Indiana 2012 Congressional Races

[Jayhawker]

The Indianapolis Star has released several articles about Mourdock.

In December, Mourdock had a 100-donor challenge, and he failed to get even 100 people to donate to his campaign. Brian Howey of the Star called him out for it. Mourdock then retaliated that it was still success as they raised money, and now Mourdock supporter's are attacking Howey and calling him a liar. Talk about arrogance/ignorance.

Also, in the past year, Mourdock only attended approximately 34% of meetings he was supposed to attend as Treasurer, compared to Lugar, who only missed 4 votes in the Senate.

[Jayhawker]

Bumping for Phil

Oh, and there's a debate tonight. Any other Hoosier's planning on watching?

[Jayhawker]

The debate just ended. Hoping someone else watched it so I can have someone to discuss it with!

Saying this unbiased, I think the debate was a wash, which is good news for Lugar. I was really worried Senator Lugar would come across as, well, old, but he held his own, and certainly exhibited his vast knowledge when the debate turned to foreign policy.

Tonight was Mourdock's big chance to really turn this race in his favor, and I don't think he did that. The two agreed all too often, which actually surprised me, as I thought Mourdock would go after Lugar more than he did. A poll done on one of the site's that showed the debate shows 52% saying Lugar won while 48% saying Mourdock.

IMHO, Lugar is on track to winning the May 8th primary, but things can still change.

[Jayhawker]

http://www.indystar.com/article/20120411/NEWS05/120411037/Lugar-Mourdock-leave-debate-without-bruises-advantage?odyssey=tab%7Ctopnews%7Ctext%7CNews

During the one-hour debate — much of it devoted to Lugar’s strong suit of foreign policy — he showed that at 80 he is a sharp lawmaker with broad experience of the world and national issues.

And Mourdock, a two-term state official, showed that he could hold his own against Lugar’s expertise and challenge him without ever appearing disrespectful of his fellow Republican.

...

Completely agree.

[Jayhawker]

http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-haberman/2012/04/american-action-network-up-with-massive-buy-behind-120394.html

“Indiana Republicans have yet to meet the real Richard Murdock, but they soon will. Richard Mourdock has a troubling record, from repeatedly missing official meetings to repeatedly accepting illegal tax breaks to making bad junk bond bets with Hoosiers’ pensions," American Action Network communications director Dan Conston said in a statement. "Sen. Dick Lugar is the right conservative for Indiana – and he will win this November. We’re investing in this race now because a Mourdock primary victory would only embolden Harry Reid and his liberal allies this November.” 

American Action Network will be spending almost $600,000 on anti-Mourdock ads in Indiana. That's probably not much less than the total amount of funds Mourdock raised in 2011. Good thing I don't watch local stations too often.

Lugar's camp seems to be focusing a lot more on Mourdock's record as Treasurer, which honestly hasn't been too great. While there's been nothing from the campaign, there's been more discussion on the Twitter and blogging world regarding statement's Mourdock has made regarding his "not attending" (putting it politely) the Vietnam war.

[LINCOLN REPUBLICAN]

80  years old.

Time for new blood.

[Jayhawker]

80  years old.

Time for new blood.

You don't want President Romney to have to deal with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, do you?

[redcommander]

80  years old.

Time for new blood.

You don't want President Romney to have to deal with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, do you?

He's not going to. If Indiana is remotely close on election night, Obama will have already won reelection. There's no way is Romney runs a remotely decent campaign that Joe Donnelly is going to be elected senator.

[Jayhawker]

80  years old.

Time for new blood.

You don't want President Romney to have to deal with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, do you?

He's not going to. If Indiana is remotely close on election night, Obama will have already won reelection. There's no way is Romney runs a remotely decent campaign that Joe Donnelly is going to be elected senator.

What? Presidential race is often not tied with Senatorial races. See Maine 2008. Or Vermont in the Gubernatorial race.

[Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Governors should never be compared to Senate and Presidential races.


On the flip side, Senate races often do follow the Presidential results in this partisan era. There are exceptions, like a Collins or yes Lugar who could win by a wide margin while the Democrats take the state. That "endeered incumbency" effect only happens to incumbents.

There is also a populist challenger/outsider effect that tends to benefit certain Democrats running for open seats against marginal/weak Republicans. A good example of this would be Mark Warner in Virginia.  

If Mourdock nationalizes the race, he should be fine provided Obama doesn't win the state.

[Jayhawker]

If Mourdock nationalizes the race, he should be fine provided Obama doesn't win the state.

Still, I doubt that. The Tea Party supports Mourdock, but just about everyone else is wary of him. It's difficult to win any election if you don't have your party's establishment backing you 100%. Donnelly also isn't a far-left liberal, so he may be able to somewhat distance himself from Obama. I think he did that in his successful reelection in 2010.

[Jayhawker]

http://www.therepublic.com/view/story/decb5e5034ee4b9a9ac20d63139c6438/IN--Indiana-Senate-Investigation/

INDIANAPOLIS — Indiana Treasurer Richard Mourdock's campaign has had its access to a critical campaign tool revoked by the Indiana Republican Party.

Mourdock campaign manager Jim Holden wrote in a March 14 email obtained by the Associated Press that Mourdock staffers should "start pillaging email addresses" from a voter database used by all Indiana Republicans.

    Mourdock campaign manager Jim Holden wrote in a March 14 email obtained by the Associated Press that Mourdock staffers should "start pillaging email addresses" from a voter database used by all Indiana Republicans.

A Republican familiar with the problem says the Mourdock campaign's access to the database was revoked shortly after the email was discovered. The source spoke on condition of anonymity because the investigation is ongoing.

A Mourdock campaign spokesman calls the email a "joke" taken out of context.

Indiana Republican Party leaders met Wednesday to discuss how to handle the problem.

Party chairman Eric Holcomb is declining comment. He says he wants to keep the discussion in-house.

[Is JCL in mushy sappy love]

Tmfth, you got Daniels on your side. Daniels should endorse Ron Paul as he's much closer in views than Mitt. I'm not surprised he endorsed Lugar. Being a Lugar protage and all.

[Sam Spade]

Sure, Lugar can't lose whereas Mourdock can.  But the seat is unlikely to flip regardless, and it has not yet been proven that Donnelly is a top-tier candidate.  Sure, he held on in 2010, but he was running against a complete nut.

[MilesC56]

Sure, Lugar can't lose whereas Mourdock can.  But the seat is unlikely to flip regardless, and it has not yet been proven that Donnelly is a top-tier candidate.  Sure, he held on in 2010, but he was running against a complete nut.

I think that, other than Evan Bayh, Donnelly was the Democrat's best candidate.

[Sam Spade]

Sure, Lugar can't lose whereas Mourdock can.  But the seat is unlikely to flip regardless, and it has not yet been proven that Donnelly is a top-tier candidate.  Sure, he held on in 2010, but he was running against a complete nut.

I think that, other than Evan Bayh, Donnelly was the Democrat's best candidate.

I think there are a couple of more proven candidates than Donnelly, but I doubt they would have run, and neither would have Evan Bayh.  So, we basically agree.  But that does not necessarily mean Donnelly is a top-tier candidate - there is a distinction.

[Is JCL in mushy sappy love]

Sure, Lugar can't lose whereas Mourdock can.  But the seat is unlikely to flip regardless, and it has not yet been proven that Donnelly is a top-tier candidate.  Sure, he held on in 2010, but he was running against a complete nut.

Jacki Walorski is not a nut.

[Jayhawker]

Sure, Lugar can't lose whereas Mourdock can.  But the seat is unlikely to flip regardless, and it has not yet been proven that Donnelly is a top-tier candidate.  Sure, he held on in 2010, but he was running against a complete nut.

Jacki Walorski is not a nut.

Yeah - I'm fairly confident that she will win the 2nd this year. She would probably even beat Donnelly with the new boundaries.

Mourdock has been receiving a lot of negative press here for his incident with the state's email database. Lugar's really starting to hit him on the airwaves, also.

If Mourdock loses, he can thank his manager, Holden (Eric, maybe is the first name). He's completely botched the campaign, getting in a physical shove match last year, focusing on tea party groups rather than counties, scheduling conflicts, etc. Lugar's going to win this because his campaign is very organized at every level.

[RogueBeaver]

Palin endorses Mourdock. I think this race will, as is often the case, come down to who turns out to vote.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0412/75694.html

[redcommander]

Palin endorses Mourdock. I think this race will, as is often the case, come down to who turns out to vote.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0412/75694.html

I'm glad that Palin actually endorsed him. Perhaps this will be enough to solidify momentum. Maybe she and Mourdock could do a couple of rallies together to get publicity?

[RogueBeaver]

A pro-Lugar PAC is pulling out. Too bad Indiana law doesn't allow for automated polling, otherwise PPP could tell us what's going on. McCain did a pro-Lugar ad, Citizens United a pro-Mourdock one.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-haberman/2012/04/mccain-cuts-radio-ad-for-lugar-121885.html

http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-haberman/2012/04/citizens-united-to-go-on-air-for-mourdock-121903.html

http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-haberman/2012/04/american-action-network-pulls-out-of-lugar-race-121898.html

[MilesC56]

This may have already been discussed, but how's the Democratic primary in district 9 looking? What would General Jonathan George's chances be if he gets to the general election?

[Jayhawker]

This may have already been discussed, but how's the Democratic primary in district 9 looking? What would General Jonathan George's chances be if he gets to the general election?

The district is more conservative, but there's been some grumblings about Youngs job performance. Definatly will be under 10 points, but not sure if Dems can win.

[Jayhawker]

Last poll had Lugar up 44-42. I want to say it was Magellan, but I can't recall for sure...

How the race is breaking down here:

Mourdock - Receiving momentum for the Palin and Bachmann endorsements as in media coverage. On the flip side, anyone who likes them probably already supported Mourdock, and this could potentially turn undecided voters who are more mainstream away from his campaign.

Lugar - Has received a flood of newspaper endorsements and his supporters are doing great work (myself included) at getting editorials in the paper. It's about impossible to pick up a paper in this state and not see a positive article on Senator Lugar.

Advertising-wise, Lugar has an edge, which is to be expected. Was on the ground down in Southern Indiana doing disaster relief and saw more Mourdock signs down there, which is to be expected.

Momentum isn't breaking at the last moment for either, and I doubt it will. It'll largely be a turnout competition, and to be honest, while his supporters aren't as energetic, Lugar has a better organization in-state. There will be poll workers at practically every precinct in my county for Lugar...not the case for Mourdock, or at least as of this evening.

I'm holding off on a prediction - I feel slightly sick to my stomach, which has me worried Mourdock may pull off an upset. Gotta remember - many Hoosiers have a very positive view of Lugar, and he should receive a decent chunk of the vote from voters who have no clue who to vote for but recognize his name, as well as Independents and Democrats. There is no "Democrats for Mourdock" drive going here to speak of.

LUGAR 2012!

[Senator X]

Last poll had Lugar up 44-42. I want to say it was Magellan, but I can't recall for sure...

How the race is breaking down here:

Mourdock - Receiving momentum for the Palin and Bachmann endorsements as in media coverage. On the flip side, anyone who likes them probably already supported Mourdock, and this could potentially turn undecided voters who are more mainstream away from his campaign.

Lugar - Has received a flood of newspaper endorsements and his supporters are doing great work (myself included) at getting editorials in the paper. It's about impossible to pick up a paper in this state and not see a positive article on Senator Lugar.

Advertising-wise, Lugar has an edge, which is to be expected. Was on the ground down in Southern Indiana doing disaster relief and saw more Mourdock signs down there, which is to be expected.

Momentum isn't breaking at the last moment for either, and I doubt it will. It'll largely be a turnout competition, and to be honest, while his supporters aren't as energetic, Lugar has a better organization in-state. There will be poll workers at practically every precinct in my county for Lugar...not the case for Mourdock, or at least as of this evening.

I'm holding off on a prediction - I feel slightly sick to my stomach, which has me worried Mourdock may pull off an upset. Gotta remember - many Hoosiers have a very positive view of Lugar, and he should receive a decent chunk of the vote from voters who have no clue who to vote for but recognize his name, as well as Independents and Democrats. There is no "Democrats for Mourdock" drive going here to speak of.

LUGAR 2012!

Even though I'd love to see a Democrat in this seat (and I do think Donnelly COULD beat Mourdock, though it would be a tough battle), I honestly think the country is better served by having more Republicans in Congress who don't see the anyone with different political views as "the enemy."  Although I disagree with many of his positions, Lugar is one of the better members of the current Republican Senate caucus (not saying much, but still, he's always seemed like a decent enough guy).  So I hope Lugar wins the primary, even though there's no way Donnelly can beat him.  Unfortunately, don't think there is much of a chance of Lugar winning and could easily see him losing by a larger than expected margin.  Mourdock has the momentum in the primary, as best as I can tell.  If Mourdock wins the primary though, then Donnelly 2012!