Republicans and New England House Seats

[redcommander]

They did slightly worse than expected last fall, but there are pickup opportunities in Connecticut, and I don't really see Bass and Guinta getting thrown out unless Palin is the nominee.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Bass has ethical problems. If they get worse, his goose is cooked. If not he should win reelection.


Guinta is a weak candidate but incumbency should keep him in barring a wave or landslide for Obama.


CT-05 "might" go Republican if open in a neutral or GOP environment with a strong candidate. CT-04 could in a special election with McKinney as the nominee but probably not in any other scenario.

[Napoleon]

You really ought to wait for re-districting. It's possible that only NH will have any GOP opportunities and it's doubtful Bass can defeat Kuster again.

[redcommander]

You really ought to wait for re-districting. It's possible that only NH will have any GOP opportunities and it's doubtful Bass can defeat Kuster again.

You're saying that there might be gerrymandering in Connecticut?

[minionofmidas]

You really ought to wait for re-districting. It's possible that only NH will have any GOP opportunities and it's doubtful Bass can defeat Kuster again.

You're saying that there might be gerrymandering in Connecticut?

They have some legal limits to what they can do, but within those limits they're fairly well gerrymandered right now. They only need to undo that to drastically reduce the GOP's chances in the 5th.

Considerable parts of Bass' district is headed Vermont way. It's exceedingly unlikely that it can ever be a safe GOP seat again, though if 2012 turns out favorable and/or he gets a weak opponent, he certainly could hang on. Thus the most plausible answers are 0 and 1. I went with 1.

[Napoleon]

You really ought to wait for re-districting. It's possible that only NH will have any GOP opportunities and it's doubtful Bass can defeat Kuster again.

You're saying that there might be gerrymandering in Connecticut?

Yeah, with the 5th made more Democratic and maybe the 4th as well, Republicans have no where to go here. If Bysiewicz wins the Democratic primary for Senate, the Senate race will be more competitive than the House races.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I would presume that all New England incumbents up for election in 2012 are favored for re-election unless something changes.

[krazen1211]

You really ought to wait for re-districting. It's possible that only NH will have any GOP opportunities and it's doubtful Bass can defeat Kuster again.

You're saying that there might be gerrymandering in Connecticut?

Bush won 1 of the 5 CT districts in 2004. And since they require a 2/3 margin to redistrict, I suppose CT GOP members might as well punt or go for minimal change.

Looks like it was the 5th, which will probably be open in 2012.

[Mr.Phips]

You really ought to wait for re-districting. It's possible that only NH will have any GOP opportunities and it's doubtful Bass can defeat Kuster again.

You're saying that there might be gerrymandering in Connecticut?

Bush won 1 of the 5 CT districts in 2004. And since they require a 2/3 margin to redistrict, I suppose CT GOP members might as well punt or go for minimal change.

Looks like it was the 5th, which will probably be open in 2012.

Kerry actually won the fifth. 

[xavier110]

Bass is not surviving. I expect Guinta to hold on.

[Napoleon]

Bass is not surviving. I expect Guinta to hold on.

I wonder if Lamontagne can primary Bass from the right. He'd actually be a stronger candidate than Bass too.

[Landslide Lyndon]

You really ought to wait for re-districting. It's possible that only NH will have any GOP opportunities and it's doubtful Bass can defeat Kuster again.

You're saying that there might be gerrymandering in Connecticut?

They have some legal limits to what they can do, but within those limits they're fairly well gerrymandered right now. They only need to undo that to drastically reduce the GOP's chances in the 5th.

Considerable parts of Bass' district is headed Vermont way. It's exceedingly unlikely that it can ever be a safe GOP seat again, though if 2012 turns out favorable and/or he gets a weak opponent, he certainly could hang on. Thus the most plausible answers are 0 and 1. I went with 1.

I agree with Lewis. Bass is just one tier above certified one-termers like Allen West.

[krazen1211]

You really ought to wait for re-districting. It's possible that only NH will have any GOP opportunities and it's doubtful Bass can defeat Kuster again.

You're saying that there might be gerrymandering in Connecticut?

Bush won 1 of the 5 CT districts in 2004. And since they require a 2/3 margin to redistrict, I suppose CT GOP members might as well punt or go for minimal change.

Looks like it was the 5th, which will probably be open in 2012.

Kerry actually won the fifth. 

Ah, youre right, but by a very small margin. Either way, CT GOPers should maintain that district if possible.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Bass is not surviving. I expect Guinta to hold on.

I wonder if Lamontagne can primary Bass from the right. He'd actually be a stronger candidate than Bass too.

Isn't he in the other district? Ayotte does live in the second, as did Judd Gregg before her.

[Napoleon]

The CT GOP can't decide whether it wants to appeal to the socially conservative working class whites or the wealthy social liberals that make up places like CT-04. It's increasingly difficult to do both.

[Napoleon]

Bass is not surviving. I expect Guinta to hold on.

I wonder if Lamontagne can primary Bass from the right. He'd actually be a stronger candidate than Bass too.

Isn't he in the other district? Ayotte does live in the second, as did Judd Gregg before her.

Not sure but I don't think moving to the other district matters. Regionalism isn't rampant in NH.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Ovide is from Manchester, I believe, which is in the 1st.

My guess is they'll have between 1 and 3 seats. Guinta will probably stay on in NH-01; he's a bad candidate but that's the most Republican district in the region. Bass is 50/50, given his mediocre performance when every other Republican was doing well in the state. They'll probably have a decent shot at CT-05, since it's open, but if Obama's win there is anything like his win in 2008, it'll make things hard for them to pick it up. Nothing else will be competitive, short of a surprise scandal or an open ME-02.

[minionofmidas]

Bass is not surviving. I expect Guinta to hold on.

I wonder if Lamontagne can primary Bass from the right. He'd actually be a stronger candidate than Bass too.

Isn't he in the other district? Ayotte does live in the second, as did Judd Gregg before her.

Not sure but I don't think moving to the other district matters. Regionalism isn't rampant in NH.

'Specially as the district map doesn't very well reflect the main cleavages.

The CT GOP can't decide whether it wants to appeal to the socially conservative working class whites or the wealthy social liberals that make up places like CT-04. It's increasingly difficult to do both.

Aren't Democrats faced with the same question?

[krazen1211]

The CT GOP can't decide whether it wants to appeal to the socially conservative working class whites or the wealthy social liberals that make up places like CT-04. It's increasingly difficult to do both.

Aren't Democrats faced with the same question?

No, because they have the minorities and the unions.

[minionofmidas]

The CT GOP can't decide whether it wants to appeal to the socially conservative working class whites or the wealthy social liberals that make up places like CT-04. It's increasingly difficult to do both.

Aren't Democrats faced with the same question?

No, because they have the minorities and the unions.

That just means they always win if both parties are roughly equally successful at attracting the groups described above, though.

[krazen1211]

The CT GOP can't decide whether it wants to appeal to the socially conservative working class whites or the wealthy social liberals that make up places like CT-04. It's increasingly difficult to do both.

Aren't Democrats faced with the same question?

No, because they have the minorities and the unions.

That just means they always win if both parties are roughly equally successful at attracting the groups described above, though.

Precisely. So while the  GOP has to figure out the social liberals and the working class at the same time, the Democrats only need 1 or the other.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I agree with Lewis. Bass is just one tier above certified one-termers like Allen West.

Bass is several tiers above, considering that this is his seventh term. Non-consecutive, yes, but still. Seventh term.

For 2012 to be as ugly for him as 2010, you need to (ironically!) assume 2012 will be as ugly an anti-incumbent year as 2010 was. Bass isn't safe, but the assumptions that he's a goner require a number of different planets to align.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I agree with Lewis. Bass is just one tier above certified one-termers like Allen West.

Bass is several tiers above, considering that this is his seventh term. Non-consecutive, yes, but still. Seventh term.

For 2012 to be as ugly for him as 2010, you need to (ironically!) assume 2012 will be as ugly an anti-incumbent year as 2010 was. Bass isn't safe, but the assumptions that he's a goner require a number of different planets to align.

Bass ran an abysmal campaign in 2010 (again) and almost lost to an opponent with no prior elective experience and with far less money. He represents a D+3 district and he is ethically challenged.
I don't know what else he must do to be considered very vulnerable.

[Nichlemn]

I agree with Lewis. Bass is just one tier above certified one-termers like Allen West.

Bass is several tiers above, considering that this is his seventh term. Non-consecutive, yes, but still. Seventh term.

For 2012 to be as ugly for him as 2010, you need to (ironically!) assume 2012 will be as ugly an anti-incumbent year as 2010 was. Bass isn't safe, but the assumptions that he's a goner require a number of different planets to align.

Bass ran an abysmal campaign in 2010 (again) and almost lost to an opponent with no prior elective experience and with far less money. He represents a D+3 district and he is ethically challenged.
I don't know what else he must do to be considered very vulnerable.

Also, the fact that he was a quasi-incumbent already meant that the normal incumbency boost is unlikely to apply to him in 2012.

[Brittain33]

The Republicans pounded the Democrat with ads all season in NH-2 for supporting Obama's tax hike, Medicare cutting agenda and she still almost won. I don't know what this means for 2012 but she didn't sneak into a very close second place.