBT community, virtually all of the other potential Democrats support same-sex rights and in fact many of the LGBT in her home district voted for her primary challenger in 2009. She is also way too tied to Bloomberg. Even if Bloomberg ends popularly, which is more likely than not (I mean 50% approval or above), Bloomberg fatigue will prevail. How many signs will say "No Bloomberg 4th Term?"

I don't think Thompson will wind up on the Democratic ballot, despite his surge on Election Day 09, there will be a slew of candidates vying for the nod.

[Lunar]

Despite her name recognition, I don't think Chris Quinn would win (or even come in second or third place) in a primary. Although she is a member of the LGBT community, virtually all of the other potential Democrats support same-sex rights and in fact many of the LGBT in her home district voted for her primary challenger in 2009. She is also way too tied to Bloomberg. Even if Bloomberg ends popularly, which is more likely than not (I mean 50% approval or above), Bloomberg fatigue will prevail. How many signs will say "No Bloomberg 4th Term?"

Quinn will receive a lot of LGBT media attention and the other candidates far less so.  It's not just about supporting marriage rights in NYC -- hell, Bloomberg supports marriage rights.  All of the Democrats running for Attorney General supported equal marriage rights, but gay groups coalesced around Schneiderman and Rice.  GLAAD, Stonewall Dems, etc. won't distribute their endorsements equally.

I don't think Thompson will wind up on the Democratic ballot, despite his surge on Election Day 09, there will be a slew of candidates vying for the nod.

I don't see how these two statements are connected.  A slew of other candidates vying for the nod will only help Thompson, who has given every indication that he will run, even to the point of asking his friends like State Sen. Adams not to run on his behalf.

The reason why there's no other prominent black [or Latino] candidates among the mayoral contenders is, I think, because everyone really thinks Thompson's in it for sure.

[Verily]

Verily -- don't forget that Quinn is a Bloomberg ally and as a pro-business Irish woman, she may be able to compete for other demographics besides gay-friendly liberal whites.  

In mayoral elections past, there's been an alliance between institutional Hispanic leaders and black leaders,

Also, de Blasio could also be competitive for conservative white votes in the outer boroughs and Thompson, as the major black candidate, could do very well in Norther Manhattan too.

But the outer borough white vote is not economically conservative or pro-business. It's a law-and-order vote. Quinn doesn't really have that image the way Giuliani did, and Bloomberg always had less dominance than Giuliani in the outer borough white vote as a result of being less law-and-order based (and, of course, being a Republican--not relevant in the Democratic primary). Unless Bloomberg outright endorses her (unlikely), I don't think she is particularly competitive among such voters (except perhaps in wealthy places like Mill Basin or Beechhurst that have relatively few Democrats to begin with) against Weiner, who also hits the right demographic buttons but actually represents such areas and has greater political ties to them.

That the Hispanic and black leadership have had an informal agreement in the recent past is irrelevant to this election. That only arose out of a mutual desire to defeat Bloomberg. In any case, the 2005-2009 mayoral vote change should show pretty clearly that Hispanic and black voters tend not to follow their leaders (by far the greatest Bloomberg advances in 2009 were in Hispanic areas, and by far his greatest declines were in black areas, save a couple of Hasid spots). I would not take, for example, a Ruben Diaz endorsement of Thompson to guarantee that Bronx Hispanics vote for Thompson and not for Quinn or Weiner (or someone else).

I took "the black vote" to include Harlem blacks. After all, I did specify whites in Manhattan for Quinn, not Manhattanites generally.

[Lunar]

But the outer borough white vote is not economically conservative or pro-business. It's a law-and-order vote. Quinn doesn't really have that image the way Giuliani did, and Bloomberg always had less dominance than Giuliani in the outer borough white vote as a result of being less law-and-order based (and, of course, being a Republican--not relevant in the Democratic primary). Unless Bloomberg outright endorses her (unlikely), I don't think she is particularly competitive among such voters (except perhaps in wealthy places like Mill Basin or Beechhurst that have relatively few Democrats to begin with) against Weiner, who also hits the right demographic buttons but actually represents such areas and has greater political ties to them.

That's a great point, I hadn't considered those important nuances like that before.  My one response, for what it's worth, is that Quinn has a certain potential ability to create a brand that plays well in Democratic Irish Brooklyn, even if she doesn't place first.  And, of course, if Weiner doesn't run, and other candidate match-up scenarios like that, things could be shaken up.

That the Hispanic and black leadership have had an informal agreement in the recent past is irrelevant to this election. That only arose out of a mutual desire to defeat Bloomberg.

Irrelevant?  I'm not so sure.  Less relevant, sure.  I imagine, given the current slate of candidates, that the Spanish vote will be viewed as up for grabs, and many candidates will attempt to compete for it.  I was vaguely involved in the AG race in 2010, and I can remember Schneiderman and Coffey competing heavily against each other for the Latino vote, Coffey penning op-eds in El Diario)

I took "the black vote" to include Harlem blacks. After all, I did specify whites in Manhattan for Quinn, not Manhattanites generally.

Sure, I was just mentioning other people that could be vote sinks in Manhattan proper

[cinyc]

2013 is a long time away, but I have a feeling that the outer borough white vote might not want to back another Manhattan candidate this time around.  Mayor Bloomberg botched the post-Christmas blizzard clean-up, especially in Southern Brooklyn, Staten Island, and parts of Queens, and keeps on pushing for a congestion pricing tax on outer borough residents driving into Manhattan.  He seems extremely out-of-touch with the outer boroughs.  If Quinn remains close to him, it could conceivably backfire.  But then again, 2013 is a long time away and all of this might be forgotten by then.

[Lunar]

2013 is a long time away, but I have a feeling that the outer borough white vote might not want to back another Manhattan candidate this time around.  Mayor Bloomberg botched the post-Christmas blizzard clean-up, especially in Southern Brooklyn, Staten Island, and parts of Queens, and keeps on pushing for a congestion pricing tax on outer borough residents driving into Manhattan.  He seems extremely out-of-touch with the outer boroughs.  If Quinn remains close to him, it could conceivably backfire.  But then again, 2013 is a long time away and all of this might be forgotten by then.

Of course, Quinn won't necessarily be a natural fit for these areas either, it'll depend on how they brand themselves in the coming years and what the makeup of the Democratic field looks like.  One or two candidates entering or exiting, depending on the candidate (like Weiner) could have a big impact or leave a lot of outer-borough oxygen for another up-and-comer.  As of now, it looks very white and Manhattan-centric, perhaps more so than the makeup of the Democratic primary electorate would suggest is representative

[Badger]

And your second point that Ford may be a good fit for voters who don't want to vote for four or five of the prominent candidates (throw in de Blasio to your list), well, it's just plain hard to believe that there are that many people who are going to vote for a candidate by default by virtue of not liking four other candidates.  I doubt more than a handful of voters will have strong opinions for or against all members of such a varying set of candidates.  

Pretty much true. The four likely candidates at this point have nearly every major constituency locked up anyway; only Hispanics don't have an obvious candidate.

Quinn wins Manhattan whites and the white liberals of north Brooklyn. She also does well with Hispanics in Manhattan and inner Brooklyn if there is no Hispanic candidate. Weiner wins outer borough, more conservative whites (whatever his own views, those are his demographics) with inroads into Hispanics in Queens as well. Liu dominates the Asian vote and also competes with Weiner for the conservative white vote and with Quinn for the liberal white vote. Thompson wins the black vote but is probably less than totally dominant.

All Asians or just East Asians (e.g. Chinatown). Why would she play well among Indian and Pakastani voters who make up a big chunk of Queens and elsewhere?

[Lunar]

All Asians or just East Asians (e.g. Chinatown). Why would she play well among Indian and Pakastani voters who make up a big chunk of Queens and elsewhere?

Well, there's probably twice as many East and Southeast Asians in Queens than Indian and Pakistanis. Wikipedia says than the Indian share of the Asian population is far lower in the other boroughs, additionally.

And, of course, Liu will have a strong base in Queens political leaders