things you notice in each election
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  things you notice in each election
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Author Topic: things you notice in each election  (Read 1994 times)
freepcrusher
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« on: February 04, 2011, 10:37:19 PM »

I'll start

1932 - why does Roosevelt not outperform Al Smith by a lot in Massachusetts?

1936 - beginning of east west divide. Dakotas Nebraska swing toward Landon (although he was from neighboring Kansas) while the areas east of the Mississippi swing more towards FDR

1940 - the german backlash is evident, especially in Nebraska and the Dakotas

1944 - the same as 1940 give or take a few places

1948 - Truman appears to have overperformed FDR in the plains and western states but underperformed him in the NE

1952 - Texas, Oklahoma, Arizona, NM (ie the SW) begin voting republican

1956 - nothing too interesting. Although if one looks at Oklahoma one clearly sees an ethnicity boundary between the scots irish settlers in the southern part of the state and the midwestern northern part of the state

1960 - first time where democrat won minority of counties yet still won

1964 - a preview of what america would look like circa 2008

1968 - democratic party is quickly becoming the party of the northeast. A lot of the 50% Humphrey states were in the Northeast (except for his homestate of Minnesota). Nebraska swings back hard to the republicans

1972 - are blacks not allowed to vote? What's with the county sweeps in AR, GA, SC, FL?

1976 - a near inverse of the current electoral map

1980 - last time a democrat does better in the old confederacy than the rest of the country

1984 - Nothing too interesting here.

1988 - Washington and Oregon, which both voted for Ford in 1976, vote for Dukakis. Maybe they were turned off by the Johnny Horton ads

1992 - a lot of states flip democrat in this year never to return again (at the moment) such as California, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Illinois, Vermont, Connecticut etc

1996 - notice how many more counties Clinton won than Obama

2000 - beginning of severe concentration of democrats.

2004 - continuation of 2004

2008 - nothing interesting but it seems like you have a diagonal line of areas that didn't like Obama stretching from Pennsylvania coal country to the red river valley of Texas.
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phk
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« Reply #1 on: February 05, 2011, 02:33:45 AM »

For 1992. A lot of those states would have flipped in 1988 had Dukakis not run so badly.
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Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook
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« Reply #2 on: February 05, 2011, 03:38:51 PM »

1944 was the last election where the entire Old Confederacy went Democratic.
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Mexino Vote
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« Reply #3 on: February 07, 2011, 12:43:53 AM »

I'll start

1932 - why does Roosevelt not outperform Al Smith by a lot in Massachusetts?

1936 - beginning of east west divide. Dakotas Nebraska swing toward Landon (although he was from neighboring Kansas) while the areas east of the Mississippi swing more towards FDR

1940 - the german backlash is evident, especially in Nebraska and the Dakotas

1944 - the same as 1940 give or take a few places

1948 - Truman appears to have overperformed FDR in the plains and western states but underperformed him in the NE

1952 - Texas, Oklahoma, Arizona, NM (ie the SW) begin voting republican

1956 - nothing too interesting. Although if one looks at Oklahoma one clearly sees an ethnicity boundary between the scots irish settlers in the southern part of the state and the midwestern northern part of the state

1960 - first time where democrat won minority of counties yet still won

1964 - a preview of what america would look like circa 2008

1968 - democratic party is quickly becoming the party of the northeast. A lot of the 50% Humphrey states were in the Northeast (except for his homestate of Minnesota). Nebraska swings back hard to the republicans

1972 - are blacks not allowed to vote? What's with the county sweeps in AR, GA, SC, FL?
1976 - a near inverse of the current electoral map

1980 - last time a democrat does better in the old confederacy than the rest of the country

1984 - Nothing too interesting here.

1988 - Washington and Oregon, which both voted for Ford in 1976, vote for Dukakis. Maybe they were turned off by the Johnny Horton ads

1992 - a lot of states flip democrat in this year never to return again (at the moment) such as California, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Illinois, Vermont, Connecticut etc

1996 - notice how many more counties Clinton won than Obama

2000 - beginning of severe concentration of democrats.

2004 - continuation of 2004

2008 - nothing interesting but it seems like you have a diagonal line of areas that didn't like Obama stretching from Pennsylvania coal country to the red river valley of Texas.

Blacks supported Nixon would be my guess.
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Mr. Taft Republican
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« Reply #4 on: February 07, 2011, 08:20:02 PM »

1964- Johnson portrayed Goldwater as an extremist, than proceeded to amp up the Vietnam War. 1968, last election in which a political machine was able to make the decision of who the nominee was (Dem primary).
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Mechaman
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« Reply #5 on: February 14, 2011, 05:47:57 PM »

1856-Fillmore seems to do a lot more damage to Buchanan in New York than he does to Fremont.  I guess New York really REALLY did not like slavery.
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Mechaman
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« Reply #6 on: February 15, 2011, 11:42:35 AM »

1896: Wow, Bryan bombed out in the Northeast.  Possible Tammany Effect?
1900, 1908: ^^^^ditto, though not as bad.
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tpfkaw
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« Reply #7 on: February 15, 2011, 11:48:17 AM »

1932 - why does Roosevelt not outperform Al Smith by a lot in Massachusetts?

High Catholic turnout in 1928.  Also Massachusetts was not big on left-wing Democrats at the time.

1896: Wow, Bryan bombed out in the Northeast.  Possible Tammany Effect?
1900, 1908: ^^^^ditto, though not as bad.

Not really that so much as his running on a platform of "Screw the Northeast!"
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