1976 and 1980 Elections by 1981-1990 Congressional Districts
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Author Topic: 1976 and 1980 Elections by 1981-1990 Congressional Districts  (Read 13418 times)
RI
realisticidealist
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« on: February 03, 2011, 10:22:37 PM »
California and New Jersey changed their borders mid-decade, so the data doesn't quite work for the districts on this map. I could adjust the borders, but I don't have the time at the moment.

1976:



1980:
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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #1 on: February 03, 2011, 10:29:35 PM »
Cheesy  Great job!  Cheesy
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tpfkaw
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« Reply #2 on: February 03, 2011, 10:33:18 PM »
Wow, very cool!  Good work (I don't even want to know how you did 1976...).  It's interesting to see all those districts in the South voting "opposite" in 1976 - Ford must have gotten a respectable percentage of the Southern black vote (no doubt due to the controversy over Carter's attendance of a segregated church).
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Nichlemn
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« Reply #3 on: February 03, 2011, 10:41:45 PM »
So Carter picked up some Upstate NY districts in 1980. Rockefeller Republicans voting Anderson? Any other pickups?
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RI
realisticidealist
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« Reply #4 on: February 03, 2011, 10:44:40 PM »
« Edited: February 03, 2011, 10:48:03 PM by Pacific Councilor realisticidealist »
He picked up a district near Detroit as well. Those were the only four districts to switch to Carter.
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tpfkaw
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« Reply #5 on: February 03, 2011, 10:49:13 PM »
Quote from: Nichlemn on February 03, 2011, 10:41:45 PM
So Carter picked up some Upstate NY districts in 1980. Rockefeller Republicans voting Anderson? Any other pickups?

Only one suburban Detroit district.  Presumably because of the loss of the favorite son effect.
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RI
realisticidealist
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« Reply #6 on: February 03, 2011, 11:09:23 PM »
Here is a close-up of New York City. 1976 is on the left and 1980 is on the right.
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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #7 on: February 03, 2011, 11:12:26 PM »
Why did Las Vegas swing so much to Reagan?
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bgwah
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« Reply #8 on: February 03, 2011, 11:14:58 PM »
How did you determine the CD borders on the map? WA-8 wasn't even created until 1982.
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RI
realisticidealist
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« Reply #9 on: February 03, 2011, 11:30:59 PM »
Quote from: bgwah on February 03, 2011, 11:14:58 PM
How did you determine the CD borders on the map? WA-8 wasn't even created until 1982.

The information was in a book at my library by Congressional Quarterly. It contained the maps for the 1981-1991 CDs, and had the election results for each area as if those CDs had existed during these elections. They supposedly went back a looked at precinct results to calculate them.
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bgwah
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« Reply #10 on: February 03, 2011, 11:33:01 PM »
Quote from: Pacific Councilor realisticidealist on February 03, 2011, 11:30:59 PM
Quote from: bgwah on February 03, 2011, 11:14:58 PM
How did you determine the CD borders on the map? WA-8 wasn't even created until 1982.

The information was in a book at my library by Congressional Quarterly. It contained the maps for the 1981-1991 CDs, and had the election results for each area as if those CDs had existed during these elections. They supposedly went back a looked at precinct results to calculate them.

I totally missed the "by 1981-1990 Congressional Districts" part. My bad. Tongue
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RI
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« Reply #11 on: February 03, 2011, 11:36:57 PM »
Geez people, read the title. Tongue
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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #12 on: February 03, 2011, 11:37:53 PM »
How did Carter loose AZ-2?  
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RI
realisticidealist
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« Reply #13 on: February 03, 2011, 11:37:59 PM »
One good thing about having it this way is that it makes it really easy to compare with 1984 and 1988.
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RI
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« Reply #14 on: February 03, 2011, 11:39:53 PM »

Most of the population of most of Arizona's CDs was in Maricopa County, which went heavily against Carter. The counties he won had very little population.
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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #15 on: February 03, 2011, 11:42:53 PM »
Quote from: Pacific Councilor realisticidealist on February 03, 2011, 11:39:53 PM

Most of the population of most of Arizona's CDs was in Maricopa County, which went heavily against Carter. The counties he won had very little population.

Hmm, that's strange, Mondale only lost that district by 3%.  And Carter did much better than his VP in Pima County.
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bgwah
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« Reply #16 on: February 03, 2011, 11:46:06 PM »

WA-2 added to my confusion. I forgot it included the peninsula then. Tongue
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #17 on: February 03, 2011, 11:51:18 PM »
Quote from: Pacific Councilor Mr. Fuzzleton on February 03, 2011, 11:42:53 PM
Quote from: Pacific Councilor realisticidealist on February 03, 2011, 11:39:53 PM

Most of the population of most of Arizona's CDs was in Maricopa County, which went heavily against Carter. The counties he won had very little population.

Hmm, that's strange, Mondale only lost that district by 3%.  And Carter did much better than his VP in Pima County.

Maricopa is larger then Pima, significantly so. Like 2 or 3 to 1.
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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #18 on: February 03, 2011, 11:54:18 PM »
« Edited: February 03, 2011, 11:56:11 PM by Pacific Councilor Mr. Fuzzleton »
Quote from: Senator North Carolina Yankee on February 03, 2011, 11:51:18 PM
Quote from: Pacific Councilor Mr. Fuzzleton on February 03, 2011, 11:42:53 PM
Quote from: Pacific Councilor realisticidealist on February 03, 2011, 11:39:53 PM

Most of the population of most of Arizona's CDs was in Maricopa County, which went heavily against Carter. The counties he won had very little population.

Hmm, that's strange, Mondale only lost that district by 3%.  And Carter did much better than his VP in Pima County.

Maricopa is larger then Pima, significantly so. Like 2 or 3 to 1.

Yes, but AZ-2 only contained a fraction of Maricopa County, and Carter outperformed Mondale in both.  

I can only guess that the Dem precincts in both Phoenix and Tucson were less polarized back then, but it still seems kind of strange he would loose the district.
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freepcrusher
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« Reply #19 on: February 03, 2011, 11:55:28 PM »
interesting thing about AZ 2 was that Dukakis won it with 55%. One thing I'm interested in is what parts of Maricopa county was in AZ 2?
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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #20 on: February 03, 2011, 11:58:17 PM »
« Edited: February 04, 2011, 12:00:18 AM by Pacific Councilor Mr. Fuzzleton »
Quote from: freepcrusher on February 03, 2011, 11:55:28 PM
interesting thing about AZ 2 was that Dukakis won it with 55%. One thing I'm interested in is what parts of Maricopa county was in AZ 2?

Mostly the more Democratic parts of Phoenix (larger black/hispanic populations).
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freepcrusher
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« Reply #21 on: February 04, 2011, 12:00:09 AM »
well i know between 1976 and 1988 that the Maryvale and Estrella neighborhoods of west Phoenix had a rapid decrease of white population and a lot of section 8ers moving in. That can probably explain why Dukakis did better than Carter.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #22 on: February 04, 2011, 12:13:12 AM »
Quote from: Pacific Councilor Mr. Fuzzleton on February 03, 2011, 11:58:17 PM
Quote from: freepcrusher on February 03, 2011, 11:55:28 PM
interesting thing about AZ 2 was that Dukakis won it with 55%. One thing I'm interested in is what parts of Maricopa county was in AZ 2?

Mostly the more Democratic parts of Phoenix (larger black/hispanic populations).

Yes but far fewer blakc and hispanics then there are now especial but also fewer then even in 1988. 12 years is a long time.

Or basically what freepy said.
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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #23 on: February 04, 2011, 02:04:57 AM »
That makes sense.  It just seemed kind of strange to me though, with the big Tucson vote in there as well.
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bgwah
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« Reply #24 on: February 04, 2011, 02:37:47 AM »
IL-1 is so beautiful.
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