Yelnoc's Candidate List

[Yelnoc]

This list is broken into four sections.  Tier 1 potential candidates are those who are constantly in the press and have a shot at the nomination.  Tier 2 potential candidates are those who have not received as much attention but have a shot at the nomination.  Tier 3 potential candidates have had minimal media exposure and little to no shot at the nomination.  Tier 4 are for jokes, people who don't expect to be elected, and people who have absolutely 0 shot at the nomination.  The fifth section is for candidates who generated serious speculation in 2010 but have definitively stated they will not run.  Candidates who are definitively running (have formed exploratory committees and/or declared) are in bold.  Please let me know if I miss any updates.


Tier 1
Bachmann
Perry
Romney

Tier 2
Cain
Huntsman
Palin
Paul
Pawlenty

Tier 3
Bolton
Gingrich
Giuliani
Johnson
McCotter
Santorum

Tier 4
Davis
Karger
Martin
McMillan
Moore
Roemer
Savior

Not Running
Angle
Barbour
Bush
Christie
Daniels
DeMint
Huckabee
Jindal
McDonnell
Pataki
Pence
Petraeus
Rubio
Thune
Trump

[Grumpier Than Thou]

This is how it'll go:

Candidates at will participate in first debate:

Paul
Romney
Huckabee
Gingrich
Cain
Daniels
Huntsman
Johnson
Pawlenty
Trump
Barbour

Candidates after Iowa/New Hampshire:

Huckabee
Romney
Daniels
Gingrich
Paul
Johnson
Pawlenty

After April:

Huckabee
Romney
Daniels
Gingrich
Paul
Pawlenty


Candidates as of the week before the Republican Convention:

Huckabee
Romney
Daniels
Pawlenty

Presidential Nominee/VP Nominee:

Daniels/Martinez

EDITED 3/5/11

[California8429]

You really think 5 candidates are going to make it all the way to the convention?

[Grumpier Than Thou]

You really think 5 candidates are going to make it all the way to the convention?

Palin and Romney won't know when to quit.

[Yelnoc]

This thread is just for things as they stand now.  I'll be updating it periodically.

[tmthforu94]

You really think 5 candidates are going to make it all the way to the convention?

Palin and Romney won't know when to quit.

Considering Romney dropped out in 2008 well before McCain secured enough delegates, I disagree. Huckabee would be a much example of not knowing when to quit than Romney.

[Grumpier Than Thou]

You really think 5 candidates are going to make it all the way to the convention?

Palin and Romney won't know when to quit.

Considering Romney dropped out in 2008 well before McCain secured enough delegates, I disagree. Huckabee would be a much example of not knowing when to quit than Romney.

Well, I have Huckabee Daniels (3/5/11) winning the nom, so it'd be a good reason to not quit. I think 2012 will be different for Romney because he'll think that leading Utah and Nevada polls will do him well enough to win the nom, which he won't.

[California8429]

You really think 5 candidates are going to make it all the way to the convention?

Palin and Romney won't know when to quit.

Considering Romney dropped out in 2008 well before McCain secured enough delegates, I disagree. Huckabee would be a much example of not knowing when to quit than Romney.

Well, I have Huckabee winning the nom, so it'd be a good reason to not quit. I think 2012 will be different for Romney because he'll think that leading Utah and Nevada polls will do him well enough to win the nom, which he won't.

That's what happened last time though and he stepped aside immedately once Califorina was lost. He's not going to stay to ruin the party, that doesn't given him a cabinet position, VP, or a future.

[Bull Moose Base]

You really think 5 candidates are going to make it all the way to the convention?

Palin and Romney won't know when to quit.

Considering Romney dropped out in 2008 well before McCain secured enough delegates, I disagree. Huckabee would be a much example of not knowing when to quit than Romney.

Well, I have Huckabee winning the nom, so it'd be a good reason to not quit. I think 2012 will be different for Romney because he'll think that leading Utah and Nevada polls will do him well enough to win the nom, which he won't.

That's what happened last time though and he stepped aside immedately once Califorina was lost. He's not going to stay to ruin the party, that doesn't given him a cabinet position, VP, or a future.

He's said he's not interested in cabinet.  Probably safe to assume he's not interested in VP either.  He dropped out relatively early last time because being a team player is good for your next candidacy.  Which he was witnessing as McCain had twice endorsed Bush who he couldn't stand before winning the nom.  I think Romney is more likely to doggedly chase it a la Hillary 2008.  Not sure about the nom. not being settled as the convention approaches but it'd be fun.

[Yelnoc]

I added Riley and Gregg to tier two.  Any complaints or suggestions?

[Mr. Morden]

Why Gregg?  Has he said or done anything to indicate he's interested in running?

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Gregg is one of those canidates who will come out of nowhere, just as Huntsman started coming out in the list, during the last week or so.

[Yelnoc]

Why Gregg?  Has he said or done anything to indicate he's interested in running?

There was some speculation in December and then January going into the New Hampshire straw poll.  He got destroyed, which was why did not originally include him but I would rather have this list exhaustive to a fault then pass over someone who (could, maybe) launch a successful bid.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

You really think 5 candidates are going to make it all the way to the convention?

Palin and Romney won't know when to quit.

Considering Romney dropped out in 2008 well before McCain secured enough delegates, I disagree. Huckabee would be a much example of not knowing when to quit than Romney.

Huckabee stayed until McCain reached a number of delegates sufficient to win a nomination, and no minute longer.

[California8429]

You really think 5 candidates are going to make it all the way to the convention?

Palin and Romney won't know when to quit.

Considering Romney dropped out in 2008 well before McCain secured enough delegates, I disagree. Huckabee would be a much example of not knowing when to quit than Romney.

Well, I have Huckabee winning the nom, so it'd be a good reason to not quit. I think 2012 will be different for Romney because he'll think that leading Utah and Nevada polls will do him well enough to win the nom, which he won't.

That's what happened last time though and he stepped aside immedately once Califorina was lost. He's not going to stay to ruin the party, that doesn't given him a cabinet position, VP, or a future.

He's said he's not interested in cabinet.  Probably safe to assume he's not interested in VP either.  He dropped out relatively early last time because being a team player is good for your next candidacy.  Which he was witnessing as McCain had twice endorsed Bush who he couldn't stand before winning the nom.  I think Romney is more likely to doggedly chase it a la Hillary 2008.  Not sure about the nom. not being settled as the convention approaches but it'd be fun.

I think his thinking will change once he loses the nomination. His choice is to take a cabinet position, or never have a chance for the presidency again. Not like third time will be the charm...but it's impossible if he doesn't remain a major player in the government

[Yelnoc]

I added an * after Thune because of a news article indicating he is most likely not running (but he hasn't flat out said no yet).  If anyone can find similar articles for other candidates I will sprinkle the list with some more asterisks.

[Mr. Morden]

There is no actual evidence that Gregg is considering a run, whereas Thune has explicitly said that he's thinking about running.  So if anything, it's Gregg who should have an asterisk.

[Yelnoc]

There is no actual evidence that Gregg is considering a run, whereas Thune has explicitly said that he's thinking about running.  So if anything, it's Gregg who should have an asterisk.

Alright, now they both have asterisks.

[Its Evolution Baby]

Palin won't run.

[RIP Robert H Bork]

You really think 5 candidates are going to make it all the way to the convention?

Palin and Romney won't know when to quit.

Considering Romney dropped out in 2008 well before McCain secured enough delegates, I disagree. Huckabee would be a much example of not knowing when to quit than Romney.

Huckabee stayed until McCain reached a number of delegates sufficient to win a nomination, and no minute longer.

Exactly, I don't see what's unreasonable about that. But we know that tmth is a Romney hack so I think we should just disregard him.

[Yelnoc]

Palin won't run.

She just hired a Chief of Staff.

[Yelnoc]

List Updated.  Gingrich and Roemer are bolded, Thune was dropped down to not running, and Pawlenty bumped up to tier 1.

[Yelnoc]

I bolded Pawlenty now that he announced an exploratory committee.

[Yelnoc]

Tier 3 got an upgrade with the addition of Roy Moore and Andy Martin (nobody 1 and 2) and Rand Paul.

[Badger]

Tier 3 got an upgrade with the addition of Roy Moore and Andy Martin (nobody 1 and 2) and Rand Paul.

In fairness to Baby Paul, he's probably at least a Tier 2 candidate simply by virtue of being a Senator (albeit brand new) and not (yet) widely considered by the GOP establishment to be an unelectable long in the tooth crank like dad.