MI-Mitchell Research & Communications: Romney ahead

[Tender Branson]

28% Romney
15% Huckabee
10% Paul
10% Palin
  6% Christie
  3% Daniels
  3% Rubio
  1% Pawlenty
  1% Thune
22% Undecided

The telephone poll of 600 likely voters was conducted Dec. 30 and Jan. 2-4. There were 251 respondents who identified themselves as Republicans, and the margin of error for that sub-sample is plus or minus 6 percent, Mitchell said in a news release.

From The Detroit News: http://detnews.com/article/20110128/POLITICS02/101280407/Romney-tops-state-GOP-poll-on-presidential-hopefuls#ixzz1CXyRXIHC

[Tender Branson]

This is the current map with all recent polls and leaders:

Huckabee -> Light Blue
Romney -> Red
Palin -> Pink
Gingrich -> Dark Blue
Pawlenty -> Green

Next up: Arizona and South Carolina

[Tender Branson]

I think Huckabee will lead the SC poll by PPP that's coming out this week.

If they include DeMint, DeMint will be in a toss-up with Huckabee - with Gingrich, Palin, Romney further behind.

Romney should still lead in AZ, by about 5-10 points.

[Mr. Morden]

This is the current map with all recent polls and leaders:

Huckabee -> Light Blue
Romney -> Red
Palin -> Pink
Gingrich -> Dark Blue
Pawlenty -> Green

Next up: Arizona and South Carolina

Is the SC poll on your map the one from PPP way back in May?  Because there's also the more recent CNN exit poll of SC in November, which had Palin up by 1:

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2010/11/03/exit-polls-enough-about-the-campaign-–-let’s-talk-about-the-campaign/

[Tender Branson]

Is the SC poll on your map the one from PPP way back in May?  Because there's also the more recent CNN exit poll of SC in November, which had Palin up by 1:

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2010/11/03/exit-polls-enough-about-the-campaign-–-let’s-talk-about-the-campaign/

Yes, I used the May 2010 PPP poll for SC.

I didn't know that there was an Exit Poll for SC that involved the GOP primary.

But this week we'll get new numbers anyway.

[Niemeyerite]

I don't think romney is leading by that margin.. and pawlenty isn't ant 1%. this poll is bullsh**t.

[SvenssonRS]

Paul is tied with Palin? Jesus.

[Mr. Morden]

They were the second most accurate pollster in the 2008 Michigan primary (after Mason-Dixon).  Of course, there were only a total of five polling firms who polled it in the last four days before the primary, and two of them were ARG and Zogby.....

[Yelnoc]

They were the second most accurate pollster in the 2008 Michigan primary (after Mason-Dixon).  Of course, there were only a total of five polling firms who polled it in the last four days before the primary, and two of them were ARG and Zogby.....

Meaning that there were only three polling companies and this one was the so-so one.

[Mr. Morden]

Well, their final poll had Romney leading McCain by 6, with Huckabee in 3rd place and 17 points behind McCain.

Actual result was Romney beating McCain by 9, with Huckabee in 3rd place and 14 points behind McCain.

I'd say that's not bad, especially given how fluid primary races can be.

[California8429]

This is very screwed up, Gingrich (who's double digits around the country) isn't included, but Christie and Rubio are...who both are NOT running? - _ - Why can't we have more competent polling!

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Calm down, A-bob. They were still including Jeb Bush, George Pataki and a bunch of others at this point that were just crazy in Jan 2007.

[California8429]

Calm down, A-bob. They were still including Jeb Bush, George Pataki and a bunch of others at this point that were just crazy in Jan 2007.

But Romney and Brownback were included, even Gingrich