Indiana 2012 Congressional Races

[Jayhawker]

United States Senate:

Republican Candidate
State Treasurer Richard Mourdock

Democratic Candidate
Congressman Joe Donnelly

Tmth Rating: Tilt Republican

US House Races:

IN-01
Republican Candidate
Mr. Joel Phelps

Democratic Candidate
Congressman Pete Visclosky

Tmth Rating: Safe Democratic

IN-02
Republican Candidate
Ms. Jackie Walorski

Democratic Candidate
Mr. Brendan Mullen

Tmth Rating: Likely Republican

IN-03
Republican Candidate
Congressman Marlin Stutzman

Democratic Candidate
Rev. Kevin Boyd

Tmth Rating: Safe Republican

IN-04
Republican Candidate
Congressman Todd Rokita

Democratic Candidate
Ms. Tara Nelson

Tmth Rating: Safe Republican

IN-05
Republican Candidate
Ms. Susan Brooks

Democratic Candidate
Mr. Scott Reske

Tmth Rating: Safe Republican

IN-06
Republican Candidate
Mr. Luke Messer

Democratic Candidate
Mr. Brad Bookout

Tmth Rating: Safe Republican

IN-07
Republican Candidate
Mr. Carlos May

Democratic Candidate
Congressman Andre Carson

Tmth Rating: Safe Democratic

IN-08
Republican Candidate
Congressman Larry Bucshon

Democratic Candidate
Mr. Dave Crooks

Tmth Rating: Likely Republican

IN-09
Republican Candidate
Congressman Todd Young

Democratic Candidate
Ms. Shelli Yoder

Tmth Rating: Likely Republican

Analysis: Joe Donnelly is pretty decent candidate for Indiana. There are two area's he fails at though - Area 1 is he isn't as likeable as a Democrat needs to be to win. Secondly is his support for Obamacare - that right there killed him for me, and I know many other Lugar Republicans feel the same way. Mourdock is way out there, but at the end of the day, people are going to be voting as a referendum on Barack Obama, and because of that, I expect Mourdock to win by around 5 points.

For the House races, the only race that could be somewhat close is my district, the "Bloody 8th". Walorski has things wrapped up in the 2nd, and I don't think Young was ever in serious trouble in the 9th. Bucshon just isn't that good of a politician, and his opponent, Dave Crooks, has outraised him. Democrats have an eye on this seat, but they aren't focusing too much - neither candidate has been on the air much, but it's a ground game operation, and at the end of the day, I still expect Bucshon to win by around a 55-45 margin - he just isn't controversial enough to lose.

[Jayhawker]

http://www.jconline.com/article/20110206/NEWS02/102060344/

Though I guess Mourdock hasn't officially declared it, he's "made a decision" and will begin touring the state in a couple weeks to give the special announcement.

[Big DaddyTX]

http://www.jconline.com/article/20110206/NEWS02/102060344/

Though I guess Mourdock hasn't officially declared it, he's "made a decision" and will begin touring the state in a couple weeks to give the special announcement.

Do you think it might be possible he is doing this to get his name out there, bring in funds, than run for Governor?

[Jayhawker]

http://www.jconline.com/article/20110206/NEWS02/102060344/

Though I guess Mourdock hasn't officially declared it, he's "made a decision" and will begin touring the state in a couple weeks to give the special announcement.

Do you think it might be possible he is doing this to get his name out there, bring in funds, than run for Governor?

No, he's said he's said, that "a lot of people have been asking me if I'm going to run for the US Senate seat. I've made a decision, and within a couple weeks, I'll be touring the state to make a special announcement.

And besides, he's not going to run for Governor. That's Pence's divine right.

[krazen1211]

If we run Torie's map, dumping Bloomington into CD-7, CD-9 is also safe.

[Torie]

It is almost impossible with redistricting not to make IN-09 (Baron Hill's old seat now held by Young), into anything  other than a GOP bastion. In my map, IN-09 voted 57.82% for McCain, up from about 51% McCain. IN-09 has to expand, and it's Pubbie country in all directions it can expand into from its SE corner of the state. IN-02 is now at 53% McCain, up from 45% McCain. I expect to see these kind of numbers in the new map, assuming the GOP has the guts to append Monroe County to Indianapolis, and do the South Bend and Elkhart chops to give IN-02 a big Pubbie shove.

So I suspect both Hill and Donnelly will be running for statewide office, both probably losing, and then retiring from politics.

[Senator Napoleon]

Baron Hill would put up a good fight against Pence. Pence is super conservative and Hill is quite centrist, even a tad conservative.

[SvenssonRS]

Baron Hill would put up a good fight against Pence. Pence is super conservative and Hill is quite centrist, even a tad conservative.

He's also denied any interest whatsoever.

[Is JCL in mushy sappy love]

If Silent Joe runs for Senate or governor, who do the Democrats get to oppose Walorski?

[JoeyJoeJoe]

Would Republicans really redistrict the 2nd with Walorski specifically in mind?  It seems like she wasn't particularly popular among Republicans and a weak candidate.  I figured that Republicans had to have someone better here.

As for the 9th, it can act contrary to expectations.  Dems tried redistricting it to prevent Lee Hamilton from losing it in 1966, and took Dems out of the 8th.  Hamilton won big in 1966, so he didn't need the extra votes Dems put there, and Winfield Denton, the 8th CD dem, lost because he lost those Dems from the seat.  Oops

[Is JCL in mushy sappy love]

And why do you say Walorski was weak?

[Gravis Marketing]

And why do you say Walorski was weak?

Isn't it tautological? She lost in IN-2 in 2010.

[Is JCL in mushy sappy love]

Besides the fact that she lost. The slightest tweak in the district lines and she wins. Say they put all of Howard county into the second, Jackie wins comfortably.

[JoeyJoeJoe]

A better Republican candidate probably would have won (which would have restored the district's tradition of unseating incumbents in years ending in zero).

[Jayhawker]

A better Republican candidate probably would have won (which would have restored the district's tradition of unseating incumbents in years ending in zero).

She came very close to unseating someone who won by just 20 points 2 years earlier, and probably would have won if it hadn't been for the Libertarian in the race. Was she the greatest campaigner in the world? No, but I don't think we could (or can) get anyone better with more name recognition.

Republicans will create a Walorski-friendly district. I've heard legislators talking about it. In November 2012, Jackie Walorski will be elected to the US House with over 50%. I'm calling it now.

[Is JCL in mushy sappy love]

A better Republican candidate probably would have won (which would have restored the district's tradition of unseating incumbents in years ending in zero).

She came very close to unseating someone who won by just 20 points 2 years earlier, and probably would have won if it hadn't been for the Libertarian in the race. Was she the greatest campaigner in the world? No, but I don't think we could (or can) get anyone better with more name recognition.

Republicans will create a Walorski-friendly district. I've heard legislators talking about it. In November 2012, Jackie Walorski will be elected to the US House with over 50%. I'm calling it now.

And I plan to have a hand in that becoming reality.

[feeblepizza]

And why do you say Walorski was weak?

Isn't it tautological? She lost in IN-2 in 2010.

Sure, but she came very, very close to winning in IN-02. Indiana legislators are going to create a GOP friendly district in 2012 so that she can make a comeback. I doubt that Donnelly will even run for reelection, then, however. He's more likely to set his sights on a campaign for Governor or for the Senate.

[Is JCL in mushy sappy love]

Only time will tell

[Jayhawker]

http://www.indystar.com/article/20110331/LOCAL01/103310353/1115/LOCAL0104/Donnelly-floats-ideas-Senate-campaign

Joe Donnelly appears to be strongly considering a run for the Senate to avoid losing to Jackie Walorski. No surprise here at all. I'm confident Lugar would be able to easily beat him, though not so sure on Mourdock.

[Jayhawker]

http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2011/05/donnelly-to-ann.php

"Silent Joe" apparently has decided he wants to lose to Richard Lugar/Mourdock, and will be announcing his quest to do just that on Monday.

[timothyinMD]

Donnelly doesn't have a chance. 

Dems got to hand select their dream candidate in 2010.  A young, handsome, "moderate" representative, and he was destroyed by an old has-been former Senator. 

Lugar's going to lose, and so is Donnelly

[feeblepizza]

Dems got to hand select their dream candidate in 2010.  A young, handsome, "moderate" representative, and he was destroyed by an old has-been former Senator.

He would have beat any other Republican besides Stutzman.

[Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Dems got to hand select their dream candidate in 2010.  A young, handsome, "moderate" representative, and he was destroyed by an old has-been former Senator.

He would have beat any other Republican besides Stutzman.

Among those running, definately. I don't see how he would have beat a Pence, Daniels, Rodkita, or the like if they had run for it, though.

[Jayhawker]

Dems got to hand select their dream candidate in 2010.  A young, handsome, "moderate" representative, and he was destroyed by an old has-been former Senator.

He would have beat any other Republican besides Stutzman.

Stutzman would have crushed Ellsworth. He was the perfect candidate for Indiana.

[Jayhawker]

http://www.southbendtribune.com/sbt-goshen-lawyer-running-for-congress-20110506,0,6197225.story

There are now two candidates in the race for IN-02, most notably Jackie Walorski. She has officially declared a run. I've also heard, regarding IN-09, that Baron Hill will not be challenging Todd Young to a rematch.