If Fundies take over in Egypt and attempt to shut down the Suez Canal...

[dead0man]

Kind of "worst case" type of thing.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

lol, you're bored.

[Middle-aged Europe]

I thought the worst case scenario was that the Egyptian Army starts a full-scale invasion of Israel through the Gaza Strip?

[dead0man]

I thought the worst case scenario was that the Egyptian Army starts a full-scale invasion of Israel through the Gaza Strip?

(I assume the smiley means you're kidding...but just in case )

Nah...several reasons:
A.Fundies can't fly F16s very well
2.without US support/resupply, their equipment wouldn't last a week
III.despite Egyptian using a lot of US equipment nowadays, Israeli gear is still better
D.even if for some strange reason the current Egyptian military stays on with the Fundies in full (not likely), Israel's armed forces are better trained

I'm not saying it would be a cake walk for Israel, but it would be much easier than '73 (or '67 or '48).

[Antonio the Sixth]

Last time we tried, it didn't end up very well if I remember correctly.

[Person Man]

Last time we tried, it didn't end up very well if I remember correctly.

That was when the Soviet Union threatened to nuke France and Britian in 1956. I don't think that's really applicable today. I'm pretty sure that we could force it open and I am pretty sure that if there was a war, Israel would probably regain the Sinai penisula and maybe even occupy the Suez canal. I vote, "Yes", by the way.

[opebo]

What the world needs to do in order to keep it open is have Obama call Hosni Mubarak, tell him privately to do whatever is necessary to maintain control, and send him about 3 billion in cash in small bills to help out.

We need to stop with this nonsense about 'what the people want'.  We need to get oil out, without oil we die.  Mubarak is a bulwark.   I'm all for abandoning support for Isreal, but we need the Arab leaders there who kept the Islamists in check, like Saddam.

[Person Man]

The point is that there will always be violence as long as these dictators are around, whether they are the ones causing or whether they are the ones preventing it. Its like trying to train a coyote to guard your chicken coup in an area known for its cougars.

[opebo]

The point is that there will always be violence as long as these dictators are around, whether they are the ones causing or whether they are the ones preventing it. Its like trying to train a coyote to guard your chicken coup in an area known for its cougars.

Not at all.  Mubarak and his ilk never attack US interests any more than the Old Man did here.  They guard the chicken coop very well.

[Person Man]

I wonder what turns a Mubarak into a Hussein then.

[opebo]

I wonder what turns a Mubarak into a Hussein then.

Mistakes on the part of the USA.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I wonder what turns a Mubarak into a Hussein then.

When we discover that our oil fields are under his country.

[opebo]

I wonder what turns a Mubarak into a Hussein then.

When we discover that our oil fields are under his country.

That's really not a fair depiction.  In many cases we maintain right-wing dictators or monarchs in oil-rich countries as well.  Hussein wasn't lost because of the discovery of oil (knowledge of which long predated him), but for other reasons I confess I don't know enough about to elucidate.  Suffice it to say he wasn't managed well - a valuable resource gone to waste.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I wonder what turns a Mubarak into a Hussein then.

When we discover that our oil fields are under his country.

That's really not a fair depiction.  In many cases we maintain right-wing dictators or monarchs in oil-rich countries as well.  Hussein wasn't lost because of the discovery of oil (knowledge of which long predated him), but for other reasons I confess I don't know enough about to elucidate.  Suffice it to say he wasn't managed well - a valuable resource gone to waste.

If they sell us oil at rates that we like, they are suddenly great protectors of democracy, like the House of Saud.

[Silent Hunter]

Kind of "worst case" type of thing.

We'll cross that bridge if we come to it.

[opebo]

Kind of "worst case" type of thing.

We'll cross that bridge if we come to it.

We'll be crossing it post-haste if our stalward Mukdahan isn't preserved.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Doubtful that Egypt would shut down the Canal under any circumstances.  They might decide to bar passage of military ships which would hinder the US Navy somewhat, but I can't see them declining the tolls they get from the passage of oil tankers connecting Arabia and Europe.

[Silent Hunter]

Doubtful that Egypt would shut down the Canal under any circumstances.

Actually, they shut it between 1967 and 1975 due to the Six Day War.

[Хahar 🤔]

No, Israel will take care of that.

[afleitch]

No, Israel will take care of that.

^^^^

If anything close to an Iran (or Iran-lite) is the end result of an Egyptian revolution Israel will, if it needs to roll straight on through the the Suez (and possibly beyond.)

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, another silly invasion war is exactly what we need now...

[Person Man]

No, Israel will take care of that.

^^^^

If anything close to an Iran (or Iran-lite) is the end result of an Egyptian revolution Israel will, if it needs to roll straight on through the the Suez (and possibly beyond.)

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Doubtful that Egypt would shut down the Canal under any circumstances.

Actually, they shut it between 1967 and 1975 due to the Six Day War.

That was because of a combination of damage it had taken during the war, and its being used as a defensive barrier at the time.  In any case, it was more like Israel shut it down and Egypt didn't try too hard to reopen it until it was safe to do so. I can't see an Israeli-reoccupation of the Sinai happening without another war.

[J. J.]

Kind of "worst case" type of thing.

We'll cross that bridge if we come to it.

I'd suggest before we come to it, or we won't have the gas to cross it.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Kind of "worst case" type of thing.

We'll cross that bridge if we come to it.

I'd suggest before we come to it, or we won't have the gas to cross it.

About 2% of the world's crude oil supply flows through Egypt on its way somewhere else (about half via the canal and half via the SuMed pipeline that was built because of the closure of the canal after the Six Day War.  As far as crude oil is concerned, it would be a mild inconvenience until trade routes adjust as Middle Eastern oil would end up redirected to East Asia, the portion of Alaskan oil that usually goes to East Asia would head here, and Europe would get oil that normally comes to the US from South America and Africa.

Closing the canal would actually hurt the Middle East and South Asia more than us infidel Americans and Europeans because it would interrupt the flow of refined oil products that goes through the canal when the tankers head home.