South Carolina, PPP -- depends on who gets nomnated

[pbrower2a]

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_SC_02021210.pdf

Romney and Huckabee do about equally well against President Obama in South Carolina. Gingrich, to my surprise, loses here; Palin shows potential for a landslide victory... nationally, that is, for President Obama. I don't have a map for Favorite Sons; as I recall, Bachmann, Christie, and Santorum do catastrophically badly against President Obama -- but DeMint and Thune do fine in their own states. (Indiana, anyone?)    

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Obama vs. Huckabee

Obama vs. Romney

Obama vs. Gingrich

Obama vs. Palin

[Mehmentum]

Seeing the results for South Carolina, Georgia might be interesting...

[DrScholl]

Interesting that DeMint only leads by 2 against Obama, not a great home state advantage there at all.

[exopolitician]

Hah! I'm not an idiot then.

[Niemeyerite]

Hah! I'm not an idiot then.

No, you aren't. I'm =)

but really, I thought Huckabee would be leading by 9 or 10 points, and obviously doing better than romney. this is surprising to me. and as mr. gingrich is from the neighbor state, I thought he was at least, leading obama, also by a better amount than romney.

[Landslide Lyndon]

An Alvin Greene candidacy will split the black vote and Sister Sarah will carry the state, you all naysayers!

[Tender Branson]

Yeah, I already knew that Palin would trail here too.

BTW:

pbrower, you made a mistake in the map, Huckabee is not @ 50% - you have to use "4" in the map.

[tmthforu94]

While Romney has not been strong in the South for primaries, I expect more polls like this one to disprove the theory that the GOP will lose the South if Romney is the nominee. When he's actually performing better than two southerners there, that has to mean something.

[pbrower2a]

Yeah, I already knew that Palin would trail here too.

BTW:

pbrower, you made a mistake in the map, Huckabee is not @ 50% - you have to use "4" in the map.

Tpyo corrected.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

While Romney has not been strong in the South for primaries, I expect more polls like this one to disprove the theory that the GOP will lose the South if Romney is the nominee. When he's actually performing better than two southerners there, that has to mean something.

Yep, Obama would solve about 85% of Romney's Southern problem in a general election. And Romney probably does better in some of the Coastal, less evan areas then the Southern candidates, while at the same time losing very few of the evans who are primarily concerned about getting Obama gone. Of course 1 point is stastically hard to base anything of off. Need to see more polling like this to confirm such a theory.

Seeing the results for South Carolina, Georgia might be interesting...

Are they going to do GA soon? I would be interested in seeing it as well.

[Eraserhead]

Palin is probably trailing by double digits in GA. The other three will probably be in statistical dead heats with Obama.

[Associate Justice PiT]

Palin is probably trailing by double digits in GA. The other three will probably be in statistical dead heats with Obama.

     That seems highly unlikely given that Romney & Huckabee posted decent leads in Arizona, which is a more marginal state than Georgia.

[minionofmidas]

Romney and Huckabee do alike in a lot of places - probably just not offensive enough to do far below Generic Republican?

[Eraserhead]

Palin is probably trailing by double digits in GA. The other three will probably be in statistical dead heats with Obama.

     That seems highly unlikely given that Romney & Huckabee posted decent leads in Arizona, which is a more marginal state than Georgia.

Huckabee's lead was actually within the margin of error in Arizona. They'll probably be technically leading in GA but only by a few points.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

I wonder how Gingrich will do in his home state.

[Associate Justice PiT]

Palin is probably trailing by double digits in GA. The other three will probably be in statistical dead heats with Obama.

     That seems highly unlikely given that Romney & Huckabee posted decent leads in Arizona, which is a more marginal state than Georgia.

Huckabee's lead was actually within the margin of error in Arizona. They'll probably be technically leading in GA but only by a few points.

     Leading by 4% in a poll with a 4% margin of error translates to an 85%+ chance of actually being in the lead, assuming the poll was done right. The equation at the bottom of this page bears that out. Referring to that as a statistical dead heat strikes me as slightly reductionist.

[Eraserhead]

Palin is probably trailing by double digits in GA. The other three will probably be in statistical dead heats with Obama.

     That seems highly unlikely given that Romney & Huckabee posted decent leads in Arizona, which is a more marginal state than Georgia.

Huckabee's lead was actually within the margin of error in Arizona. They'll probably be technically leading in GA but only by a few points.

     Leading by 4% in a poll with a 4% margin of error translates to an 85%+ chance of actually being in the lead, assuming the poll was done right. The equation at the bottom of this page bears that out. Referring to that as a statistical dead heat strikes me as slightly reductionist.

The point still stands.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

It's out:  http://race42012.com/2011/02/04/poll-watch-georgia-2020-insight-polling/

[Fuzzybigfoot]

The poll shows Obama beating Palin by 4, loosing to Gingrich by 2%, down 5% against Huckabee, and trailing Romney by 6%.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Romney better once again, by 1 point. Damn. This is getting freaky.

[Eraserhead]

The poll shows Obama beating Palin by 4, loosing to Gingrich by 2%, down 5% against Huckabee, and trailing Romney by 6%.

Hmm... Palin is doing better than I would have expected.

That's terrible for Gingrich.

[Eraserhead]

Who's "Insight Polling" though? That isn't PPP.

[Eraserhead]

Some other stuff:

Primary numbers are interesting.

Huckabee 19%
Gingrich 18%
Not certain 16%
Cain 14% (lol wut... I know he's from GA but seriously?)
Romney 14%
Palin 11% (safe to say she's imploding yet?)
Pawlenty 3%
Some other candidate 3%
Barbour 2%
Daniels 1%

General election match-ups when registered voters are looked at without leaners:

Obama +6 over Palin
Romney +6 over Obama
Huckabee +3 over Obama
Obama +1 over Gingrich

https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&pid=explorer&chrome=true&srcid=0B_KEK8-LWmzhOGM5OTQzNDMtNjdjZC00OWZlLThlMTgtZDFjM2JjN2Q2OWM1&hl=en

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Cool. SC isn't as hopeless as I thought we were!

[Lief 🗽]

Man, DeMint only beats Barry by 2? Should have ran a real candidate against him last year. :/