What states ...

[Tender Branson]

are now left that a Democrat last won in 1964 ?

Because PPP writes:

We found Obama up 8 on Palin in a state Dems haven't won since 1964. Strongest evidence of Goldwater redux yet. Tell you where tomorrow.

http://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/32096387327860736

[Tender Branson]

IIRC, Arizona was won by Clinton once and South Carolina by Carter.

So it won't be any of these states that PPP has polled this weekend.

What do you guess is the state ?

South Dakota ?

[Brittain33]

Could it be Alaska?

If it were based on which of the LBJ states is most worthy of polling, it would be North Dakota, because of the open Senate race. Although I think Palin leads Obama in Montana...

[Tender Branson]

By my count the states are:

Alaska
Idaho
Utah
Wyoming
North Dakota
South Dakota
Nebraska
Kansas
Oklahoma

Did I miss something ?

I guess it's either Alaska (LOL, but possible after the Miller fiasco) or South Dakota, where Palin now trails by 8 points.

All other states seem to be a lock for her, and ND cannot be polled by PPP because they ban Robo-Polls.

[Tender Branson]

Could it be Alaska?

If it were based on which of the LBJ states is most worthy of polling, it would be North Dakota, because of the open Senate race. Although I think Palin leads Obama in Montana...

Montana was once won by Bill Clinton, so we can rule this state out.

PPP once said that they cannot poll North Dakota because robo-polls are only allowed in the state when they are introduced by a live-interviewer - which is more costly. Maybe they paid it on their own to get an early look at the Senate race though ...

[Brittain33]

Could it be Alaska?

If it were based on which of the LBJ states is most worthy of polling, it would be North Dakota, because of the open Senate race. Although I think Palin leads Obama in Montana...

Montana was once won by Bill Clinton, so we can rule this state out.

I know, I was raising it for possible predictive value for the Dakotas as a state that went more narrowly for McCain than either ND or SD and yet is polling for Palin over Obama. Caveats being that I don't recall if that was a PPP poll, and Montana isn't that similar to the Dakotas.

[Tender Branson]

I'd bet a good amount of money on Alaska.

After the Miller debacle, in which the Palin-backed candidate is now seen as a sore loser, Palin is surely tied to Miller in the voters minds and that could have dragged down her image in the state and with that her support against Obama.

[BlueSwan]

I'd definitely go with one of the Dakotas.

Which reminds me of this awesome tune: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iUHjDJxkcSE

[pbrower2a]

are now left that a Democrat last won in 1964 ?

Because PPP writes:

We found Obama up 8 on Palin in a state Dems haven't won since 1964. Strongest evidence of Goldwater redux yet. Tell you where tomorrow.

http://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/32096387327860736

Alaska
Idaho
Kansas
Nebraska (except NE-02)
North Dakota
Oklahoma
South Dakota
Utah
Wyoming


After NE-01 (if you are looking for electoral votes -- that's eastern Nebraska except for Greater Omaha, the other district being the thinly-populated central and western parts of the state), North Dakota looks like the most likely such state  to go for Obama because John Thune could be the Republican nominee.

Utah -- if the Republican nominee is crass enough to say something stupid about the LDS Church. Considering the quality of some of the GOP candidates, I can less rule that out than I can rule out Barack Obama converting to Mormonism.

[Oakvale]

It would be absolutely hilarious if it was Alaska. And it's probably either there or, I guess, South Dakota.

[°Leprechaun]

Here is a chart of states
that haven't gone for a Democrat
since 1964.

rank      last time won
in                by a Democrat
2008           prior to 1964
      
      
1  Oklahoma   1948
2  Wyoming   1948
3  Utah      1948
4  Idaho      1948

6  Alaska     1964 only time

11 Nebraska   1936
12 Kansas   1936
18 South Dakota   1936
19 North Dakota   1936

Therefore, a win by a Democrat of any of these states would be noteworthy.

[Niemeyerite]

I think the state is Nebraska.

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

I'm gonna say Nebraska is the state.

Now if we were including the not-since-Carter states, South Carolina would be the most likely.

[Brittain33]

I'm sticking with Alaska.

[Oakvale]

Well it's not Nebraska...

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2011/01/obamapalin-competitive-in-nebraska.html

Although Palin only leads Obama by 1 there, haha. Most interestingly, it looks like Obama'd win NE-2 fairly easily, although IIRC the Republicans are getting rid of the electoral vote splitting thing.

[Grumpier Than Thou]

It's gotta be one of the Dakotas.

[DS0816]

My guess: South Dakota. North Dakota, by a little less. Kansas and Nebraska around the tipping point (or less than 5 points past it).

[pbrower2a]

Sarah Palin is shown 'winning' Nebraska 45-44. That is a virtual tie, and it wouldn't take much of an effort for President Obama or a fade by Sarah Palin to win the state from her. At that point a bunch of other states are going to President Obama in an electoral blowout. 

[pbrower2a]

This is about 1964 redux would look like in 2012: 

Obama vs. Palin

Obama 488
Palin       50

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

I'm guessing Alaska. Palin had lost her popularity there even before Miller, and several polls have shown her only in fourth place in primary polling of Alaska, so...



 

[they don't love you like i love you]

Yeah, smart man's bet would be Alaska. LOL.

[albaleman]

Alaska.

[Psychic Octopus]

Alaska, but one of the Dakotas are even money, IMO.

Palin only leads Obama by 1 in Nebraska? Joke candidate.

[albaleman]

It's South Dakota.

[Tender Branson]

I'd bet a good amount of money on Alaska.

That would have sucked ...