Bush Wins Wisconsin Electoral Vote!

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

If Wisconsin counties were states, and had 2 Senators each and Congressmen allocated the same way US states did...

[minionofmidas]

LOL! This is a nice bit of work. And so completely pointless. I love it. Honestly.

[Democratic Hawk]

When I saw the subject I started having palpitations! Nice work

Do you know if any GOP state would produce a similar Democratic victory?

Dave

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

LOL! This is a nice bit of work. And so completely pointless. I love it. Honestly.

I like doing pointless things, especially when I'm killing time on a long weekend ;-).

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

When I saw the subject I started having palpitations! Nice work

Do you know if any GOP state would produce a similar Democratic victory?

Highly unlikely.  Bush tends to win lots of low-pop counties, and Kerry tends to win a few high-pop counties by very large margins.  Best candidates would be New Mexico and Colorado.  It could also happen in Southern states with lots of rural black counties like Arkansas, Mississippi, and South Carolina, but Bush won by way too much in 2004 in these states.

Clinton probably pulled it off in a few Southern states in 92 and 96.

[Redefeatbush04]

That is quite interesting, and further prove why the electoral college SUCKS. Beef, do you plan on doing any other states?

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

That is quite interesting, and further prove why the electoral college SUCKS. Beef, do you plan on doing any other states?

Depends on how bored I get this weekend, and on how severe my triptophan nap is :-).  WI is the most interesting, since it was percentage-wise the closest state, and has a fairly large number of counties (72).  Also because it's my state...

Another interesting thing about this is that it would take more votes to swing the electoral vote to Kerry (about 9300) than it would have to swing the popular vote to Bush (about 6500).

I don't think it demonstrates that the Electoral College sucks.  On the contrary, it would have made all of the rampant vote fraud and foul play in Milwaukee absolutely meaningless.

[ATFFL]

Right.  We need to get Beef a girlfriend. 

Any volunteers? Anyone with a sister to send to WI?

[CO-OWL]

Right.  We need to get Beef a girlfriend. 

Any volunteers? Anyone with a sister to send to WI?

I think, Beef is already married!?

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

FWIW, it would be unconstitutional for Wisconsin to apportion its electors in this way.  Within a state, all offices must be awarded in a way such that each person's vote counts equally, even though this blatantly doesn't apply on the national level.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Right.  We need to get Beef a girlfriend. 

Any volunteers? Anyone with a sister to send to WI?

I think, Beef is already married!?

Yes, I am.  The boredom is not a bad reflection upon my wife.  It's a bad reflection upon the rest of my family, whom I will be spending a great deal of time with...

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

FWIW, it would be unconstitutional for Wisconsin to apportion its electors in this way.  Within a state, all offices must be awarded in a way such that each person's vote counts equally, even though this blatantly doesn't apply on the national level.

But WI could pull a ME/NE and apportion its electors by CD.  This also would nullify the shady goings-on in Milwaukee.  Although I suspect all of the hooligans would simply drive down to Racine to try and influence CD-1.

[ATFFL]

Right.  We need to get Beef a girlfriend. 

Any volunteers? Anyone with a sister to send to WI?

I think, Beef is already married!?

Yes, I am.  The boredom is not a bad reflection upon my wife.  It's a bad reflection upon the rest of my family, whom I will be spending a great deal of time with...

Right, we need to get Beef a better family.

Any volunteer?  Anyone with a crazy and amusing uncle?

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Right.  We need to get Beef a girlfriend. 

Any volunteers? Anyone with a sister to send to WI?

I think, Beef is already married!?

Yes, I am.  The boredom is not a bad reflection upon my wife.  It's a bad reflection upon the rest of my family, whom I will be spending a great deal of time with...

Right, we need to get Beef a better family.

Any volunteer?  Anyone with a crazy and amusing uncle?

They'd just get irritated at my constant sneaking off to make hypothetical electoral vote maps and post to AF.

[Nym90]

That is quite interesting, and further prove why the electoral college SUCKS. Beef, do you plan on doing any other states?

Depends on how bored I get this weekend, and on how severe my triptophan nap is :-).  WI is the most interesting, since it was percentage-wise the closest state, and has a fairly large number of counties (72).  Also because it's my state...

Another interesting thing about this is that it would take more votes to swing the electoral vote to Kerry (about 9300) than it would have to swing the popular vote to Bush (about 6500).

I don't think it demonstrates that the Electoral College sucks.  On the contrary, it would have made all of the rampant vote fraud and foul play in Milwaukee absolutely meaningless.

Is there proof of fraud in Milwaukee? If so, why is no one doing anything about it? If there is clear proof of Democratic fraud, the Republicans should challenge the results and make sure those responsible find a new job making license plates.

[Alcon]

I actually made a Bush vs. Kerry President Forever scenario for the counties in Washington State. If Bush had taken Snohomish County and a few smaller coastal working class ones, he could lose the PV by 5-10% and still win the electoral "votes."

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

That is quite interesting, and further prove why the electoral college SUCKS. Beef, do you plan on doing any other states?

Depends on how bored I get this weekend, and on how severe my triptophan nap is :-).  WI is the most interesting, since it was percentage-wise the closest state, and has a fairly large number of counties (72).  Also because it's my state...

Another interesting thing about this is that it would take more votes to swing the electoral vote to Kerry (about 9300) than it would have to swing the popular vote to Bush (about 6500).

I don't think it demonstrates that the Electoral College sucks.  On the contrary, it would have made all of the rampant vote fraud and foul play in Milwaukee absolutely meaningless.

Is there proof of fraud in Milwaukee? If so, why is no one doing anything about it?

Because it doesn't change the outcome of the election.  And I am very glad for that.  Had Kerry won Ohio, we'd have a huge mess here.  It's one of the reasons Kerry didn't start challenging the count in OH.  Bush would have gone after WI (and PA), and it would have gotten real, real ugly.

There was probably enough funny business going on on the GOP side to give Ohio to Kerry.  Both sides do this.  But the Democrats in Milwaukee were especially bad this time around.

[minionofmidas]

Iowa has lots of rather narrowly Dem counties, including some with large populations, and a few ultra-Rep areas in the Northeast.
It was also very close.
Do a map of Iowa, Beef. Or I'll send my grandfather to Wisconsin, who's still quite active and bubbly but unfortunately getting rather demented of late.

[nclib]

If Wisconsin counties were states, and had 2 Senators each and Congressmen allocated the same way US states did...

What is the formula for allocating Congressmen?

[minionofmidas]

Ah, great, I've found it.

I'm not good at maps, but I've calculated the EV's for Iowa counties (but I used a house of 436... since for EC purposes that's basically what we've got). And now I'll count out the result.

[minionofmidas]

KERRY WINS!

Either by 271-267 (original size of EC)
or by 330-304 (436 + 2 per county, of which Iowa has exactly 99).

[they don't love you like i love you]

It'd be interesting to do this for Minnesota, although I have no doubt Bush would win, since he won those inner suburban counties by narrow margins. Mondale would've probably won the 2002 Senate race under this though.

[minionofmidas]

It'd be interesting to do this for Minnesota, although I have no doubt Bush would win, since he won those inner suburban counties by narrow margins.

I guess, yeah. Minnesota and perhaps New Mexico are the states that'd be the most interesting to do. Everywhere else either has no chance of switching, except for New Hampshire and Nevada, which obviously switch. (Rep Hillsborough and Rockingham have over half the population of NH, and weren't even the only Rep counties. Dem Clark has over two-thirds of Nevada.)

[minionofmidas]

32 Dem counties' EVs (ordered by EV no and alphabet)
Polk 45 / 57
Linn 24 / 30
Scott 20 / 25
Black Hawk 17 / 21
Johnson 15 / 18
Dubuque 12 / 15
Story 11 / 14
Clinton 8 / 9
Cerro Gordo 7 / 9
Des Moines, Muscatine, Webster 7 / 8
Jasper, Lee 6 / 8
Wapello 6 / 7
Benton, Boone 5 / 6
Fayette 5
Buchanan, Clayton, Floyd, Jackson, Jones, Poweshiek, Tama, Winneshiek 4 / 5
Chickasaw, Jefferson 4
Howard, Mitchell 3 / 4
Clarke, Worth 3

67 Rep counties' EVs (same)
Woodbury 14 / 17
Pottawattamie 12 / 15
Dallas, Marshall, Warren 7 / 8
Marion, Sioux 6 / 7
Plymouth 5 / 6
Bremer, Carroll, Mahaska 5
Buena Vista, Cedar, Clay, Crawford, Delaware, Hardin, Henry, Kossuth, Page, Washington 4 / 5
Allamakee, Appanoose, Butler, Cass, Cherokee, Dickinson, Grundy, Hamilton, Harrison, Iowa, Madison, Mills, O'Brien, Shelby, Union, Wright 4
Calhoun, Emmet, Franklin, Greene, Guthrie, Hancock, Humboldt, Keokuk, Louisa, Lyon, Monona, Montgomery, Palo Alto, Sac, Winnebago 3 / 4
Adair, Adams, Audubon, Davis, Decatur, Fremont, Ida, Lucas, Monroe, Osceola, Pocahontas, Ringgold, Taylor, Van Buren, Wayne 3

I notice that, after highly marginal Woodbury, the next five Rep counties by size are five of the six counties in the state that I'd classify as suburban (Sioux is smaller than Marion. The sixth county is Democratic Jasper. Not sure whether "suburban" really fits Marshall.)

[Kevinstat]

KERRY WINS!

Either by 271-267 (original size of EC)
or by 330-304 (436 + 2 per county, of which Iowa has exactly 99).

Since there are only 435 U.S. Representatives in Congress (I'm sure the 436th "House" elector is for D.C.'s U.S. Representative it would have if it were a state) and Iowa doesn't have an eqivalent to D.C. (the state capital is in the largest county in the state and I'm sure it has significant weight in the Legislature, if not that key to the ballance of power because of it's strong fealty to the Democrats - although I wouldn't be surprised if some of the suburbs within Polk County are Republican or competitive), could you tell me which county would gets the 436th Congressman or state representative under equal proportions and who carried that county, and thus what the result would be with one fewer "lower house elector"?