2016: Gore/Schweizer vs. Christie/Rubio

Obama enter Election Day 2012 with a 54% approval rating and wins reelection easily (around 300 EV's) against an unusally underperforming GOP opponent. Obama's 2nd term goes remarkly well--the economy continues to improve and the situations in Afghanistan, Iran, and North Korea all look better than they did at the end of 2010. Obama's major legislative accomplishments in his second term include education and energy which appeal to his young, liberal base.

In 2015, however, the economy begins to show signs of weakening. Unemployemnt increases by about 2% over 18 months and the DOW Jones falls about 10% in the same time period. Inflation (due to the high debt) has eaten away at the value of the dollar. Even worse, China and the United States start an all out trade war.

By the summer of 2015 the following Democratic candidates announce:
1) Former Sec. of State, Hillary Clinton
2) Former Wisconsin Senator, Russ Feingold
3) Virginia Senator, Jim Webb
4) Former Vice President and Environmental Activist, Al Gore
5) New York Senator, Kristen Gillibrand

Hillary Clinton is the early frontrunner due to “political superstar” status. However, her campaign begins to falter due to her age and she is unable to campaign effectively because of her poor health. Even worse, her husband suffers from a mild stroke in December 2015 which takes off the campaign trail for a few weeks before the first primaries.

Russ Feingold goes on to squeak out a narrow victory over Clinton in the Iowa Caucus. However, Clinton comes back with strong victories in both the New Hampshire and Michigan primaries. Despite all of this, the biggest surprise is Al Gore who wins decisive victories in Nevada and South Carolina and then goes on to win a plurality of the vote in Florida. Gore clinches the nomination by winning most of the Super Tuesday contests. Clinton is the first to drop out and endorses Gore, just a few days later Feingold does the same. Gore is nominated on the first ballot and the Democratic Convention in Phoenix.

2016 Republic Candidates
1) New Jersey governor, Chris Christie
2) Florida Senator, Marco Rubio
3) Kentucky Senator, Rand Paul
4) Indiana governor, Mike Pence
5) South Caroline governor, Nikki Haley
6) Former Alaska governor and 2008 vice-presidential candidate, Sarah Palin

Palin, due to her name recognition, leads in many early polls. However, Christie quickly becomes the “establishment’s favorite” and destroys Palin (who has too much baggage). Christie wins the contests in IA and NH without incident. Sarah Palin picks up SC while Marco Rubio wins his home state, FL, and Rand Paul finishes at the top in NV. Christie clinches the nomination on the night of the OH and TX primaries and is nominated on the first ballot at the convention in Seattle.

The general election will be a match up between Albert Gore (D) and Chris Christie (R).

Christie attacks Gore for being a “relic of the past” who does not have the vision to move the nation forward nor the expertise to jumpstart the economy. Christie claims to be the “managerial president” who fixed New Jersey’s economic problems and can thus fix yours! In late July he announces the Sen. Rubio will be his running mate, a move that will hopefully guarantee him Florida--a state Gore wants so desperately to win.

Gore makes an issue out of climate change but also manages to hammer Christie on foreign policy. His campaign is running “smart” says Politico and he has built a coalition of young liberals that looks a lot like the recipe Obama used for his ’08 victory. He manages to tip-toe around economic issues by avoiding issues like the Bush tax cuts and spending freezes. He attacks Christie for looking out for only the interests of “Big Business” during his tenure of governor. Gore waits until the Convention to announce his VP pick. He selected Brian Schweitzer the young, charismatic governor of Montana.

Throughout the early falls polls seesaw back and forth. However, Christie seems to have an advantage in most of the swing states due to the weak economy. NJ, PA, and FL are all polling consistently for Christie. Gore as been trying to win the west--he leads polls in NV, CO, and NM. Nevada is within the MoE.

On election day unemployment is at 7.5% and Obama’s approvals are 44%. Who wins? Discuss with maps!

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