Bush Wins Wisconsin Electoral Vote!

[minionofmidas]

LOL! This is a nice bit of work. And so completely pointless. I love it. Honestly.

[minionofmidas]

Iowa has lots of rather narrowly Dem counties, including some with large populations, and a few ultra-Rep areas in the Northeast.
It was also very close.
Do a map of Iowa, Beef. Or I'll send my grandfather to Wisconsin, who's still quite active and bubbly but unfortunately getting rather demented of late.

[minionofmidas]

Ah, great, I've found it.

I'm not good at maps, but I've calculated the EV's for Iowa counties (but I used a house of 436... since for EC purposes that's basically what we've got). And now I'll count out the result.

[minionofmidas]

KERRY WINS!

Either by 271-267 (original size of EC)
or by 330-304 (436 + 2 per county, of which Iowa has exactly 99).

[minionofmidas]

It'd be interesting to do this for Minnesota, although I have no doubt Bush would win, since he won those inner suburban counties by narrow margins.

I guess, yeah. Minnesota and perhaps New Mexico are the states that'd be the most interesting to do. Everywhere else either has no chance of switching, except for New Hampshire and Nevada, which obviously switch. (Rep Hillsborough and Rockingham have over half the population of NH, and weren't even the only Rep counties. Dem Clark has over two-thirds of Nevada.)

[minionofmidas]

32 Dem counties' EVs (ordered by EV no and alphabet)
Polk 45 / 57
Linn 24 / 30
Scott 20 / 25
Black Hawk 17 / 21
Johnson 15 / 18
Dubuque 12 / 15
Story 11 / 14
Clinton 8 / 9
Cerro Gordo 7 / 9
Des Moines, Muscatine, Webster 7 / 8
Jasper, Lee 6 / 8
Wapello 6 / 7
Benton, Boone 5 / 6
Fayette 5
Buchanan, Clayton, Floyd, Jackson, Jones, Poweshiek, Tama, Winneshiek 4 / 5
Chickasaw, Jefferson 4
Howard, Mitchell 3 / 4
Clarke, Worth 3

67 Rep counties' EVs (same)
Woodbury 14 / 17
Pottawattamie 12 / 15
Dallas, Marshall, Warren 7 / 8
Marion, Sioux 6 / 7
Plymouth 5 / 6
Bremer, Carroll, Mahaska 5
Buena Vista, Cedar, Clay, Crawford, Delaware, Hardin, Henry, Kossuth, Page, Washington 4 / 5
Allamakee, Appanoose, Butler, Cass, Cherokee, Dickinson, Grundy, Hamilton, Harrison, Iowa, Madison, Mills, O'Brien, Shelby, Union, Wright 4
Calhoun, Emmet, Franklin, Greene, Guthrie, Hancock, Humboldt, Keokuk, Louisa, Lyon, Monona, Montgomery, Palo Alto, Sac, Winnebago 3 / 4
Adair, Adams, Audubon, Davis, Decatur, Fremont, Ida, Lucas, Monroe, Osceola, Pocahontas, Ringgold, Taylor, Van Buren, Wayne 3

I notice that, after highly marginal Woodbury, the next five Rep counties by size are five of the six counties in the state that I'd classify as suburban (Sioux is smaller than Marion. The sixth county is Democratic Jasper. Not sure whether "suburban" really fits Marshall.)

[minionofmidas]

Since there are only 435 U.S. Representatives in Congress (I'm sure the 436th "House" elector is for D.C.'s U.S. Representative it would have if it were a state)

It's because the US EC has 436 electors + 2 electors per state/state equivalent. It's also because I dug up the thread after calculating the numbers -  had I been aware that Beef used 435, I'd have calculated that one. I can't tell you right now, but I can go check.

[minionofmidas]

If I counted right, Bush wins 347 - 257.

[minionofmidas]

Since there are only 435 U.S. Representatives in Congress (I'm sure the 436th "House" elector is for D.C.'s U.S. Representative it would have if it were a state)

It's because the US EC has 436 electors + 2 electors per state/state equivalent. It's also because I dug up the thread after calculating the numbers -  had I been aware that Beef used 435, I'd have calculated that one. I can't tell you right now, but I can go check.

Jasper (D)

[minionofmidas]

Why not just use the actual apportionment method?

[minionofmidas]

Nvm. I'll do it. I got a spreadsheet.

[minionofmidas]

(435+2 per county / 538 total. 436 +2 extra seat goes to Stearns.)

Dem -
Hennepin 99 / 82
Ramsey 46 / 39
Saint Louis 19 / 16
Blue Earth, Rice 7 / 6
Winona 6
Itasca 6 / 5
Beltrami, Mower 5
Carlton, Freeborn, Nicollet 5 / 4
Fillmore, Pine 4
Big Stone, Chippewa, Cook, Kittson, Koochiching, Lac qui Parle, Lake, Mahnomen, Norman, Swift 3

Rep -
Dakota 33 / 28
Anoka 28 / 23
Washington 19 / 16
Stearns 13 (14) / 12
Olmsted 13 / 11
Scott, Wright 10 / 8
Carver, Sherburne 8 / 7
Crow Wing, Otter Tail 7 / 6
Clay 6
Chisago, Goodhue, Kandiyohi 6 / 5
Benton, McLeod 5
Becker, Douglas, Isanti, Morrison, Polk, Steele 5 / 4
Brown, Cass, Houston, Le Sueur, Lyon, Martin, Meeker, Mille Lacs, Nobles, Todd, Wabasha 4
Dodge, Hubbard, Redwood, Renville, Waseca 4 / 3
Aitkin, Clearwater, Cottonwood, Faribault, Grant, Jackson, Kanabec, Lake of the Woods, Lincoln, Marshall, Murray, Pennington, Pipestone, Pope, Red Lake, Rock, Roseau, Sibley, Stevens, Traverse, Wadena, Watonwan, Wilkin, Yellow Medicine 3

So, 253 to 356 or 357 / 220 to 318. Quite the convincing Republican victory.

[minionofmidas]

Could someone do this nationally?  If the number of electoral votes were based on counties, with the smallest counties all getting three, and Los Angeles getting 65463516541 votes, it would be cool to see, even though it'd be a huge Republican victory.

There are more counties than seats to distribute, so it can't be done without fixing on a new and massively larger house size first.