2013 NYC Mayoral Race?

[patrick1]

But the outer borough white vote is not economically conservative or pro-business. It's a law-and-order vote. Quinn doesn't really have that image the way Giuliani did, and Bloomberg always had less dominance than Giuliani in the outer borough white vote as a result of being less law-and-order based (and, of course, being a Republican--not relevant in the Democratic primary). Unless Bloomberg outright endorses her (unlikely), I don't think she is particularly competitive among such voters (except perhaps in wealthy places like Mill Basin or Beechhurst that have relatively few Democrats to begin with) against Weiner, who also hits the right demographic buttons but actually represents such areas and has greater political ties to them.

That's a great point, I hadn't considered those important nuances like that before.  My one response, for what it's worth, is that Quinn has a certain potential ability to create a brand that plays well in Democratic Irish Brooklyn, even if she doesn't place first.  And, of course, if Weiner doesn't run, and other candidate match-up scenarios like that, things could be shaken up.

That the Hispanic and black leadership have had an informal agreement in the recent past is irrelevant to this election. That only arose out of a mutual desire to defeat Bloomberg.

Irrelevant?  I'm not so sure.  Less relevant, sure.  I imagine, given the current slate of candidates, that the Spanish vote will be viewed as up for grabs, and many candidates will attempt to compete for it.  I was vaguely involved in the AG race in 2010, and I can remember Schneiderman and Coffey competing heavily against each other for the Latino vote, Coffey penning op-eds in El Diario)

I took "the black vote" to include Harlem blacks. After all, I did specify whites in Manhattan for Quinn, not Manhattanites generally.

Sure, I was just mentioning other people that could be vote sinks in Manhattan proper

There are really not many Irish left in Brooklyn and many of those that remain wouldn't vote for Quinn- regardless of her surname.

[Lunar]

Well, there's some in Bay Ridge and Gerritsen Beach.  All I'm saying is that as of now, this election looks like it could be decided in the outer boroughs, and I wouldn't be surprised if the Democratic candidates played to their strengths, to the best of their abilities, in that regard.  It doesn't mean winning the neighborhoods, simply placing well.

[Lunar]

Anyway, yeah, I think I'm wrong to think so strongly on the European-American type of vote anyhoo.  Probably more important to look at who will have the most money and who will have the big unions behind them and that sort of thing.

[patrick1]

Yeah, there are pockets- Windsor Terrace and some in Carroll Gardens. Not really more than like 4% and even then you would have some older Catholics who wouldn't vote for a lesbian. The primaries should be interesting. I just hope Weiner is out- I saw him at a town hall and he was really nasty and condescending to a few questioners.

[patrick1]

Anyway, yeah, I think I'm wrong to think so strongly on the European-American type of vote anyhoo.  Probably more important to look at who will have the most money and who will have the big unions behind them and that sort of thing.

My moms union 1199 is very large. They have a lot of money, resources and influence.  Keep an eye on who they back.

[Lunar]

Anyway, yeah, I think I'm wrong to think so strongly on the European-American type of vote anyhoo.  Probably more important to look at who will have the most money and who will have the big unions behind them and that sort of thing.

My moms union 1199 is very large. They have a lot of money, resources and influence.  Keep an eye on who they back.

Of course, eleven ninety-nine is a Tier I endorsement if there is such a thing.  32BJ too

[patrick1]

Bump.  So anyone care to break out their crystal ball?  My first impulse is that this Weiner stuff helps John Liu a bit.  Any other Jewish aspirants out there?

[Keystone Phil]

Alec Baldwin going to give it a shot? - http://www.thedaily.com/page/2011/06/08/060811-news-alec-baldwin-1-2/

I probably shouldn't even post this since he floats his name for elected office every couple of years and it never goes anywhere.

[bullmoose88]

Alec Baldwin going to give it a shot? - http://www.thedaily.com/page/2011/06/08/060811-news-alec-baldwin-1-2/

I probably shouldn't even post this since he floats his name for elected office every couple of years and it never goes anywhere.

Can we clear both sides of the field just so Alec is forced to run against his brothers?  That would be...hilarious.

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

Jack Donaghy would be a great candidate.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Jack Donaghy would be a great candidate.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Jack Donaghy would be a great candidate.

[Progressive]

Bump.  So anyone care to break out their crystal ball?  My first impulse is that this Weiner stuff helps John Liu a bit.  Any other Jewish aspirants out there?

Yes Manhattan Boro President Scott Stringer

[Lupo]

I'd say it's between Quinn and Liu.  I'd prefer Quinn, but would bet on Liu.

[Simfan34]

Is there any truth to the noises the Epoch Times kept on making about Liu's links to the CCP?

I'd much rather have another Republican, but it looks like I'd back Liu here (as long as the Epoch Times is wrong, of course).