Sam Spade
SamSpade
Atlas Star
Posts: 27,547
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« Reply #2 on: November 25, 2004, 05:26:18 PM » |
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VT, NH, and ME are not lost to Republicans forever, though I continue to think VT is probably beyond repair (too much movement from NYC). A Republican who would be competitive here is not necessarily a social liberal, but more likely an environmental liberal, especially in Maine. Also, I think anyone not named Bush would fair much better in NH. Those rural NH people hate Bushes for some reason or another.
Unless Democrats nominate a Southerner, I can't see them being competitive in even the upper South (AR, LA, TN, NC, VA) or even Florida. The Deep South has been gone to the Democrats for a while now. I continue to believe that the Democrats are increasingly doing dumb things in the South, because those new Southerners are not becoming Dixiecrats; they are becoming Republicans and historically we know it is much easier for Democrats to win Dixiecrats to vote for them (witness Jimmy Carter 1976) than to win Republicans.
In the Plains states, there are no trends. Look at the history: ND, MT, SD (less so WY and ID) are historically anti-incumbent, especially SD and MT. The same pro-incumbent trends are apparent in HI, NY and IA (though less so this year in IA). I don't really pay attention to any of those states for trends.
Clearly, unless different types of candidates are nominated (and I think there is a high chance of that in 2008), the SW US and the Midwest will continue to be your battlegrounds.
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