County-by-County shift from 2000 to 2004 (preliminary)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 03:54:38 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  U.S. Presidential Election Results
  2004 U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderator: Dereich)
  County-by-County shift from 2000 to 2004 (preliminary)
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: County-by-County shift from 2000 to 2004 (preliminary)  (Read 1925 times)
Sam Spade
SamSpade
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,547


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: November 24, 2004, 08:59:06 PM »
« edited: November 24, 2004, 09:15:03 PM by SamSpade »

From www.patrickruffini.com, one of the main Bush bloggers:

http://www.patrickruffini.com/research/swing2004big.jpg

Decided to do a link.  It was making the page act funny to me.
Logged
Nym90
nym90
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 16,260
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -2.96

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: November 24, 2004, 09:04:01 PM »

I remember Ruffini, he used to be on this Forum back in the days of the old Forum.
Logged
Sam Spade
SamSpade
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,547


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: November 24, 2004, 09:14:02 PM »

I have always enjoyed reading his blog and writings.  This map is very informative to say the least.
Logged
Hitchabrut
republicanjew18
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,674


Political Matrix
E: 8.38, S: 7.49

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: November 25, 2004, 11:56:50 AM »

Ruffini's 2000 maps by precinct are also extremely informative.
Logged
zorkpolitics
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,188
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: November 25, 2004, 12:09:27 PM »

The map seems to reveal some underlying trends:

Was Kerry's improvement in VT, NH, ME because he was from MA, or is New England now lost to the GOP?

Should the Democrats abandon the South?  Was even Gore's weak showing in the South artificially high because he was from a border state?

Should the Democrats be investing in ID, MT, SD, ND, WY where Kerry did much better than Gore?  Will there be an opportunity for them here in 10yrs?

And focus on the SW and Upper midewest?
Logged
phk
phknrocket1k
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,906


Political Matrix
E: 1.42, S: -1.22

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: November 25, 2004, 01:40:32 PM »

Republicans should write-off the North-east, Democrats should write off the Deep South.
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: November 25, 2004, 04:02:18 PM »

The map seems to reveal some underlying trends:

Or does it? George W Bush is not allowed to seek re-election in 2008.
Logged
Sam Spade
SamSpade
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,547


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: November 25, 2004, 05:26:18 PM »

VT, NH, and ME are not lost to Republicans forever, though I continue to think VT is probably beyond repair (too much movement from NYC).   A Republican who would be competitive here is not necessarily a social liberal, but more likely an environmental liberal, especially in Maine.  Also, I think anyone not named Bush would fair much better in NH.  Those rural NH people hate Bushes for some reason or another.

Unless Democrats nominate a Southerner, I can't see them being competitive in even the upper South (AR, LA, TN, NC, VA) or even Florida.  The Deep South has been gone to the Democrats for a while now.  I continue to believe that the Democrats are increasingly doing dumb things in the South, because those new Southerners are not becoming Dixiecrats; they are becoming Republicans and historically we know it is much easier for Democrats to win Dixiecrats to vote for them (witness Jimmy Carter 1976) than to win Republicans.

In the Plains states, there are no trends.  Look at the history: ND, MT, SD (less so WY and ID) are historically anti-incumbent, especially SD and MT.  The same pro-incumbent trends are apparent in HI, NY and IA (though less so this year in IA).  I don't really pay attention to any of those states for trends.

Clearly, unless different types of candidates are nominated (and I think there is a high chance of that in 2008), the SW US and the Midwest will continue to be your battlegrounds.
Logged
Alcon
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,867
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: November 25, 2004, 05:35:50 PM »

Just for fun I looked at the map and tried to interpret what states had counties going what way.

The results' geographical grouping was what surprised me:



This is not taking into account the national shift, by the way. Very interesting.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.036 seconds with 15 queries.