Montana trending Democratic?

[Mehmentum]

Hear me out here.

In 1992, Bill Clinton got roughly 38% of the vote in Montana, enough to win it because of Perot. In 1996, Bill Clinton got 41% of the vote in Montana, probably because Perot got less of the vote, however, Dole got most of the benefit from this. 

In 2000, Gore got only 33% of the vote, Bill Clinton appealed to middle class white voters in a way Gore didn't.  In 2004, Kerry, who really shouldn't have done any better than Gore did, got 38% of the vote. 

In 2008, Obama lost with 47%, a nine point swing from 2004 in an election with an national swing of 5 points.

This means that Montana has had a 15 point swing since 2000, a larger swing for Democrats than any state except for Vermont and Hawaii (and all of Hawaii's swing was between 2004 and 2008, Obama being a favorite son is definitely a factor here).  Interestingly, North Dakota is right behind Montana in swing towards the Democrats, perhaps this is a regional thing?

[Person Man]

Eh...Polling in Montana indicates that the average voter who may have swung for him in 2008 is getting sick of him and probably will not consider him again.

[Antonio the Sixth]

In 2008, Montana was more democratic than it was in 2008, 2004, 2000 and 1996. However, in any election from 1932 to 1992 (except 1980), it was more democratic than in 2008. So, yes, a clear democratic trend, but not a long-term one.

[albaleman]

No, not really. Montana Democrats just did better than they should have in 2006 and 2008. Montana will always be a Republican leaning state due to its demographics - white, rural, and older.

[DS0816]

State of Montana votes like Colorado -- with Colo. more blueish and Mont. more reddish. Obama Camp in 2008 should've pursued getting Mont. to flip -- but, if he's re-elected in 2012, the president will flip and carry Mont.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

On the presidential level, probably not for reasons already discussed.  Obama will likely fall back to the mid to low 40's in 2012, here.


On the state level, The Dems have owned Montana for a century really. It used to be said that Lee didn't surrender, just retreated to MT, because so many southerners settled there and hence the Democratic strength. Max Baucus' seat has been Democratic since 1912. Jon Tester's seat has only had two Republican Senators since 1910, Ecton elected to one term in 1946 and Burns elected in 1988 and defeated in 2006.


Starting in 1988, the GOP had began a period in which they did well, electing several GOP Governors and Conrad Burns to the Senate. They then elected Rick Hill to the House in 1996 and succeeded him with Denny Rehberg in 2000. However, since the mid 2000's, the state's GOP has been a mess. Though I should point out the state legisature is now completely controlled by Republicans, again.

[Person Man]

Then again, it will be interesting to see what happens to Montana when the baby boomers start moving to the sun belt or if they are stubborn, start to die. This could cause these grey states to become purple states as age demographics start to turn to normal with the death of the baby boomers. Heck, the Boho towns, lab towns and ski towns might yet be turning Wyoming-lite into a New New Hampshire.

[DS0816]

On the presidential level, probably not for reasons already discussed.  Obama will likely fall back to the mid to low 40's in 2012 [Montana].

2008 Montana
* John McCain (R): 49.49%
Barack Obama (D): 47.11%

Margin: R+2.38% (Shift: D+18.12%)

Males (49) *53% | 44%
Females (51) 47% | *51%

If the vote percentage and margin for President Barack Obama were to come down in 2012 Montana to, say, 42.11%, there would be a shift of R+10% in this state alone. If that were to be happening in Montana, the White Hosue goes Republican. And considering voting history in presidential elections, I'm not buying your scenario.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

On the presidential level, probably not for reasons already discussed.  Obama will likely fall back to the mid to low 40's in 2012, here.

On the state level, The Dems have owned Montana for a century really. It used to be said that Lee didn't surrender, just retreated to MT, because so many southerners settled there and hence the Democratic strength.

Wasn't there a similar sitiation with Idaho, before idiots like Fred Dubois blew it up?

[HAnnA MArin County]

Montana was definitely surprising in 2008 seeing as how close the margin of victory was; however, didn't Ron Paul come in third place with around 2-3 percent of the vote? I'm sure his presence on the ticket siphoned away some McCain votes, so in all reality, Montana is still a leans Republican state, granted not a GOP stronghold like its neighbors Idaho and Wyoming.

I don't think Montana will be as close in 2012, especially if current polling holds true and looking at what happened in the state in 2010 with the Republicans taking control of the state legislature. If even Palin can defeat Obama in Montana, then yeah, he may want to focus more on possibly winning Arizona in this region.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Montana was definitely surprising in 2008 seeing as how close the margin of victory was; however, didn't Ron Paul come in third place with around 2-3 percent of the vote?

2.17%

I don't think Montana will be as close in 2012

Agreed. Montana isn't friendly for a Democratic presidential incumbents.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

On the presidential level, probably not for reasons already discussed.  Obama will likely fall back to the mid to low 40's in 2012, here.

On the state level, The Dems have owned Montana for a century really. It used to be said that Lee didn't surrender, just retreated to MT, because so many southerners settled there and hence the Democratic strength.

Wasn't there a similar sitiation with Idaho, before idiots like Fred Dubois blew it up?

On the presidential level, probably not for reasons already discussed.  Obama will likely fall back to the mid to low 40's in 2012 [Montana].

2008 Montana
* John McCain (R): 49.49%
Barack Obama (D): 47.11%

Margin: R+2.38% (Shift: D+18.12%)

Males (49) *53% | 44%
Females (51) 47% | *51%

If the vote percentage and margin for President Barack Obama were to come down in 2012 Montana to, say, 42.11%, there would be a shift of R+10% in this state alone. If that were to be happening in Montana, the White Hosue goes Republican. And considering voting history in presidential elections, I'm not buying your scenario.

Did Mt follow strictly with the nationwide popular vote swing from 2004 to 2008? Lets see Bush won by 2.5 and Obama by 7. So that is a shift of 9 points. Bush won MT by 20 points. Did McCain then win the state by 10? No. Thus it is safe to say that the Obama numbers in MT were inflated in 2008 and will likely fall back down to normal levels, not at the inflated level, and this is only further supported by Obama's poor approval numbers in Mt. Thus I expect Obama to get about 44%-45% if he is winning reelection and 40%-42% if he is losing.

How the hell you can explain D+18 in 2008 and not even consider some recoiling?