Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
September 23, 2014, 07:27:39 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  U.S. Presidential Election Results
| | |-+  2000 U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderator: True Federalist)
| | | |-+  Who were the Buchanan voters in FL?
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: Who were the Buchanan voters in FL?  (Read 888 times)
phk
phknrocket1k
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12975


Political Matrix
E: 1.42, S: -1.22

View Profile
« on: February 02, 2011, 07:21:46 pm »
Ignore

Original Source: http://www.ssc.wisc.edu/~bhansen/vote/florida.pdf
I recreated a lot of the work on Stata on my own using the 2000 Census and Atlas  vote total.

Analyzed Variables
  • The natural logarithm of the Buchanan Vote (P). In the form of Log(P).
  • A linear function of the percentage of people aged 65 or older (A65).
  • The percentage of Blacks (B)
  • The percentage of Hispanics (H)
  • The percentage of College-educated (C)
  • Median-family income in dollars (I)

Regression Function
log(P) = 2.146 -0.0415*A65-0.0132*B-0.0349*H-0.0193*C-0.0658*I

Summary Statistics
n=66 (for all counties in Florida)
R2=0.73
σ = .334

Interpretation
  • Increasing the population over 65 years of age by 1% decreases Buchanan's vote by 4.1%
  • Increasing the Black population by 1% decreases Buchanan's vote by 1.3%
  • Increasing the Hispanic population by 1% decreases Buchanan's vote by 3.5%
  • Increasing the college-educated population by 1% decreases Buchanan's vote by 1.9%
  • A $1000 increase in median household income decreases Buchanan's vote by 6.6%

Conclusion
The results certainly suggest that Buchanan did far better in Palm Beach than what he would have normally expected to do. Or it could be the result of great staff placement in Palm Beach itself.

The butterfly ballot itself definitely had the potential to be a bigger spoiler than Nader. Considering Palm Beach County has a high proportion of elderly, college-educated and high income people.

In general it also is likely true that Buchanan hurt Bush amongst downscale but conservative White voters.
« Last Edit: February 02, 2011, 07:40:36 pm by phknrocket1k »Logged

Del Tachi
Republican95
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2346


View Profile
« Reply #1 on: February 04, 2011, 04:47:01 pm »
Ignore

Who were the Buchanan voters in FL?

Old folks in Palm Beach County who got cheated by the butterfly ballot. 
Logged

Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines