Which is greater?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

?

[Yelnoc]

Dos.

[Bull Moose Base]

The odds that Hillary would become the nominee, at the end of January 2008, were still greater than the current odds Palin becomes the nominee.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'd say Palin has an at least 80% chance of being the nominee.

[Keystone Phil]

I'd say Palin has an at least 80% chance of being the nominee.

Please never argue that you are intelligent. Ever.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'd say Palin has an at least 80% chance of being the nominee.

Please never argue that you are intelligent. Ever.

OK Mr. "Hillary is going to be your nominee so deal with it circa 2007".

I should clarify, she has an 80% chance if she runs. But if she does, who's going to stop her?

[Keystone Phil]

I should clarify, she has an 80% chance if she runs. But if she does, who's going to stop her?

Oh, maybe one of the three people that consistently either lead her or barely trail her in the national and state polls.

[memphis]

It's much too early to tell. The nomination so often comes down to how many candidates run and who can win a plurality in the early states. It's not like McCain was a popular choice with the GOP in 2008. If I had to pick a favorite at this point, it'd be her because her supporters are so crazed, but so much can happen between now and then.

[Lunar]

I'd say Palin has an at least 80% chance of being the nominee.

Please never argue that you are intelligent. Ever.

OK Mr. "Hillary is going to be your nominee so deal with it circa 2007".

I should clarify, she has an 80% chance if she runs. But if she does, who's going to stop her?

Herself, most likely.  A competent candidate could do a lot in Palin's position, but Palin is fundamentally unfocused and disorganized, not to mention vindictive and often unable to see the big picture.

edit: and she's a trainwreck in unscripted situations

[Mr. Taft Republican]

After "WTF moments"gate, I'm willing to believe Hillary could win a write-in campaign for presidency rather than Palin actually be the nominee.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Obviously the latter: Hillary was considered a lock for the nomination until probably late November of 2007.

Palin starts off with high name recognition and a highly devoted base of support, but it will be very difficult for her to win over anyone who isn't already supporting her. She has a lot of baggage and several huge negatives, which will be compounded by the fact that she obviously won't be the only far right/Tea Party candidate running.

[tmthforu94]

Republicans have made some stupid decisions in the past (Delaware 2010), but I think we're underestimating the Republican electorate just a tad. Perhaps Palin would win if it was her vs. several moderates, but that's not how it's going to be. There will certainly be several more candidates associated with the Tea Party who will siphon support from Governor Palin. The public will be watching her every move even more than it does now, and considering the amount of gaffes she already makes, I expect her to go down in flames. She might make it to Iowa, but I can't see her running a strong enough campaign to actually win the nomination.

[Keystone Phil]

This could go down as one of the most laughable polls in forum history.

[anvi]

If Palin wins the GOP nomination in 2012, I will make a video and post it on Youtube of me eating my hat.  I pledge that solemnly without any worries I'll have to do it.  Hillary had better odds of winning the Democratic nomination even in May, '08 than Palin will ever have of winning the GOP's.

[Eraserhead]

I'd say Palin has an at least 80% chance of being the nominee.

Eh... why exactly? She has a very vocal following but their numbers only seem to be dwindling these days.

[Likely Voter]

Now that Pence is out, Palin has a chance, but only if Huckabee doesnt run. But even then she would probably still have less of a chance than Romney.

Still voted for the Hillary choice in the above poll

[Grumpier Than Thou]

This is awfully evident. Republicans don't even like Palin, as is being shown in polls.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'd say Palin has an at least 80% chance of being the nominee.

Eh... why exactly? She has a very vocal following but their numbers only seem to be dwindling these days.

Who else has a following? A boring already rejected Mormon who hasn't been in office for six years when the election rolls around? The extremely dull guy I had to put up with for 8 years? A boring Governor of a boring state with no notable accomplishments who is also a former Bush Cabinet member?

[Bull Moose Base]

Lunar's is the best assessment.  Right now she has high favorables and is still a popular second-choice candidate.  But relevant "Which is greater?" question for a Palin campaign is "Is her putting herself out there for a campaign more likely to quell or exacerbate voters' doubts about her?". Answer: blood-libel

[Mr. Morden]

Not that Intrade represents reality, but just for fun, Intrade's probability for:

Clinton winning the nomination as of Jan. 31, 2007: 46.7
Clinton winning the nomination as of Jan. 29, 2008: 59.0
Palin winning the nomination as of today: 11.0

[RogueBeaver]

Except Clinton was a certain candidate, Palin is almost certainly not.

[America™]

I'd say Palin has an at least 80% chance of being the nominee.

And I will fly on my unicorn chariot to the convention.