My predictions

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

*Obama will face a primary challenge, but a non-serious one from Alvin Greene and/or Lyndon LaRouche.
*Mitt Romney will get the nomination after a brutal, drawn-out primary with Huckabee.
*Romney will pick Louisiana governor Bobby Jindal to be his running mate.
*Jindal will provide an actual boost to the campaign unlike Palin.
*Obama wins the presidential debates, Jindal wins the vice-presidential debate.
*By election night, Obama's approval rating is about 53%, while unemployment is between 7 and 8%.
*Obama wins by a slightly larger margin than in 2008, losing Indiana but picking up Missouri and one of the following: Montana, Arizona, Georgia.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Arizona maybe, but Georgia is staying Republican, if Jindall is the VP. I think its going to be a little bit closer then 2008, a repeat of 2004.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

And plus, Romney is the strongest of the GOP candidates for Arizona also. He won't keep it as GOP as McCain's favorite son status but it he will have a few extra points than it otherwise would be with no side margin adjustments.

[TomC]

*Obama will face a primary challenge, but a non-serious one from Alvin Greene and/or Lyndon LaRouche.

Agreed, but not sure "challenge" is the right word.

*Mitt Romney will get the nomination after a brutal, drawn-out primary with Huckabee.

Huckabee will get the nomination after a brutal, drawn out primary with Romney.

*Romney will pick Louisiana governor Bobby Jindal to be his running mate.

Huckabee will pick former Governer Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota to be his running mate

*Jindal will provide an actual boost to the campaign unlike Palin.

Pawlenty will cause pundits to call the midwest a huge battleground part of the nation

*Obama wins the presidential debates, Jindal wins the vice-presidential debate.

Wile people think Huckabee is more personable and folksy in the debates, the President just seems more Presidential. No one watches the Vice  Presidential debates except the people who are paid to comment on them. Nine months later, a spike in births is noticeable.

*By election night, Obama's approval rating is about 53%, while unemployment is between 7 and 8%.

56% approval, 8.1 % UNEMP

*Obama wins by a slightly larger margin than in 2008, losing Indiana but picking up Missouri and one of the following: Montana, Arizona, Georgia.

Slightly lower in electoral, Loses Ind, NC. Mo. by a larger margin than 08. Wins Arizona and Montana

[TomC]

Huck red, Rom blue, ignore shading

[Mehmentum]

If I'd make my completely off the wall prediction, Huckabee wins the nomination after a long drawn out battle with Romney, and nominates Jon Hunstman as his VP.

Huntsman dominates the VP debate, but Obama defeats Huckabee by appearing more 'presidential'.

Obama has an approval of 53%, with about with 7-8% unemployment.

Obama wins around 55-56% of the vote. He looses Indiana, but wins Montana, Arizona, and maayybe North Dakota.  All others stay the same, except Nebraska, which goes to winner take all.

[TomC]

Huntsman w/ Huckabee- that's a great pairing!

[tmthforu94]

The field is crowded, but after the leadoff states, it quickly becomes a contest between Huckabee, Romney, and Gingrich. Following the Ohio plan, Romney gains considerable momentum following the small states, and it leads him to the nomination. Gingrich drops out after mid-February.

Map:

[milhouse24]

Its always great to see non-christian Dems make predictions about Republicans!!! 

It might very well be Romney eventually, but he still loses the primaries in Iowa and South Carolina. 

Thune is the darkhorse.  Barbour is the darkhorse.  Those 2 will have the strongest showings in the primaries depending on how Palin does.

[exopolitician]

Thune emerges as a darkhorse and steals the nomination from Romney. He chooses Daniels as his running mate.

Obama/Biden: 264
Thune/Daniels: 220
Tossup: 54

[Mr. Morden]

Following the Ohio plan, Romney gains considerable momentum following the small states, and it leads him to the nomination.

You're predicting a parallel universe in which the RNC has adopted the Ohio plan, and state legislatures go along with it?

[Niemeyerite]

*Obama will face a primary challenge, but a non-serious one from Alvin Greene and/or Lyndon LaRouche.

Agreed, but not sure "challenge" is the right word.

*Mitt Romney will get the nomination after a brutal, drawn-out primary with Huckabee.

Huckabee will get the nomination after a brutal, drawn out primary with Romney.

*Romney will pick Louisiana governor Bobby Jindal to be his running mate.

Huckabee will pick former Governer Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota to be his running mate

*Jindal will provide an actual boost to the campaign unlike Palin.

Pawlenty will cause pundits to call the midwest a huge battleground part of the nation

*Obama wins the presidential debates, Jindal wins the vice-presidential debate.

Wile people think Huckabee is more personable and folksy in the debates, the President just seems more Presidential. No one watches the Vice  Presidential debates except the people who are paid to comment on them. Nine months later, a spike in births is noticeable.

*By election night, Obama's approval rating is about 53%, while unemployment is between 7 and 8%.

56% approval, 8.1 % UNEMP

*Obama wins by a slightly larger margin than in 2008, losing Indiana but picking up Missouri and one of the following: Montana, Arizona, Georgia.

Slightly lower in electoral, Loses Ind, NC. Mo. by a larger margin than 08. Wins Arizona and Montana

I agree with almost everything, but IMO; obama takes NC and MO

[BlueSwan]

Thune emerges as a darkhorse and steals the nomination from Romney. He chooses Daniels as his running mate.

Obama/Biden: 264
Thune/Daniels: 220
Tossup: 54

I could see this happen, but I think Iowa leans Obama.

[Bull Moose Base]

Is there any basis to think Obama will do better than 2008 in some states while worse in others?  I'm not buying that Arizona favorite son thing was strong enough.  It wasn't that close in 08.  If Obama wins it, safe bet he's already won all his 08 states.

[Skill and Chance]

Is there any basis to think Obama will do better than 2008 in some states while worse in others?  I'm not buying that Arizona favorite son thing was strong enough.  It wasn't that close in 08.  If Obama wins it, safe bet he's already won all his 08 states.

Well there are demographic issues and local factors.  I agree with you about AZ.  Among the swing states, I could see IN being substantially more R even when holding margin constant, and NC being substantially more Dem if he exactly repeated the 2008 popular vote (Demographic change plus Dems working NC hard and GOP waking up in IN).  Also, there is basically no chance of a rematch with McCain, so whoever the GOP nominee is will have a different base within the party.  Mitt Romney would do better in the Mountain West and probably New England, and Huckabee should do better in the South.   

[RogueBeaver]

I agree with Snow except for the following: Romney's main rival will be Newt Gingrich or Haley Barbour, and Obama will lose Indiana and North Carolina.

[exopolitician]

Thune emerges as a darkhorse and steals the nomination from Romney. He chooses Daniels as his running mate.

Obama/Biden: 264
Thune/Daniels: 220
Tossup: 54

I could see this happen, but I think Iowa leans Obama.

I feel like Thune is one of those candidates that could turn Iowa around, but as of right now yeah Iowa leans Obama.

[Reaganfan]

Romney wins nomination. Selects Rick Santorum as his running mate. Romney wins or atleast draws Obama in the debates. Santorum wins over Biden.

Unemployment will be key. If its near 9% or higher, Obama loses. If it's lower, he wins.

[TomC]

Prediction: If Mitt Romney is the Republican nominee, a third party Tea Partier runs and gets over 5%.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Prediction: If Mitt Romney is the Republican nominee, a third party Tea Partier runs and gets over 5%.

No, Romney will take a Tea Party running mate, and unite the party. My guess is a strong performance by Libertarians or Greens. My bet is the Greens nominate Jello Biafra, and the Libertarians nominate Wayne Allen Root.

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

Palin wins nomination and picks Daniels as her runningmate.

Daniels landslides the VP debate and the Obama/Palin debate is a near dead heat.

In the end I have two words for the election outcome: Hadassah Rising

[exopolitician]

Palin wins nomination and picks Daniels as her runningmate.

Daniels landslides the VP debate and the Obama/Palin debate is a near dead heat.

In the end I have two words for the election outcome: Hadassah Rising

...and then my head explodes. I don't think Daniels would accept a VP slot to Palin. I feel like that would be insulting to Daniels.

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

Palin wins nomination and picks Daniels as her runningmate.

Daniels landslides the VP debate and the Obama/Palin debate is a near dead heat.

In the end I have two words for the election outcome: Hadassah Rising

...and then my head explodes. I don't think Daniels would accept a VP slot to Palin. I feel like that would be insulting to Daniels.

She is smarter than what those on the left give her credit for. Like how Reagan had H.W., and H.W. had Quayle. A Conservative led ticket is how the GOP wins. Sadly the Moderates have had the past 6 nominees (H.W twice, Dole, W twice, McCain). No I don't consider W or McCain conservatives. To me conservatives are your Ron and Rand Paul, Mike Pence, Jim Demint, Jack Kemp, Pierre Dupont IV types.

[Badger]

Its always great to see non-christian Dems make predictions about Republicans!!! 

It might very well be Romney eventually, but he still loses the primaries in Iowa and South Carolina. 

Thune is the darkhorse.  Barbour is the darkhorse.  Those 2 will have the strongest showings in the primaries depending on how Palin does.

Hmmmm. Funny how you can tell a person's religion just by their posting in a political forum. Well, take this prediction from a "Dem" whose also a deacon in his church:

Romney will probably get the nomination, the likely second choice is a current unknown like Thune, Barbour or Pawlenty. Huck is overrated as a national candidate.

Beyond that, the general election result will be directly related to the unemployment level. I predict an Obama win. of comparable level to 2008. "Obamacare" will survive and become part of the middle class landscape like Medicare. Debate turns to "socialist" public option.

Milhouse comes out of closet and takes advantage of liberalization of marriage laws. Finds love and personal satisfaction as "screaming bottom".

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Bump. I was right on 2 out of 7 of my predictions (non-serious primary challenge and the unemployment/approval rating).